Snapshot: The Aussie holds ground just above the 0.7000 handle, underpinned by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s persistent reluctance to pivot toward rate cuts while services inflation remains uneven. This hawkish domestic stance insulates the currency ahead of the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and weekly jobless claims data at 08:30 ET. The primary driver remains Bullock’s caution over a tight labor market, which keeps policy restricted at 4.10%.
- A tight domestic labor market and sticky services inflation backstop the RBA’s 4.10% policy floor, keeping AUD/USD dips well-defended around the 0.6980/0.7000 support zone.
- Tactical downside risk stems from today’s 08:30 ET US macro prints, where a hot Philly Fed reading could trigger a USD bounce under the Fed’s newly hawkish Warsh regime.
Bias into NY: We hold a cautious upside bias targeting 0.7050, as the RBA’s stubborn refusal to cut rates overrides global risk headwinds and soft oil prices. Any post-data dips toward 0.6980 look like buying opportunities.