Snapshot: WTI crude has steadied near $77 per barrel, on track for a steep 10% weekly loss as physical supply disruptions in the Middle East resolve. Persian Gulf transits saw a temporary surge of nearly 10 million barrels yesterday, though today’s pause in outbound shipments and delayed US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland are keeping price action volatile ahead of the NY open.
- The technical picture shows $77.00 acting as a critical psychological anchor; a sustained break below this level targets the $75.00 handle as the geopolitical risk premium deflates.
- For the NY session, monitor physical flow reports out of the Persian Gulf and any Swiss headline updates, where a sudden revival of US-Iran negotiations could trigger fresh selling.
Bias into NY: We are tactically bearish and look to sell rallies toward $78.20, targeting a move to $75.50 as physical supply realities return to the forefront. This downside bias is supported by a broader risk-off tone, though a weaker USD Broad Index at 119.5073 may cushion the absolute downside limit.