Category: UK

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 15 April

GBPUSD is experiencing upward momentum as the pound benefits from a weaker dollar influenced by uncertainty surrounding US trade policy with China. This dollar weakness is occurring despite expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, which would typically pressure the pound. However, caution remains as the impact of trade policies and currency fluctuations on UK inflation is unclear, adding volatility. Upcoming UK jobs and inflation data will be crucial in determining the pair’s future direction.

EURUSD is positioned for potential continued upside as the euro benefits from global trade uncertainty and wavering confidence in the U.S. dollar. Trade tensions, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policy, are fueling recession concerns and diminishing the appeal of U.S. assets. While the U.S. President has granted temporary tariff exclusions, the prospect of new levies on semiconductors and pending decisions on phone tariffs keep the market on edge. The upcoming European Central Bank policy meeting is crucial, with an expected rate cut and close scrutiny of ECB commentary on trade impacts and future interest rate strategies. Any dovish signals from the ECB could temper euro strength, but overall, the current environment favors further EURUSD gains unless the ECB significantly alters market expectations.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook. While the previous day saw gains spurred by tariff exemptions on electronics and the potential pause of auto tariffs, suggesting upward momentum, the future is less clear. Upcoming earnings reports from major companies across various sectors are anticipated to reveal the impact of existing tariffs, potentially introducing volatility and downward pressure if corporate guidance reflects increased uncertainty. Further weighing on the market is the newly launched US Commerce Department probe into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, adding to investor unease and potentially limiting upside potential. The performance of major firms may significantly dictate whether the Dow can sustain or build upon its recent gains.

FTSE 100 experienced an upward push primarily driven by positive market sentiment surrounding a temporary reprieve from US tariffs on technology goods. This, coupled with the commencement of earnings season, boosted investor confidence and led to a 2% increase. The tariff news particularly benefited risk-on sectors such as financials and commodity-related stocks. However, company-specific news reveals mixed impacts as Ashmore’s reduced assets under management contrasted sharply with Wood Group’s considerable share price surge following a takeover bid, potentially influencing overall market dynamics and investor strategies.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure due to ongoing economic uncertainties stemming from potential tariffs initiated by President Trump. The fluctuating exemptions for tech and auto industries, coupled with new investigations into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are fueling safe-haven demand for gold. Further bolstering its value is the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in response to these tariffs, as suggested by Governor Waller. Conflicting signals from Fed officials, with Bostic advocating a wait-and-see approach, are contributing to market uncertainty and pricing in significant rate easing by the end of the year, further supporting gold’s appeal.

Asset Summary – Monday, 14 April

GBPUSD is likely to experience volatility and potential downward pressure. The pound’s recent strength against the dollar, driven by dollar weakness stemming from trade war anxieties, could be fragile. While the pound has been resilient, the growing likelihood of substantial interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, now almost fully pricing in a cut as early as May, presents a significant headwind. The combination of global recession fears and aggressive monetary policy easing by the BoE could outweigh any benefit the pound receives from political efforts to insulate the UK from trade war fallout. Traders should be prepared for potential declines in the GBPUSD pair as the market digests these factors.

EURUSD is demonstrating upward pressure as the euro benefits from a weaker dollar amid escalating US-China trade tensions and resulting concerns about the global economy. Investors are moving away from the dollar, a traditional safe haven, providing further support for the euro. Political stability in Europe, specifically the coalition agreement in Germany and the anticipated chancellorship of Friedrich Merz, adds to the euro’s appeal. However, the expected ECB interest rate cut and potential for further easing this year, influenced by concerns over economic deterioration, could temper gains or introduce volatility.

DOW JONES is positioned for potential gains as positive sentiment builds around trade developments and anticipation for corporate earnings. The temporary exemptions on tariffs for key tech products, while not a complete removal of trade pressures due to the existing Fentanyl Tariffs, offers some relief. Coupled with a robust market rebound last week following the tariff delay announcement, and a calendar packed with major earnings reports from companies like Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson, investors may be optimistic, potentially driving the index higher. The substantial gains last week in other major indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, further supports a positive outlook for the Dow.

FTSE 100 has experienced a notable decline since the start of 2025. Tracking data reveals a decrease of 209 points, representing a 2.56% drop in its value. This contraction indicates a weakening performance of the leading UK stock market index, suggesting potential headwinds for companies listed within it and influencing trading strategies for investors utilizing CFDs linked to the index.

GOLD’s price is currently experiencing volatility driven by conflicting forces. The easing of trade tensions, specifically the temporary tariff exemption on certain electronic products, initially exerted downward pressure, causing a price decrease from recent record highs. However, looming threats of new duties on electronic goods and semiconductors are creating uncertainty that could bolster gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, characterized by tit-for-tat tariff increases, has previously fueled significant price gains. Furthermore, the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is being closely watched, as indications of potential rate cuts could further influence gold’s value.

Asset Summary – Friday, 11 April

GBPUSD is exhibiting upward momentum, driven by a weaker US dollar and a reassessment of UK monetary policy expectations. The dollar’s decline stems from uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, particularly conflicting signals regarding tariffs. Concurrently, expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have diminished, lending support to the pound. Furthermore, tentative signs of economic improvement in the UK, as indicated by a projected GDP increase, are contributing to a more positive outlook for the currency pair. This combination of factors suggests the potential for continued, albeit volatile, appreciation in the near term.

EURUSD experienced upward pressure due to a combination of factors. The EU’s tariff suspension on the US bolstered the euro as it eased trade tensions and allayed fears of economic downturn. Simultaneously, reduced US tariffs on some countries and increased tariffs on China injected uncertainty into the global market, indirectly favoring the euro. Furthermore, revised expectations for ECB rate cuts, indicating a less dovish stance than previously anticipated, provided additional support for the euro, leading to a higher valuation against the US dollar. Traders are now less certain about immediate rate cuts.

DOW JONES is facing downward pressure as U.S. stock futures are declining, reflecting a week of volatility driven by trade uncertainty. A significant drop in major indexes, including the Dow itself, highlights weakened investor confidence following a brief rally triggered by tariff pause news. Renewed trade war anxieties, evidenced by increased tariffs on Chinese imports, are contributing to the negative sentiment. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. consumer sentiment data and earnings reports from major financial institutions, which could further influence the Dow’s direction.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant surge, marking its largest gain since 2020, primarily driven by a shift in US trade policy. The suspension of new tariff increases instilled confidence in the global economy, positively influencing investor sentiment. The financial sector and commodity-related stocks benefitted the most from this renewed optimism, with Anglo American seeing a notable rise due to investor anticipation surrounding the sale of its steelmaking coal unit. However, the positive trend was tempered by concerns surrounding the UK grocery market, where increased competition is expected to put pressure on profits for companies like Tesco, leading to a decline in their share value.

GOLD is experiencing a significant upward trend, achieving record highs driven by several factors. The weakening US dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for investors holding other currencies, boosting demand. Heightened trade tensions between the US and China are creating uncertainty and anxiety in the market, pushing investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. The US imposing higher tariffs on Chinese goods intensifies these concerns. Furthermore, unexpected declines in US consumer prices have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts, potentially making gold more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. However, these rate cut expectations are complicated by the inflationary pressures that could arise from increased tariffs on Chinese goods. Overall, the current economic and geopolitical climate seems to favor continued strength in the gold market, positioning it for potentially its best weekly performance in several months.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 10 April

GBPUSD is exhibiting upward momentum, primarily driven by a weakened US dollar. Heightened trade tensions between the US and China, coupled with retaliatory tariff announcements from both nations, are contributing to this dollar depreciation. Furthermore, the European Union’s approval of tariffs on US goods adds to the negative sentiment surrounding the US currency. In the UK, concerns expressed by a Bank of England Deputy Governor regarding the potential impact of these tariffs on UK growth are influencing market expectations for future interest rate cuts. The increasing probability of aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England, including a potential 50 basis point cut in May and a series of cuts throughout the year, is also factoring into the dynamics affecting the pair.

EURUSD is gaining value as trade tensions between the US and China escalate, leading investors to seek alternatives to the US dollar. The increase in tariffs imposed by both nations is diminishing the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, simultaneously, the Euro is strengthened by political stability in Europe, specifically the coalition agreement in Germany, which paves the way for new leadership. Furthermore, the anticipated interest rate cut by the European Central Bank this month appears to be already priced in, minimizing any potential negative impact on the Euro. These combined factors are pushing the EURUSD towards its highest level in several months.

DOW JONES is positioned for continued gains as positive market sentiment follows a substantial rally driven by President Trump’s tariff pause announcement. The index experienced a significant surge, mirroring gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. This upward trend is likely to be sustained, although the ongoing trade tensions with China and the potential for tariffs on the EU present a degree of uncertainty. The strong performance of leading technology companies suggests a broad-based recovery, potentially benefiting the Dow Jones through its constituents that participate in the tech sector.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating global trade tensions. Retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and the European Union on US goods triggered market uncertainty, negatively impacting major UK stocks. Pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca and GSK faced substantial losses following indications of potential tariffs targeting the sector. Declining crude prices further pressured oil giants Shell and BP, contributing to the overall downturn. Despite a positive trading update from JD Sports, the lack of commentary on potential US tariff risks raises concerns given their significant presence in the American market.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure as escalating trade tensions between the US and China drive investors toward safe-haven assets. The tit-for-tat tariff increases, despite some broader de-escalation efforts, are creating economic uncertainty, bolstering gold’s appeal. Concerns within the Federal Reserve regarding rising inflation and slower growth, as indicated by recent FOMC minutes, further support the bullish outlook. The market is keenly awaiting upcoming US CPI and PPI data to gauge the Fed’s future interest rate policy. Additionally, substantial inflows into gold-backed ETFs in the first quarter of the year demonstrate strong investor confidence in the precious metal.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 9 April

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure as the pound weakens against the dollar. Concerns about a potential global recession, fueled by trade tensions between the US and China, are driving investors away from assets perceived as riskier, like the British pound. This, coupled with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, significantly lowers the attractiveness of holding GBP. The market’s anticipation of aggressive monetary easing by the BoE, including a high probability of a rate cut in May, further weakens the pound, leading to a decline in the GBPUSD exchange rate.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as escalating global trade tensions and worries about slower global growth weigh on riskier currencies. The euro’s stability around $1.09 is fragile, contingent on the EU’s response to U.S. tariffs. The failure of the EU’s zero-for-zero tariff proposal and the potential implementation of counter-tariffs against U.S. goods create uncertainty. Furthermore, China’s firm stance against U.S. trade threats adds to the overall risk-off sentiment, likely hindering any significant upward movement for the currency pair in the near term. Traders should closely monitor trade negotiations and policy announcements from both the EU and the US as key drivers for future EURUSD direction.

DOW JONES faces downward pressure as newly implemented US tariffs on Chinese goods spark fears of a full-blown trade war. The market’s negative reaction, including Tuesday’s decline, suggests that investor confidence is shaken by the escalating conflict. Initial optimism about tariff negotiations has faded following confirmation of the tariffs, signaling further potential losses. The lack of progress despite reported interest from numerous countries underscores the uncertainty surrounding international trade relations, likely fueling further volatility. Investors’ focus will now shift to the Federal Reserve’s minutes for any indications regarding future interest rate policy, which could offer some stability or further exacerbate market concerns.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant rebound, adding 2.7% to reach a closing value of 7,910.5, effectively halting a recent period of declines. This upward movement suggests a potential recovery following substantial losses prompted by anxieties surrounding international trade policies, which had previously erased a considerable amount of market capitalization. The gains were particularly pronounced in the aerospace and defense sectors, with Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems leading the advance, indicating renewed investor confidence in these specific industries. Broader gains across various other companies imply a wider market recovery after the recent downturn.

GOLD is experiencing upward pressure, driven primarily by its role as a safe-haven asset in the face of escalating global economic uncertainty. The imposition of tariffs by the United States, specifically the significant duties on Chinese goods and the potential for further tariffs on pharmaceuticals, is heightening concerns about a global recession and inflationary pressures. This uncertainty is encouraging investors to seek refuge in gold. Furthermore, substantial inflows into gold-backed ETFs indicate strong investor confidence in the metal. Traders are also closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting minutes for clues regarding potential future interest rate adjustments, which could further influence gold’s value.