Snapshot: USD/CHF trades near 0.7800, pressured by the SNB’s active easing posture. The central bank’s recent 25bp rate cut and readiness to intervene in FX markets are capping upside. Today’s US ISM data at 10:00 ET may offer a temporary reprieve, but the underlying trend favors CHF strength.
- Watch 0.7750; break opens a test of YTD lows.
- Upside risk stems from significantly stronger-than-expected ISM prints, sparking a risk-off dollar bid.
Bias into NY: Short USD/CHF. The SNB’s commitment to managing CHF strength, coupled with moderately short positioning, suggests further downside pressure toward 0.7700 unless ISM surprises strongly to the upside.