Snapshot: WTI crude is steadying near $77.00 per barrel this Friday, nursing a 10% weekly decline as physical flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz. While Thursday saw nearly 10 million barrels transit the strait—including the first Saudi-owned tankers in three months—today’s halt in outbound Persian Gulf shipments and delayed Swiss peace talks are keeping a temporary floor under prices. This physical supply stabilization offsets a broader risk-off mood, where the VIX has climbed to 18.44.
- Physical support is clustering around the $76.50–$77.00 region, where speculative net-longs have already been trimmed by 25,573 contracts to a clean 52nd percentile of open interest.
- Watch for headline risk out of Switzerland regarding the rescheduled US-Iran nuclear talks, as any sudden diplomatic breakthrough would open the door to further downside toward the $75.00 handle.
Bias into NY: We lean tactically bearish below $78.20 into the New York open, expecting physical supply normalization to pressure the strip, with the slide amplified by a firmer US 10-year real yield at 2.23%.