Snapshot: USD/CHF is consolidating near the 0.8800 level following the SNB’s decision at 09:30 CET to hold its policy rate steady at 0.00%. While the central bank raised its intermediate CPI projections, its explicit warning that it stands ready to activate FX interventions to curb safe-haven Swiss Franc strength has successfully capped currency upside ahead of the NY session.
- The SNB’s hawkishly revised inflation path and reluctance to ease further today suggest a higher threshold for negative interest rates, cementing strong structural support for the Swiss Franc near the 0.8750 zone.
- The key directional catalyst now shifts to the 08:30 ET US claims and Philly Fed prints, where any soft numbers will trigger a USD/CHF slide as US 10Y real yields continue to slip below 2.14%.
Bias into NY: We lean bearish USD/CHF toward 0.8740. The SNB’s policy hold has set a firm floor under the Swiss Franc, leaving the pair highly vulnerable to a dollar-led pullback if the 08:30 ET US data underwhelms.