Snapshot: AUD/USD sits near 0.7200, largely unmoved as markets await Australian Wage Price Index data due at 11:30 AEST. The RBA’s reluctance to commit to a rate cut path, highlighted by Governor Bullock’s comments about “uneven” inflation progress, continues to support the currency.
- Watch for a break above 0.7230, the recent high, which could trigger further short covering.
- Squeeze risk is elevated given the crowded long AUD positioning (96th percentile). A weaker-than-expected Wage Price Index print could spark a sharp move lower.
Bias into NY: Neutral. The domestic focus remains on the upcoming Wage Price Index; a strong print supports current RBA stance, while a weak number opens the door for a downside surprise, amplified by the crowded long positioning.