Snapshot: EUR/GBP trades at 0.8673, up 0.08% on the day. The divergence between the ECB’s mild easing bias and the BoE’s cautious stance continues to weigh on the cross. All eyes are on BOE Gov Bailey’s speech at 09:20 London.
- The 0.8660 level is the immediate support zone, a break of which could trigger further downside.
- Risk: a hawkish surprise from Bailey could fuel a Sterling squeeze, given the relatively short GBP positioning after recent political noise.
Bias into NY: We favour fading rallies towards 0.8685, targeting a move back towards the day’s low. The hawkish BoE tilt should continue to underpin Sterling, particularly if Bailey reinforces the data-dependent narrative this morning.