Snapshot: WTI crude has tumbled below $75 per barrel, its lowest level since early March, as supply-side risk premium evaporates following an interim US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reopening this Persian Gulf artery clears the way for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq to restart millions of barrels of sidelined capacity. Ahead of the New York open, the market is looking to the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and Jobless Claims data to gauge demand-side resilience following yesterday’s FOMC policy updates.
- Physical tightness provides a structural floor, with Cushing inventories sitting near 20 million barrels, suggesting physical buyers will emerge if prices approach $73.00.
- The near-term risk is a demand-side flush during the NY session if the 08:30 ET Jobless Claims print softer than the 225k forecast, which would amplify today’s supply shock.
Bias into NY: We are tactically bearish targeting a test of $73.50, as the return of Persian Gulf supply dominates the tape, though a softer US dollar index at 119.50 should limit a total collapse. We prefer selling rallies up to $76.20.