Snapshot: The Swiss Franc holds steady near the 0.80 level against the greenback after the SNB kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its 09:30 CET meeting. Although growth forecasts were left unchanged, policymakers revised medium-term inflation projections upward and explicitly sharpened their language, warning they are ready to active intervene in the FX market to curb Franc strength. Today’s macro catalyst shifts to the US session, with Philly Fed and weekly jobless claims printing at 08:30 ET.
- Immediate CHF support sits firmly at the 0.8000 level, bolstered by the SNB’s upwardly revised inflation forecasts and Schlegel’s active posture on currency intervention.
- Speculative short positioning has stretched to the 29th percentile (-36,665 contracts), leaving the market vulnerable to a squeeze should US 10Y real yields continue their slide below 2.14%.
Bias into NY: We favor a selective long Swissy bias, targeting USD/CHF downside toward 0.7960, as the SNB’s active intervention posture effectively caps major upside, particularly if softer US manufacturing data triggers a broader dollar pullback.