Where we are: Bitcoin is currently trading at $76,265, up $361 or 0.48% on the day. The intraday range has been relatively contained between $75,279 and $76,412. This level represents a modest recovery above yesterday’s NY close after a soft start to the week.
What’s driving it: The immediate driver is balanced funding in the BTC perpetual market, with Binance BTCUSDT perps showing funding at 0.0040% per 8 hours (annualized around 4.38%), signalling neither excessive bullishness nor bearishness. Spot BTC ETF net flow data remains outstanding, so the market awaits this key input to gauge underlying demand. Today’s US data dump (08:30 ET) will be a major factor, with potential for significant volatility depending on whether the GDP, Core PCE, and Employment Cost Index all corroborate a higher-for-longer narrative.
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions in Bitcoin at +2,071 contracts, down 122 week-on-week but still in the 90th percentile of the 52-week range. This elevated long positioning suggests potential for a squeeze if incoming data disappoints bulls.
- The 10Y Breakeven Inflation rate sits at 2.46%, up 2bp d/d, indicating some inflationary pressure.
- The US 10Y real yield (TIPS) is rising, last at 1.92%, posing a headwind to gold and potentially to Bitcoin as well.
NY session focus: All eyes are on the 08:30 ET data releases. Stronger-than-expected GDP and Core PCE could trigger a risk-off move, pushing the dollar higher and pressuring Bitcoin toward the $75,000 level. Weaker prints could fuel a rally towards the $77,000-78,000 area. Traders will also be closely watching ETF flows as they come in. The working trade is to sell rallies into resistance ahead of the data. The at-risk trade is assuming a breakout without confirmation from the 08:30 ET prints. The pain trade here would be a significant upside surprise in risk assets, driven by a soft landing narrative taking hold, forcing shorts to cover aggressively into the weekend.