Snapshot: USD/CHF currently trades at 0.7831, up 0.10% from the previous session, driven by the SNB’s recent 25bp rate cut to 0.25% in March and Schlegel’s indication of potentially returning to negative rates. Today’s catalyst is the persistent CHF strength alongside near-zero headline CPI, keeping the SNB’s easing posture prominent.
- Watch for further SNB communications regarding FX intervention as a key non-rate lever to manage CHF strength.
- Risk: Any upside surprise in US data this week could amplify USD strength, accelerating the USD/CHF move higher.
Bias into NY: Bullish USD/CHF targeting 0.7850 as the SNB’s active easing bias remains the dominant factor, amplified by moderately short positioning in CHF.