Snapshot: NZD/USD trades at 0.5964, up 0.42% on the day, largely tracking broader risk appetite as domestic catalysts remain light. The RBNZ’s firmly entrenched easing bias, signalled after the 25bp cut on April 9th, continues to weigh on the currency. Focus shifts to the 08:30 ET US jobs report, particularly given the RBNZ’s employment concerns.
- NZD positioning remains crowded short (17th percentile), raising the risk of a squeeze if the US data disappoints significantly.
- Watch for comments from President Trump at 12:00 ET; any renewed trade rhetoric could weigh on risk sentiment and, consequently, the Kiwi.
Bias into NY: Cautiously bullish, targeting a test of 0.5970 resistance. While the RBNZ’s dovish stance is a headwind, a weaker dollar following the US data could provide a temporary lift for the Kiwi.