Snapshot: USD/CHF trades at 0.7819, down -0.27% on the session, as the SNB’s active easing posture continues to weigh on the Franc. Recent SNB balance sheet data released this morning reinforces the central bank’s commitment to managing currency strength.
- Watch for continued pressure on the CHF as the SNB maintains its negative-rate optionality and FX intervention readiness. A break above 0.7847 would suggest a temporary reprieve.
- Risk: Geopolitical tensions highlighted by the Trump administration’s stance on Oman could create haven demand for the CHF, providing unexpected support.
Bias into NY: Expect continued USD/CHF upside toward 0.7850, driven by the SNB’s dovish stance and the wide US-CH 10Y yield spread of +405bp, even as US futures show mixed signals. This morning’s SNB balance sheet data reinforces the easing narrative.