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Regime: Risk-on relief dominates the session as a landmark Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz collapse energy prices, completely overshadowing hawkish Fed undertones and driving equity futures sharply higher while the DXY consolidates near 100.60 and the VIX drifts to 16.41. Today’s market themes: Geopolitical supply…
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Where we are: Bitcoin is trading softer this morning around $65,800, sliding through the European session despite yesterday’s headlines of an Iran peace deal. The overnight range has been capped tight near $66,500, with spot struggling to mount any meaningful recovery after failing to reclaim its 50-day moving average. We are…
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Where we are: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 100.60, holding near its highest level since May 2025 as the European session progresses. This follows a powerful post-FOMC extension that has cleared major near-term resistance and set a bullish tone ahead of the North American open. Treasuries are staging…
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Where we are: The FTSE 100 has slumped over 1.0% intraday, trading heavily near session lows as the European cash session accelerates. The index has broken clean through its 20-day moving average, erasing the week’s previous gains and exposing key support at the psychological 8,120 mark. A painful cocktail of ex-dividend…
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Snapshot: The Australian Dollar is trading firmly above 0.7000, underpinned by the RBA holding its Cash Rate at 4.10% and Governor Bullock’s reluctance to ease policy amid sticky services inflation and a tight labour market. This domestic hawkishness, which has kept the odds of a final rate hike near 50%, faces…
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Regime: Highly risk-on across global equities but sharply risk-off across energy, as the dramatic de-escalation of physical supply risks following an interim US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggers an oil collapse and a massive stock relief rally, while the VIX steadies near 16.41. Today’s market themes: Theme 1:…
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Snapshot: WTI Crude has plunged below $75 per barrel, hitting its lowest level since early March, as a landmark US-Iran agreement paves the way to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. This massive physical supply shock completely overrides yesterday’s economic projections from the FOMC, turning all eyes to the 08:30 ET…
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Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 surged 1.65% to a fresh record close of 71,053, powered by immense domestic relief over secured supply chains and a broad-based rally in local mega-cap financials. The geopolitical agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz directly mitigates Japan’s structural energy-import vulnerabilities, driving down crude and prompting Japanese…
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Where we are: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm at 100.6, hovering near its highest level since May 2025 following yesterday’s post-FOMC surge. This aggressive extension has pushed the index past major near-term resistance, while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield consolidates at 4.457% after a volatile overnight session.…
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Snapshot: The DAX 40 has cleared the psychological 25,000 milestone, underpinned by the ECB’s latest wage tracker confirming stable wage pressures and cementing Germany’s HICP at the 2.0% target. This domestic disinflation narrative has been amplified by a -4.48% plunge in WTI crude to $84.65 following the US-Iran interim shipping agreement,…
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Where we are: S&P 500 futures are clawing back yesterday’s losses, currently trading 1.0% higher around the 5,475 level as cash traders prepare to reverse Wednesday’s late-session sell-off. The overnight action saw a solid recovery from yesterday’s steep decline, which saw the Dow plunge over 500 points after the FOMC delivered…
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Where we are: S&P 500 futures are clawing back yesterday’s losses, trading 1.0% higher as the London session transitions to New York. This rebound recaptures a significant portion of Wednesday’s late-day sell-off, which saw the Dow plunge over 500 points after touching intraday all-time highs. Technically, the index is stabilizing above…
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Snapshot: The Swiss Franc is holding firm near 0.8900 per dollar following the SNB’s decision at 09:30 CET to hold its policy rate at 0.00%. While the central bank upgraded its inflation forecasts through 2028, the key takeaway is Schlegel’s explicit readiness to conduct active FX interventions to curb safe-haven Swissy…
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Where we are: Gold is staging a solid recovery in early European trading, reclaiming the key $4,300 pivot to print at $4,308/oz as we approach the New York open. This push higher retraces a significant portion of Wednesday’s 2% sell-off, which was triggered by the Fed’s hawkish-leaning economic projections and Chair…
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Where we are: EUR/USD has slipped below the pivotal $1.1500 handle, currently trading near $1.1485 as London handing over to New York. The pair has spent the morning session grinding lower within a tight overnight range of $1.1475 to $1.1510, pressing against key multi-month support. We are trading well below yesterday’s…
