Category: US

Asset Summary – Friday, 10 October

GBPUSD faces downward pressure as the British pound weakens against a strengthening dollar amid anxiety surrounding the upcoming UK budget. The anticipation of tax increases to achieve fiscal goals is raising concerns about the potential negative impact on the already vulnerable UK economy, further diminishing the pound’s appeal. While modest growth is predicted for the remainder of 2025, persistent inflation, twice the Bank of England’s target, coupled with delayed expectations for interest rate cuts until April next year and a cautious approach from the BoE favoring inflation control over growth initiatives, suggests a challenging outlook for the currency pair, potentially favoring dollar strength in the near to medium term.

EURUSD faces downward pressure due to a combination of political uncertainty in France and concerning economic data from Germany. The euro’s weakness stems from investor anxiety surrounding potential political instability in France, although indications of avoiding snap elections offer some reassurance. However, this is counteracted by disappointing German export and import figures, coupled with prior declines in industrial output and factory orders, painting a concerning picture for the Eurozone economy overall. These factors suggest a potentially weaker euro relative to the US dollar.

DOW JONES experienced a decline in the prior session and faces a mixed outlook. While US stock futures indicate a slight upward movement Friday, the failure of the Senate to reach a funding agreement and the ensuing government shutdown create uncertainty, particularly given the delay of crucial economic data that could inform the Federal Reserve’s policy. Investors are now focused on upcoming third-quarter earnings reports, especially from major banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan, for insights into the overall economy and the sustained momentum of artificial intelligence. However, positive results from companies like Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo, reflecting consistent consumer demand, could provide some support.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline, closing lower than its intraday high, indicating some downward pressure on the index. Several large companies trading without dividend entitlement contributed to this, as did significant losses in the banking sector due to specific news impacting HSBC and Lloyds. HSBC’s strategic shift concerning its Hang Seng unit and Lloyds’ potential compensation payouts weighed heavily on investor sentiment towards these stocks. However, gains in IAG, driven by positive earnings reports and an optimistic outlook from a major airline, alongside strength in base metal miners like Anglo American due to rising copper prices, partially offset these negative influences, suggesting a mixed trading environment.

GOLD is demonstrating a bullish trend, approaching potentially record-breaking territory, fueled by a confluence of factors. Economic anxiety, driven by the US government shutdown and concerns about the labor market, are contributing to its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Further bolstering its value are expectations that the US Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts, despite concerns about inflation. However, traders should be aware that the strengthening US dollar and profit-taking could lead to temporary pullbacks, as evidenced by the recent dip following ceasefire news in the Middle East. Overall, the environment suggests continued upward pressure on gold prices, but with potential volatility.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 9 October

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a confluence of factors. A strengthening US dollar, fueled by expectations of increased government spending in Japan and reinforced by the US Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, is weighing on the pair. Political instability in France is further unsettling European markets, adding to the pound’s woes. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s decision to maintain current interest rates, with rate cuts not anticipated until 2026 due to persistent high inflation, is failing to provide support for the British pound against the dollar.

EURUSD is facing downward pressure as political instability in France and weak economic performance in Germany create a challenging environment for the Euro. The prospect of early elections or a leadership change in France injects uncertainty, potentially discouraging investment in the Eurozone. Simultaneously, the significant drop in German industrial production, particularly in the automotive sector, signals a weakening economic engine for the region, further undermining the Euro’s strength against the US Dollar. These factors collectively contribute to the Euro’s depreciation and present a bearish outlook for the EURUSD pair.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook despite recent record highs in other major indexes. While technology stocks are fueling a broader market rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average itself ended flat in the previous session, suggesting it’s not fully participating in the tech-driven surge. Investors are likely evaluating Federal Reserve policy signals, with attention focused on upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Furthermore, upcoming earnings releases from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will likely provide clues regarding the broader economic environment, potentially influencing investor sentiment toward the Dow and its constituent companies. The mixed signals suggest possible near-term volatility for the Dow as investors reconcile tech sector strength with uncertainty in broader economic conditions.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, driven by a confluence of factors across various sectors. The surge in gold prices significantly benefited precious metal miners, contributing to the index’s overall gains. Optimism surrounding lower-than-anticipated costs for the UK car loan compensation scheme boosted banking stocks, with major lenders experiencing notable increases in share value. Furthermore, positive developments among base metal producers, including Anglo American’s support for a key project, further bolstered the index’s upward trajectory, collectively propelling the FTSE 100 to a new record high.

GOLD experienced a slight pullback after a period of significant gains, likely driven by investors securing profits and a perceived reduction in geopolitical tensions following a reported peace agreement. However, underlying factors continue to support a positive outlook for the metal. Economic uncertainty stemming from a US government shutdown, weakening labor market indicators, and the Federal Reserve’s inclination towards further interest rate cuts are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against potential inflation. These factors suggest that despite the temporary dip, the overall trend for gold remains upward.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 8 October

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a confluence of factors. The dollar’s resurgence, fueled by expectations of increased government spending following Japan’s election and reinforced by uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook and potential Fed rate cuts, is weighing on the pair. Simultaneously, political instability in France is unsettling European markets, further diminishing demand for the pound. Compounding these issues, the Bank of England’s reluctance to cut interest rates until 2026, driven by persistent inflation, makes the pound less attractive compared to currencies where easing monetary policy is anticipated. The expectation of no interest rate cuts for a long time erodes support for the GBPUSD pair.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as political instability in France intensifies, coupled with disappointing economic data from Germany and France. The Prime Minister’s resignation and the rising probability of early elections in France create uncertainty that weakens the Euro. Simultaneously, a larger-than-expected decline in German factory orders and a less-than-anticipated narrowing of France’s trade deficit further dampen the Euro’s appeal. The absence of progress in resolving the US government shutdown adds to the negative sentiment, making the EURUSD pair vulnerable to further declines.

DOW JONES faces a period of uncertainty as indicated by the slight movement in US stock futures following a downturn in the previous session. The index experienced a loss, reflecting broader market anxieties regarding the sustainability of the artificial intelligence-driven market surge and the impact of the ongoing government shutdown. Specifically, declines in other major indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, along with individual stock weaknesses like that of Oracle, contribute to a cautious outlook. The worries over a potential AI bubble mirroring the dot-com era, alongside the prolonged government shutdown and its effect on economic data, are likely to keep downward pressure on the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced little change in value following a minor decrease in the prior trading day. Declines in B&M, due to disappointing financial results and operational challenges, were countered by gains in Imperial Brands, supported by a large share buyback program and positive performance in key markets. Shell’s improved gas trading outlook also contributed to upward pressure, though losses in its chemicals division tempered overall gains. Recent data indicating a slight dip in UK house prices added a degree of caution to the market. The mixed performance of individual stocks and external economic indicators resulted in a largely stable trading environment.

GOLD is experiencing a substantial increase in value, driven by a confluence of factors that are likely to support continued upward momentum. Investors are seeking refuge in gold amid economic instability, fueled by a US government shutdown, political uncertainties in Europe and Asia, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This environment is further amplified by a weakening US dollar, consistent central bank buying, and significant inflows into gold-backed ETFs, all contributing to a positive outlook for gold’s value and trading activity.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 7 October

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a confluence of factors. The dollar’s resurgence, fueled by political instability in France and Japan’s potential for increased fiscal spending, is weighing on the pair. Domestically, the UK’s persistent inflation, particularly in essential sectors like food, energy, and housing, is delaying anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, further diminishing the pound’s appeal. The combination of a strengthening dollar and a less dovish Bank of England outlook is creating a challenging environment for the GBPUSD.

EURUSD is likely facing downward pressure as political instability in France weakens the Euro. The resignation of the French Prime Minister, coupled with the potential for contentious budget negotiations involving unpopular austerity measures, is creating uncertainty. Investors may perceive this as a negative signal for the Eurozone economy, leading them to sell Euros and consequently, pushing the EURUSD pair lower. The combination of a large deficit and the difficulties in implementing fiscal reforms further contributes to a bearish outlook for the currency pair.

DOW JONES faces uncertainty as a government shutdown lingers, raising concerns despite positive momentum in the broader market. Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs, the Dow experienced a slight dip, interrupting its recent upward trend. While advancements in AI, demonstrated by AMD’s surge due to its OpenAI deal, and anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut are boosting other sectors, the political gridlock presents a headwind for the Dow, potentially offsetting gains from positive technological and economic developments.

FTSE 100 experienced minimal movement following recent record highs, influenced by broader European market concerns stemming from political instability in France. A significant drop in Mondi’s share price, triggered by a pessimistic trading outlook, negatively impacted the index. Conversely, gains in BP and Shell, driven by OPEC+ production decisions and rising crude prices, provided upward momentum. Additionally, increases in gold miners like Fresnillo and Endeavour, fueled by record gold prices and anticipation of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, contributed positively. The upcoming Shawbrook IPO adds a new element to the London Stock Exchange landscape that might further influence investor sentiment.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, fueled by a confluence of factors. The ongoing US government shutdown creates economic uncertainty, hindering data collection and potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to implement further interest rate cuts. Market expectations of these rate cuts, coupled with political instability in France and Japan, are driving investors toward gold as a safe haven. Consistent gold purchases by China’s central bank further solidify its value. Supported by increased ETF inflows and a weaker dollar, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, indicating potential for continued price appreciation.

Asset Summary – Monday, 6 October

GBPUSD experienced a decline in value recently, closing at 1.3436 on October 6, 2025, representing a 0.34% decrease in a single day. Zooming out, the Pound has faced some headwinds over the last month, depreciating by 0.86%. However, looking at a longer time frame, the currency pair demonstrates a more positive trend, appreciating by 2.69% over the past year. This suggests a mixed performance for the GBP against the USD, with recent weakness contrasting with longer-term gains.

EURUSD is likely to experience upward pressure. The Eurozone’s inflation exceeding the ECB’s target alongside indications that current interest rates are appropriate suggests limited near-term easing. Simultaneously, the US dollar faces headwinds from anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerning signals in the US labor market, which could also be affected by a potential government shutdown. This contrasting policy outlook and economic uncertainty in the US creates an environment that favors the euro relative to the dollar.

DOW JONES is positioned for potential gains as indicated by rising US stock futures. While the government shutdown introduces uncertainty, the market appears to be looking beyond this temporary disruption. The index’s positive performance last week, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, suggests underlying bullish momentum. Gains in the technology and semiconductor sectors, spurred by developments in artificial intelligence, could further bolster the Dow. Additionally, growing anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to create a more favorable investment environment, potentially driving the index higher. Investors will closely monitor upcoming comments from central bank officials for confirmation of this policy outlook.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating a positive trend, having reached 9491 points on October 3, 2025, reflecting a 0.67% increase from the previous day’s trading. This upward movement is further substantiated by a 2.98% gain over the last month and a significant 14.62% rise compared to its value a year prior, suggesting a robust and growing market for this key UK index based on current CFD trading data.

GOLD is experiencing a significant upward trend, currently trading at record highs, primarily fueled by its reputation as a safe-haven investment during times of economic uncertainty. The ongoing US government shutdown, leading to delayed economic data releases, is amplifying these concerns. With traditional economic indicators unavailable, investors are turning to alternative data suggesting a weakening labor market, which strengthens expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This anticipation of lower rates, coupled with general economic and geopolitical instability, central bank purchases, and increased investment through Exchange Traded Funds, is contributing to a substantial increase in gold’s value. Market participants will be closely monitoring upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials for additional insights into the central bank’s monetary policy direction, which could further impact gold prices.