Snapshot: WTI crude futures hold near $105, underpinned by a lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations, coupled with persistent concerns around global supply. Focus today shifts to the ISM Manufacturing data at 10:00 ET, specifically the Prices Paid component which is expected to show continued inflationary pressure.
- Failure to break above $106.00 could signal a near-term top.
- Geopolitical risks remain elevated; any escalation could trigger a sharp rally.
Bias into NY: Bullish, with a target of $107.00. Tightening supply dynamics, evidenced by record US crude exports, coupled with a moderately long speculative positioning, should keep the pressure on the upside. A strong ISM Manufacturing Prices print at 10:00 ET would likely amplify this move.