Snapshot: WTI crude has steadied near $77 per barrel on Friday, but remains on track for a bruising 10% weekly decline as the geopolitical supply premium built up over three months of conflict rapidly evaporates. Physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz show tentative signs of normalization after nearly 10 million barrels transited yesterday, including the first Saudi-owned tankers to move since the conflict began, which has heavily outweighed news of delayed US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland.
- Hormuz physical flows: While no outbound vessels were seen leaving the Persian Gulf on Friday morning, the clearing of the transit bottleneck keeps near-term physical supply ample and caps WTI upside below $78.50.
- Positioning cushion: Speculator positioning sits at just the 52nd percentile (+130,301 contracts), indicating a lack of extreme long-squeeze risk but offering little structural support if the key $75.00 psychological level is tested.
Bias into NY: Bias is bearish for WTI toward $75.50 into the New York open, as the normalization of physical shipments dominates desk flows, with a firm US dollar index at 119.50 and rising 10-year real yields at 2.23% acting as secondary macro headwinds.