Snapshot: The Swiss Franc is holding steady near 0.8000 against the dollar following the SNB’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at 09:30 CET today. Although the central bank upgraded its inflation path through 2028, the explicit warning on FX intervention readiness to curb currency strength signals that the SNB remains a highly active player. This domestic policy backstop effectively caps USD/CHF upside ahead of the key US data slate.
- The SNB’s updated inflation forecasts and lingering threat of active FX sales build a strong structural defense for CHF, limiting upside breakout attempts beyond the 0.8050 resistance zone.
- With speculative positioning sitting moderately short at the 29th percentile, a spike in the VIX to 18.44 makes CHF highly sensitive to any downside surprises in the 08:30 ET US Unemployment Claims.
Bias into NY: We are tactical buyers of the Franc, targeting USD/CHF down to 0.7950, as the SNB’s active stance combined with defensive risk positioning across G10 limits room for the dollar to run higher.