Snapshot: USD/CHF sits at 0.7881, up 0.11% today. The Swiss National Bank’s recent rate cut to 0.25% and openness to negative rates are weighing on the Swiss Franc. Today’s 08:30 ET US data (Philly Fed, jobless claims) offers a directional cue.
- Watch for a break above 0.7900, which could trigger further USD/CHF upside.
- Risk: A sharp deterioration in US data, especially if risk-off sentiment spikes the VIX, could offer the CHF a haven bid despite the SNB’s stance.
Bias into NY: Mildly bullish USD/CHF as the SNB’s dovish stance keeps the pressure on the Franc, reinforced by rising US 2Y and 10Y yields. We target 0.7925 into the close.