Snapshot: The DAX 40 has drifted back toward the 24,800 level, weighed down by heavy selling in German auto heavyweights following BMW’s profit warning, even as domestic inflation concerns subside. Today’s critical domestic catalyst is ECB President Lagarde’s address at 12:50 CET, which follows fresh ECB wage tracker data confirming stable negotiated wage pressures for 2026.
- The ECB wage tracker confirms wage growth is stabilizing, cementing the Eurozone’s recent 2% HICP prints and supporting the case for further policy normalization despite the idiosyncratic corporate drag.
- The primary watch-item for the NY session is global risk appetite ahead of the Fed policy announcement and remarks from Kevin Warsh, where any upward shift in US 10-year yields from the current 4.47% level will exacerbate equity pressure.
Bias into NY: We hold a bearish bias on the German Index below 24,950, targeting a deeper pull to 24,650 as auto-sector damage dominates, though a dovish tone from Lagarde at 12:50 CET remains a tactical upside risk.