Snapshot: The DAX 40 has pared its recent gains to trade just below the 25,000 handle, pausing after six consecutive positive sessions as Eurozone inflation anchors firmly at the 2.0% target. While central bank commentary from Cipollone and Elderson keeps the focus on ECB policy normalization, a heavy ex-dividend drop in Volkswagen (-4%) is acting as the primary local weight. This healthy consolidation is well-supported by Goldman Sachs and Barclays raising their European equity targets, which limits any deep downside.
- Germany’s corporate landscape shows resilience as proposed EU tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrids spark a 1% recovery in BMW and Mercedes-Benz, helping to offset the dividend-related auto drag; we watch support at 24,850.
- Geopolitical friction in the Middle East and a rising VIX (now up 12% to 18.44) leave European cash vulnerable to cross-border risk-off flows, particularly if the US 08:30 ET macro prints trigger further selling in global fixed income.
Bias into NY: We lean structurally bullish and look to buy dips toward 24,850, targeting a retest of 25,100. Anchored 2.0% German inflation and upgraded investment targets provide a solid floor, even if rising US Treasury yields temporarily cap the upside.