Snapshot: The Aussie is holding firm above the 0.7000 handle, underpinned by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s reluctance to commit to a rate-cut path while services inflation remains sticky. While domestic data is in a quiet window today, the policy gap between a hawkish Governor Bullock and a shifting Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh continues to drive the pair’s underlying resilience. Today’s action will hinge on how US data at 08:30 ET feeds into the broader dollar narrative.
- The 0.7000 psychological level remains a crucial support pivot, especially with speculative net-long positioning having been trimmed by 23,652 contracts to +18,160, flushing out weaker momentum players.
- US Philly Fed and weekly jobless claims at 08:30 ET present the immediate volatility threat; a strong print could trigger a brief dollar squeeze, testing the Aussie’s near-term floor.
Bias into NY: We lean long AUD/USD on dips down to 0.6980, targeting a squeeze back toward 0.7050, as the RBA’s persistent 4.10% cash rate anchor outweighs US dollar strength, with the US 2Y yield resting at 4.05%.