Snapshot: WTI crude has steadied near $77 per barrel, on track for a painful 10% weekly decline as physical shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz show tentative signs of normalization. The successful transit of nearly 10 million barrels yesterday, which featured the first Saudi-owned tankers moving since the conflict began three months ago, has rapidly drained the geopolitical risk premium from the market.
- Key physical metrics reveal a Friday morning lull with zero outbound vessels leaving the Persian Gulf, suggesting the initial post-conflict surge in tanker movements is pausing to establish a fresh trading floor above $76.00.
- Watch for any surprise headlines out of Switzerland regarding the delayed US-Iran peace talks, as any signs of diplomatic collapse could quickly squeeze a market that has aggressively shed long exposure this week.
Bias into NY: We favor selling rallies with a tactical target of $75.50, as the resumption of regional flows remains the dominant physical driver. This downside bias is structurally reinforced by a broader macro headwind, as rising US 10-year real yields at 2.23% continue to cap broader commodity sector inflows.