Snapshot: USD/CHF is holding around 0.7820, underpinned by the SNB’s active easing posture. Recent SNB communications highlight their focus on implementing monetary policy and managing money market debt register claims. Traders are watching US Retail Sales data at 08:30 ET for directional cues.
- Watch for a break above 0.7830 as a sign of further USD strength.
- The risk is a surprise dovish twist from Retail Sales print, potentially triggering a CHF rebound.
Bias into NY: We remain cautiously bearish on the Swiss Franc, targeting 0.7850, contingent on a solid US Retail Sales print that reinforces the US yield advantage. Positioning is only moderately short so a squeeze is not imminent.