Snapshot: AUD/USD is holding firm, underpinned by hawkish RBA expectations despite the last hold, as markets anticipate a potential rate hike as soon as the May 20th meeting. A hawkish print on US ISM Manufacturing Prices at 10:00 ET could challenge the Aussie’s ascent.
- Watch for resistance around 0.7220; a break above could trigger further gains.
- Squeeze risk is elevated given the crowded long positioning; a dovish surprise or risk-off sentiment could trigger a sharp reversal.
Bias into NY: The bias remains cautiously bullish on AUD/USD, contingent on data and RBA tone, targeting 0.7250. A significantly stronger USD, driven by surprisingly hawkish ISM data, could quickly negate this setup.