Snapshot: WTI crude futures are holding above $101.00, anticipating volatility from this morning’s 08:30 ET US CPI release. Concerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions remain a key supportive factor, but the domestic data looms largest near-term.
- Watch for a break above $102.00 on a hot CPI print, potentially targeting last week’s highs.
- Downside risk exists if CPI misses, potentially triggering a retest of $100.00.
Bias into NY: Sideways with an upward tilt predicated on geopolitical risks and tight supply, but awaiting the CPI data to confirm the next directional move. We see potential for a spike higher if core CPI prints above 0.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed will need to maintain its hawkish stance.