Category: US

  • S&P 500 Ready to Extend Gains After Ceasefire News – Wednesday, 6 May

    Where we are: The S&P 500 futures are trading at 7339.50, up 43 points, indicating a positive open for the New York session. The overnight range has been relatively tight, between 7293.75 and 7364.75. This level is well above yesterday’s cash close of 7259.20, suggesting follow-through buying pressure.

    What’s driving it: Risk appetite is surging on news of a potential ceasefire in the Iran-US war, leading to a broad rally in equities and a sharp decline in oil prices. While the domestic macro picture has been relatively quiet, the rising 10Y real yield continues to exert a headwind on gold. The strong earnings reports, particularly from AI-related companies, are adding fuel to the fire.

    • China’s call for a comprehensive ceasefire in the Iran-US war, triggering a slide in energy prices, is a major driver.
    • The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 08:15 ET is the key data point today.
    • Speculator positioning in S&P 500 futures remains modestly short (-100,522 contracts), but the week-on-week increase (+9,435) suggests some short covering is already underway.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on the 08:15 ET ADP release, which will set the tone for the session. Watch for the S&P 500 to test resistance at 7365 (overnight high), with a break above potentially opening the door to further gains. Support lies around 7294 (overnight low). The current trade is long equities, short crude. The trade at risk is short equities, given the positive sentiment and ceasefire news. The pain trade for the S&P 500 is a surprisingly strong ADP print, reigniting inflation fears and reversing the risk rally.

  • Nasdaq 100 Aims for New Highs on AI Optimism – Wednesday, 6 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures currently trade at 28443.25, up 0.66% on the day, consolidating the overnight gains. The intraday range spans from 28248.25 to 28632.75, hinting at potential for further upside. The cash Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25326.13 and has yet to fully catch up with the future’s optimism.

    What’s driving it: The rally in Nasdaq 100 futures is being fueled by a confluence of factors, primarily centered around optimism concerning potential breakthroughs in the Iran conflict and surging AI-related earnings. While real yields are up 4bp, that has been overshadowed by the prospect of cheaper oil and renewed earnings optimism. We need to keep an eye on how the 10Y responds as it has been more sensitive to the latest geopolitical news.

    • The surge in AMD (+20%) and Super Micro Computer (+15%) following strong earnings and forward guidance is boosting the entire AI infrastructure space, with Nvidia, Sandisk, Micron, and Intel also seeing gains.
    • Geopolitical developments surrounding a potential agreement with Iran are easing concerns about energy prices, contributing to a broader risk-on sentiment.
    • Speculator positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is crowded short (-2,322 contracts), making the index vulnerable to a squeeze if positive momentum continues.

    NY session focus: The key event for today will be the 08:15 ET release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. A print significantly above the 118K forecast could put pressure on the rally, prompting a reassessment of Fed policy expectations. Watch for the Nasdaq futures to test the intraday high of 28632.75; a break above could open the way to fresh record highs. Support lies around 28250. The long Nasdaq/short Russell trade continues to work, but be wary of a reversal if broader market participation returns. The pain trade is a hawkish surprise from today’s ADP print, catching the short-covering rally off guard.

  • Dow Futures Surge on Ceasefire Hopes, AI Boost – Wednesday, 6 May

    Where we are: Dow futures are currently trading at 49866, up 502 points or 1.02% on the day, having traded in a 49354-50060 range overnight. The cash Dow Jones closed yesterday near 49298 and is indicating a substantial gap-up open this morning. The Dow is outperforming broader market indices, currently showing greater gains than the S&P and Nasdaq futures.

    What’s driving it: The rally is primarily driven by growing optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a broad risk-on sentiment. Domestically, the 10Y real yield rose by 4bp yesterday, creating a gold headwind. Also contributing to the positive momentum are strong earnings reports, particularly from AI-related companies like AMD and Super Micro Computer, bolstering investor confidence in the tech sector and its wider impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    • The 10-year Breakeven Inflation rate fell by 3bp, reflecting easing inflation concerns.
    • China’s call for a comprehensive ceasefire appears to be a major catalyst.
    • Speculator positioning in Dow futures remains modestly short, at the 56th percentile, leaving room for short covering to amplify the rally.

    NY session focus: Keep an eye on the 08:15 ET release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to show an increase to 118K from the previous 62K. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce the risk-on move and push Dow futures towards the 50000 level. Conversely, a weaker number could trigger some profit-taking. Key levels to watch are resistance at 50000 and support around 49350. The working trade is long tech exposure within the Dow, while the at-risk trade is short oil-sensitive components. The pain trade would be a hawkish surprise from Bowman speech shifting expectations towards tighter monetary policy.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 5 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as S&P 500 futures test overnight highs and the VIX remains subdued below 17 despite geopolitical headlines and upcoming data.

    Today’s market themes:

    • RBA Rate Hike: Market anticipating an aggressive RBA hike, driving AUD strength and potential impact across Asia-Pac FX.
    • ISM Services & JOLTS: US economic data to set the tone for the NY session and further solidify Fed policy expectations.
    • Middle East Tensions: Geopolitical risks simmer, with eyes on oil supply disruptions and associated impact on risk sentiment.

    The setup: Focus remains on the RBA rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a 25bp hike to 4.35%. A larger hike or hawkish statement could further boost AUD, while a dovish surprise could lead to a sharp reversal. S&P 500 futures at 7261.75 need to hold to confirm risk-on, failure here triggers sell pressure. Watch US 10Y near 4.42% as a key sentiment indicator.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 14:30 AEST AUD: Cash Rate (forecast 4.35%, prior 4.10%)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Services PMI (forecast 53.7, prior 54.0)
    • 10:45 NZT NZD: Employment Change q/q (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed’s data dependence / US data strength / US yields.
      • Cross: Global growth concerns / risk aversion / EUR weakness.
      • Levels: Support 97.80, Resistance 98.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB policy divergence / moderate Eurozone HICP/ peripheral spreads
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-DE 10Y widening / risk-off flows.
      • Levels: Support 1.1670, Resistance 1.1700.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE’s caution / UK CPI near target / Gilt yields steady.
      • Cross: DXY influence / US-UK 10Y / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 1.3500, Resistance 1.3575.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ ultra-dovish stance / JGB yields capped / verbal intervention risk.
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / DXY strength / risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 157.00, Resistance 158.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC holding steady / CPI near target / WTI price action.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3600, Resistance 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish (pre-RBA), then volatile.
      • Domestic (AU): RBA decision / Inflation dynamics / Australia-China relations.
      • Cross: DXY impact / US-AU 10Y / risk.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7200.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): Employment data / RBNZ caution / New Zealand-China trade.
      • Cross: DXY / US-NZ 10Y / risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5850, Resistance 0.5900.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB policy / Swiss inflation / economic outlook.
      • Cross: DXY direction / safe-haven flows / Europe.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Depends on relative CB stance + yields.
      • Domestic: Relative monetary policies and yield differentials are dominant.
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment / potential cross-currency feedback loops.
      • Levels: Monitor key technical levels for each cross.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields falling / breakeven inflation firming / CB demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness / risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 4520, Resistance 4585.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strong industrial demand / inflation hedge narrative.
      • Cross: DXY weakness / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 7280, Resistance 7450.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): EIA stock data / OPEC supply policy / refining activity.
      • Cross: DXY direction / geopolitical risk premium.
      • Levels: WTI support 102.50, resistance 105.50.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus / LME inventory depletion / supply disruption.
      • Cross: Global growth proxy / DXY.
      • Levels: Support 585, Resistance 600.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season / Fed policy / US economic data.
      • Cross: VIX regime / global macro backdrop / US 10Y.
      • Levels: Futures support 7220, resistance 7270; cash S&P support 7170 and 7240.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech performance / AI enthusiasm / rising rates-priced-in.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX level.
      • Levels: Support at 27730, Resistance at 28000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): industrial sector earnings / cyclical names / banks.
      • Cross: Bond-yield impact / recession fears.
      • Levels: Support 49050, Resistance 49300.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength / Commodity prices (energy).
      • Cross: Global Risk Appetite.
      • Levels: Support 22420, Resistance 22600.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (DE): Eurozone recovery / German data / Bund yields.
      • Cross: US Tech Momentum / DXY / Risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 23990, Resistance 24400.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness benefit / earnings performance.
      • Cross: US tech sentiment / risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support 59250, Resistance 59700.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows / on-chain activity / regulations.
      • Cross: DXY influence / risk sentiment / Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support 79750, Resistance 81300.

    Positioning watch: The Yen and Nasdaq remain crowded shorts (squeeze on positive surprise), while AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin are crowded longs (squeeze on disappointment). CFTC data shows extreme positioning, making these assets vulnerable to outsized moves on data releases.

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the RBA, combined with a soft US ISM, would trigger a sharp AUD rally while simultaneously pressuring USD shorts, creating a significant “double squeeze” scenario.

  • DXY Tests 98.00 as Geopolitical Risk Boosts Greenback – Tuesday, 5 May

    Where we are: The DXY is currently trading at 98.26, up 0.26% on the day, having traded in a range of 97.83-98.42 so far. The index is testing resistance around the 98.00 level and has pushed higher against the prior NY close of 118.3926 (USD Broad Index). Bullish momentum is building.

    What’s driving it: Safe-haven demand is supporting the Dollar amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. The market fears a potential derailment of the US-Iran ceasefire and is pricing in a potential Fed response of further tightening to contain any resultant inflationary pressures. Domestically, the Fed remains in a patient hold stance, dependent on further disinflation in core services and a cooling in labor costs. The latest dot plot suggested only two cuts in 2026, reinforcing the hawkish narrative.

    • The 10Y Breakeven Inflation rate rose 2.0bp to 2.5%, further fueling rate-hike expectations.
    • US forces repelled Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial Dollar longs at the 92nd percentile, signaling squeeze risk if sentiment shifts.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on the 10:00 ET releases of ISM Services PMI (forecast 53.7), JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 6.86M), and New Home Sales (forecast 652K). Traders will scrutinize these releases for clues on the health of the US economy and their potential impact on Fed policy. A beat on the ISM could see the DXY testing 98.50, while a miss could trigger a pullback towards 97.80. The trade that’s working is fading risk-on rallies. The trade at risk is shorting the Dollar at these levels, given geopolitical uncertainty. The pain trade is a dovish surprise from the data, triggering a sharp Dollar sell-off and a risk-on surge.

  • S&P 500 Futures Test Overnight Highs Pre-Data – Tuesday, 5 May

    Where we are: S&P 500 futures are trading at 7261.75, up 32.25 points (+0.45%) and testing the overnight high of 7269.00. Cash closed yesterday at 7200.80, well below Friday’s record, but futures are attempting to build on the overnight recovery. The overnight range has been contained above 7224.00, suggesting some bottom-picking ahead of today’s key data.

    What’s driving it: The S&P 500 is finding support from a pullback in energy prices and a generally positive tone in earnings despite some disappointments. Falling real yields are also acting as a tailwind. Attention now turns to a raft of US data at 10:00 ET, including ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and New Home Sales, which will set the tone for the remainder of the session. A strong read on these numbers could reinforce bets of a hawkish Fed, while a miss would likely fuel further upside.

    • The 10Y real yield has fallen 3bp to 1.91% d/d, providing some respite for risk assets after the surge in yields last week.
    • Net non-commercial positioning in S&P 500 futures is modestly short at -100,522 contracts, which is the 75th percentile over the last 52 weeks, suggesting less room for further short covering, but also limits scope for a large long liquidation.
    • UBS strategists believe large caps are set to outperform small caps which may attract investors to large caps in SPX.

    NY session focus: The key focus today is the 10:00 ET data dump. The ISM Services PMI (forecast 53.7) will be particularly important in gauging the strength of the US economy. Watch for a break above the overnight high of 7269.00, which could trigger a move towards new record highs. Failure to break higher could see a retest of support around 7224.00. The trade that’s working is dip-buying in mega-cap tech. The trade at risk is shorting the S&P ahead of earnings season conclusion. The pain trade is a strong data print igniting a fresh surge in yields and a sharp S&P sell-off.

  • Nasdaq 100 Faces Resistance at 28,000 Amid Mixed Signals – Tuesday, 5 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq futures are trading at 27979.00, up 0.79% and near the session high of 28003.50. This follows a mixed cash session yesterday and a weaker close, although futures have gapped up overnight. Resistance is clearly forming around the 28,000 level, which has so far capped gains, while support comes in around 27730.

    What’s driving it: The near-term bounce in Nasdaq futures is being driven by a pullback in energy prices, providing some relief to inflation concerns. Despite a slight easing in the US 10Y yield to 4.422%, yesterday’s rise continues to cast a shadow, with inflation breakevens elevated. This rate environment, alongside strong earnings releases from key tech components, is creating a push-pull effect. The crowded short positioning in Nasdaq futures increases the risk of a squeeze on any positive data surprise. Furthermore, Intel’s potential Apple processor deal news adds to the positive sentiment, providing a catalyst beyond the broader macro picture.

    • Net non-commercial positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is at the 0th percentile, indicating a crowded short and significant squeeze potential.
    • 10Y Real Yields fell 3bps yesterday providing a tailwind to Gold, which could weigh on Nasdaq sentiment.
    • Europe’s tech-heavy DAX is outperforming, up 1.31%, suggesting some spillover effect into US tech sentiment.

    NY session focus: Today’s key event risk centers around the 10:00 ET releases of ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, both high-impact releases that could dictate intraday direction. Watch for a break above 28,000, which could trigger further short covering, while a move below 27730 could see a retest of yesterday’s lows. The ISM service print matters here — the trade that’s working is shorting any rally above 28,000, anticipating that higher yields will eventually weigh on tech valuations. The pain trade for the Nasdaq 100 is a strong ISM print that pushes yields higher and simultaneously squeezes shorts.

  • Dow Jones Awaits Services PMI Bounce – Tuesday, 5 May

    Where we are: The Dow futures currently trade at 49268, up 183 points or 0.37% on the day. The index is consolidating near the upper end of its overnight range (49060-49306) and holding above Friday’s cash close (48942) despite the cash market selloff. A risk bid is emerging, and has held after the EU open.

    What’s driving it: The near-term picture rests on US data and rates expectations. The Fed is still perceived as data-dependent, so today’s ISM Services PMI will be key. The relatively flat 2s10s spread suggests the market still expects some monetary easing, yet 10-year breakevens ticked up to 2.5%, hinting at persistent inflation, which may in turn restrain the Fed from easing too aggressively. DXY strength (+0.27% to 98.26) and slightly higher US yields are providing a mixed backdrop, while the 10Y real yield is tailing off.

    • The 10-year TIPS yield fell 3bp to 1.91%, a tailwind for gold and risk assets, despite nominal yields rising.
    • Dow Jones net non-commercial positioning is modestly short at -1,431 contracts, leaving some room for upside should the data surprise positively.
    • European equities are broadly higher, with the DAX leading the charge at +1.31% to 24328, underpinning the risk-on sentiment spilling into US futures.

    NY session focus: Focus turns to the 10:00 ET release of ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings, as well as New Home Sales. A strong PMI print above 54.0 could fuel hawkish Fed bets, potentially pressuring the Dow, while a weaker number could provide a boost. Watch for a break above 49306 in the futures, opening a path towards the all-time highs. The trade that’s working is long equities, but the risk is a hawkish surprise from the data. The pain trade is a sustained risk-off move triggered by a disappointing data set and rising real yields, which could see the Dow test 49000.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 4 May

    Regime: Risk-off, with escalating Middle East tensions driving haven demand and weighing on equities; VIX at 16.89.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical risk: Oil spike and risk-off sentiment due to heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
    • USD strength: Continued consolidation after recent gains, influenced by yield differentials and risk aversion.
    • ECB policy divergence: ECB hints at rate hikes clash with dovish undertones from BoJ and others.

    The setup: The spike in oil prices driven by Mideast tensions is fueling inflation fears and pressuring risk assets. Traders are pricing in a potential hawkish response from central banks, particularly the ECB, exacerbating the downside pressure on equities. Watch for further escalation in the Middle East, with a risk of a deeper equity sell-off if oil breaches $105 and 10Y yields rise further.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 15:30 ET CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral to bullish
      • Domestic (US): Fed on hold / Yield consolidation
      • Cross: Safe-haven flows / Global risk aversion
      • Levels: Support 118.50 / Resistance 119.00
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): ECB rate hike expectation / slow growth
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk-off flows
      • Levels: 1.1650 / 1.1750
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE cautious / Data dependent
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk aversion
      • Levels: 1.3550 / 1.3650
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish, but with intervention risk
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish / Yield curve control
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / Risk-off buying USD
      • Levels: 157.00 / 158.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious / WTI boost limited
      • Cross: DXY strength / US growth advantage
      • Levels: 1.3650 / 1.3700
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA dovish / Rate cut odds rise
      • Cross: DXY strength / China weakness / Risk-off
      • Levels: 0.7150 / 0.7250
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance continues
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk aversion
      • Levels: 0.5850 / 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing / Yield disadvantage
      • Cross: Safe-haven unwind / DXY strength
      • Levels: 0.7800 / 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Neutral, Neutral, Bullish
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance + yields
      • Cross: DXY / Risk / cross-of-crosses dynamics
      • Levels: 0.8500-0.8600 / 170.00-171.00 / 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields / Reduced haven demand
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk-off waning
      • Levels: 4500 / 4550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand lackluster
      • Cross: DXY strength / Risk-off waning
      • Levels: Lower toward 47
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Hormuz disruption / OPEC restraint
      • Cross: DXY influence / Risk regime
      • Levels: 100 / 105
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus needs affirmation
      • Cross: Global growth proxy / DXY
      • Levels: $5.00 / $5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings worries / Fed on hold / Rising yields
      • Cross: VIX spike / Geopolitical tension
      • Levels: 5100 / 5150
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yields / Mega-cap scrutiny
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX
      • Levels: 18250 / 18400
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical concerns / Bond sell-off
      • Cross: Bond-yield impact
      • Levels: 38500 / 39000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling level / Gilt impact
      • Cross: Global risk / US tone
      • Levels: 10300 / 10400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Bund pressure / EU outlook dimmed
      • Cross: US tech spillover / DXY
      • Levels: 23800 / 24200
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY rebound limiting gains
      • Cross: US tech / Risk regime
      • Levels: 59000 / 60000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow stalling / Funding rate high
      • Cross: DXY impact / Risk regime
      • Levels: $79000 / $81000

    Positioning watch: Dollar, Aussie, Copper and Bitcoin are crowded longs and vulnerable to disappointment; Yen, Kiwi, and Nasdaq are crowded shorts and vulnerable to squeezes. Watch for correlated reversals if headlines shift.

    The pain trade: A de-escalation of Middle East tensions, combined with surprisingly dovish comments from Macklem at 15:30 ET, could trigger a rapid unwinding of oil longs and a short squeeze in risk assets, particularly Nasdaq.

  • Dollar Consolidates Gains as Fed Patience Remains Key – Monday, 4 May

    Where we are: The DXY is trading around 118.75, consolidating overnight gains, following a period of sideways movement. This is slightly above Friday’s close. Key levels to watch are 119.00 as resistance and 118.50 as immediate support. The market appears to be waiting for fresh catalysts before committing to a direction.

    What’s driving it: The dollar’s strength is primarily underpinned by the Federal Reserve’s patient stance. The FOMC reaffirmed its data-dependent approach at the last meeting in March, with the dot plot signalling only two potential rate cuts in 2026. Rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are also contributing to the Greenback’s appeal as a safe haven. Meanwhile, Barclays recently joined the camp expecting no Fed rate cuts this year, reinforcing the higher-for-longer narrative that favors the dollar.

    • US 10Y real yields continue to fall, now at 1.94%, providing a tailwind for gold and indirectly supporting the dollar through inflation fears.
    • Speculator positioning in the dollar remains crowded long, at the 92nd percentile, increasing the risk of a sharp squeeze if data disappoints.
    • The 2s10s spread is at 0.51%, indicating a mildly positive yield curve, reflecting cautious optimism about the US economic outlook.

    NY session focus: All eyes will be on incoming US economic data, especially leading into the May 7th Fed meeting. Today, traders will be eyeing any further developments regarding Middle East tensions, which could impact risk sentiment. The 08:30 ET data print will be critical for intraday direction. The trade that’s working right now is fading risk rallies in G10, buying USD dips. The trade at risk is shorting USD into sticky inflation. The pain trade for the dollar is a surprisingly dovish tilt from the Fed combined with a significant de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

  • S&P 500 Braces for Mid-East Risks, Tech Strength – Monday, 4 May

    Where we are: S&P 500 futures are currently trading around 5120, holding steady after an overnight dip following reports of escalating tensions in the Middle East. The index remains within striking distance of its recent all-time highs, supported by underlying strength in tech earnings. The futures are slightly below Friday’s cash close despite a weaker VIX.

    What’s driving it: The conflicting reports of a strike on a US Navy vessel near Iran are injecting uncertainty into the market and prompting a cautious risk-off tone ahead of the NY open. Despite these geopolitical jitters, the domestic picture shows a modestly supportive backdrop. While the 2-year yield has retreated 4bp to 3.88%, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen 2bp to 2.48%, suggesting a flattening yield curve is in play. This backdrop is encouraging traders to see past short-term fears.

    • The VIX is down over 10% to 16.89, signaling a decline in implied volatility despite the Middle East headlines.
    • The 10-year real yield (TIPS) fell 2bp to 1.94%, providing a tailwind for gold.
    • Speculators remain modestly short S&P 500 futures, but net shorts have decreased, hinting at potential for a squeeze higher.

    NY session focus: The market will be closely monitoring any further developments regarding the situation in the Middle East, although analysts anticipate tech earnings to become more impactful as the week progresses. Traders should watch for a breakout above 5150, which could trigger further upside momentum. Support lies around 5080-5100. Palantir’s earnings after the bell could influence tech sentiment, as could the release of any unexpected fiscal policy announcements. The pain trade for the S&P 500 remains a sustained rally driven by dovish surprise from the Fed or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions.

  • Nasdaq 100 Faces Hormuz Risk as Rates Remain Sticky – Monday, 4 May

    Where we are: Nasdaq 100 futures are currently trading around 18,350, down about 0.4% on the session. This pullback comes after a solid week where the index notched fresh records. The overnight range has been relatively contained, but the bias is clearly lower as risk sentiment sours. We’re sitting below Friday’s New York close, suggesting further downside pressure at the open.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver is rising geopolitical tension. Increased tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are spiking oil prices and injecting broad risk-off sentiment, particularly hitting tech given their sensitivity to speculative bets and AI narratives. The domestic rates picture remains sticky, with the 10-year breakeven rising and real yields falling, providing a mixed backdrop — lower real rates should support risk but higher breakevens reflect upside inflation risks that keep the Fed hawkish. There is no significant domestic catalyst before the NY open.

    • CFTC data shows the Nasdaq 100 crowded short at the 0th percentile, raising squeeze potential if tensions ease.
    • The 10Y Breakeven Inflation rate rose 2bp yesterday to 2.48%, indicating growing inflation concerns despite falling nominal yields.
    • WTI Crude spiked 1.49% to $99.89, exacerbating fears of sustained inflationary pressure.

    NY session focus: Watch the headlines around the Hormuz Strait situation; any de-escalation could trigger a sharp relief rally given the crowded short positioning. Key levels to watch are 18,300 as initial support and 18,450 as resistance. Keep an eye on Palantir earnings after the bell; a positive surprise could provide a tailwind to the AI sector. The trade that’s working is shorting rallies, while the trade at risk is holding onto longs established last week. The pain trade for Nasdaq 100 would be a rapid de-escalation of Middle East tensions coupled with strong earnings from AI names, triggering a significant short squeeze.

  • Dow Faces Oil Shock Reality Check – Monday, 4 May

    Where we are: Dow futures are currently trading around 38,750, modestly lower after an overnight range of roughly 150 points. This level is below Friday’s New York close and suggests a cautious start to the week. Key support lies around 38,600, while initial resistance is seen near 38,850.

    What’s driving it: The dominant factor weighing on the Dow is the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices. The risk of a restrictive Federal Reserve further compounds concerns, following multiple hawkish dissents last week. While US 2Y yields have eased 4bp to 3.88%, the jump in the 10Y Breakeven Inflation to 2.48% underscores the inflationary pressures stemming from the energy shock. The VIX, despite falling to 16.89, may find a floor quickly if geopolitical headlines persist.

    • The conflicting reports surrounding the attack on a US Navy vessel near Iran are unsettling investors, particularly given the “Misplaced Euphoria” warning from some strategists about a recession amid the oil price shock.
    • Crude oil is nearing $100 per barrel, and the inflationary implications are likely to dominate sentiment.
    • Speculator positioning in Dow Jones is modestly short at -1,431 contracts, suggesting limited scope for a short squeeze to cushion any further downside, especially with rising oil-related uncertainty.

    NY session focus: Watch for further developments in the Middle East – any confirmation of escalating conflict will likely trigger further risk-off moves. The 08:30 ET data releases will be crucial in assessing the impact of higher energy costs on the US economy, but geopolitical headlines will likely dominate trading activity. Key levels to monitor are 38,600 on the downside and 38,850 on the upside. The trade that’s working is shorting rallies; the trade at risk is chasing the downside too aggressively, given the headline-driven nature of the market. The pain trade for the Dow is a swift resolution to the Middle East tensions coupled with reassuring inflation data.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 1 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX is elevated at 18.81, while US 10Y yields are up 6bp on the day, suggesting a grind higher driven by real-rate repricing.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: higher yields pressuring risk assets amid sticky inflation data
    • USD/JPY intervention risk: markets remain on high alert after suspected BOJ action yesterday
    • ISM Manufacturing: US data in focus to confirm or deny disinflation narrative

    The setup: With US 10Y yields at 4.42%, the market is testing the upper end of its recent range. The trade is to fade risk assets on rallies, especially tech, given the real-yield headwinds. The risk is a dovish surprise from ISM data, which could lead to a relief rally.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 53.1, prior 52.7)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 80.0, prior 78.3)

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Strong US yields, data dependent Fed
      • Cross: Risk aversion, hawkish repricing
      • Levels: Resistance at 119.00, support at 118.50
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): ECB dovish pivot, sovereign risk
      • Cross: DXY strength, rising US-DE 10Y spread, risk-off flows
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.1750, support at 1.1700
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE relatively hawkish, but growth concerns linger
      • Cross: DXY strength offsets UK yield support
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3650, support at 1.3580
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish, but cautious
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still dovish, intervention risk limits upside
      • Cross: US 10Y strength trumps intervention fears
      • Levels: Resistance at 157.00, support at 156.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC cautious, oil link provides limited support
      • Cross: DXY strength, widening US-CA 10Y yield differential
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3650, support at 1.3580
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA hold weighs, commodity prices mixed
      • Cross: DXY strength, China growth concerns
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.6550, support at 0.6500
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5950, support at 0.5900
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB easing supports USD/CHF
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven flows
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7850, support at 0.7750
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish
      • Domestic: ECB dovish vs BoE hawkish, BoJ dovish drives JPY weakness
      • Cross: Risk-off hurts EUR/GBP, risk supports JPY crosses
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8550-0.8600, EUR/JPY: 170.00-171.00, GBP/JPY: 192.00-193.00
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields undermine gold
      • Cross: DXY strength adds to downward pressure
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,620, support at $4,580
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand stable, Gold-Silver ratio favoring Gold
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance at $45, support at $44
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply concerns offset by demand worries
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: WTI: Resistance at $106, support at $104
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth uncertain, LME stocks rising
      • Cross: DXY strength, global growth slowdown
      • Levels: Resistance at $4.50, support at $4.40
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising yields pressure valuations
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global uncertainty
      • Levels: Futures level 5,290, cash support 5,250, resistance 5,320
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yield impact on valuations, earnings priced in
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX spike
      • Levels: Resistance at 18,100, support at 18,000
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Industrial and financial earnings mixed
      • Cross: Bond-yield sensitive, could lag
      • Levels: Resistance at 38,900, support at 38,700
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness cushions downside
      • Cross: Global risk-off, US negative lead
      • Levels: Resistance at 10,350, support at 10,300
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields up, EU growth concerns
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength
      • Levels: Resistance at 24,500, support at 24,300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY strength weighs, BOJ stance limits upside
      • Cross: US tech direction, risk sentiment
      • Levels: Resistance at 59,600, support at 59,300
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates high, ETF inflows slowing
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk-off sentiment, Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Resistance at $61,500, support at $60,000

    Positioning watch: USD, AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin are all crowded longs above the 80th percentile, indicating significant squeeze risk on any negative surprises. JPY and NZD remain crowded shorts, susceptible to a squeeze if data improves or the BOJ hints at tightening.

    The pain trade: A soft ISM print would trigger a relief rally in risk assets, squeezing crowded USD longs and benefiting JPY/NZD shorts.

  • Dollar Strength Primed for Manufacturing Data – Friday, 1 May

    Where we are: The Dollar Index is hovering around 118.73, little changed from yesterday’s close, within an overnight range of 118.65 and 118.80. The index remains underpinned by solid US yields, with the 2-year at 3.92% and the 10-year at 4.42%. Technically, the DXY is holding above its 50-day moving average, suggesting a bias for further gains, but faces stiff resistance at the 119.00 level.

    What’s driving it: Dollar strength is primarily driven by the market’s continued belief in a patient Fed, despite growing dissent within the committee as highlighted by CNBC reports of members disagreeing with hinting at future cuts. The Treasury yields remain firm, as investors digest recent GDP and inflation data, with the 10-year real yield climbing to 1.96%, providing additional support to the dollar and acting as a headwind for gold. The crowded long positioning in the dollar leaves it vulnerable to a squeeze on any dovish surprises.

    • The Fed’s data-dependent stance, reaffirmed at the last meeting, keeps the market focused on incoming economic data.
    • US 10-year real yields are rising, reaching 1.96%, bolstering the dollar’s appeal.
    • CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions are at the 94th percentile, highlighting the risk of a short squeeze if data disappoints.

    NY session focus: All eyes are on today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices data at 10:00 ET. A stronger-than-expected print, particularly on the prices component (forecast 80.0 vs. previous 78.3), would likely fuel further dollar strength, targeting the 119.00 level and potentially triggering a squeeze on existing USD shorts. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report would challenge the Fed’s patient hold narrative, pushing the DXY back towards 118.00. The trade that’s working is long USD vs. EUR, but the trade at risk is long USD vs. JPY given recent intervention risks. The pain trade is a significant dovish surprise from the data triggering a sharp dollar sell-off.