Snapshot: The Aussie remains resilient above 0.7000, anchored by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s persistent reluctance to commit to a rate cut from 4.10% amid uneven services inflation. While the domestic calendar is clear today, the currency faces a double-headed US catalyst with Retail Sales at 08:30 ET and the FOMC decision at 14:00 ET.
- Solid RBA hawkishness—underpinned by Governor Bullock’s caution on uneven domestic inflation progress—keeps the 0.7000 handle as a firm structural floor, especially with CFTC speculator positioning holding a moderate long stance at the 63rd percentile.
- Any dovish shift in the FOMC’s economic projections at 14:00 ET or soft Retail Sales at 08:30 ET will likely supercharge the Aussie, capitalizing on falling US real yields which currently sit at 2.15%.
Bias into NY: We lean bullish into the New York session, targeting a move toward 0.7050; the RBA’s stubborn rate hold at 4.10% establishes a high-yielding, defensive base that is well-positioned to exploit any soft US data or dovish Fed commentary.