Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,850, testing the lower end of its recent range. Overnight action saw BTC briefly dip below $67,500 before a slight bounce. This level represents a key area of support, with the next major level down around $66,000. BTC closed yesterday’s NY session near $68,200.
What’s driving it: Bitcoin’s price action is currently weighed down by softer spot ETF inflows and balanced Binance funding rates, suggesting a lack of strong conviction amongst leveraged traders. The fact that funding remains balanced even as price tests the lows suggests the market is content to fade rallies. More broadly, the rising US 10Y real yield is creating a headwind for risk assets and precious metals, translating into some risk aversion here, as well. The modest non-commercial net-long positioning implies limited squeeze risk even if price reverses.
- Binance BTCUSDT perp funding at a neutral 0.0063% per 8h.
- US 10Y Real Yield is up 5bp d/d to 2.18%, creating headwinds for gold and BTC.
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial Bitcoin positioning at a moderately long 5.3% of open interest.
NY session focus: The 08:30 ET release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims will be closely watched for signals on the US economy’s strength. Focus will be on whether a weak print fuels a risk-on bid and a short squeeze in BTC. Keep an eye on $68,500 as the first key level to break for bulls; below $67,500 opens a test of $66,000. The DDC purchase of 200 BTC is a minor positive but unlikely to be a major driver. The pain trade is a sustained break above $70,000, squeezing shorts and reigniting bullish sentiment.