Category: UK

Asset Summary – Friday, 3 October

GBPUSD is showing signs of stability around the $1.35 mark after a period of gains, although its future direction is uncertain. The upcoming UK budget, with potential tax increases to meet fiscal targets, presents a possible headwind for the pound. However, support may arise from the Bank of England’s monetary policy, with expectations of maintaining current interest rates for an extended period due to persistent inflationary pressures. The anticipated peak in CPI inflation, followed by a gradual decline, suggests a potential strengthening of the pound in the medium term, but concerns remain regarding food and administered price inflation, which could limit its upside.

EURUSD is exhibiting positive momentum. Recent trading shows the euro gaining against the dollar, evidenced by a 0.08% increase to 1.1725 in the latest session. Looking back, this upward trend is further supported by a 0.59% appreciation over the past month. Zooming out, the EURUSD has demonstrated a notable strengthening over the longer term, with a substantial 6.84% rise in value over the past year, suggesting a sustained period of euro outperformance against the US dollar.

DOW JONES is likely to experience continued upward pressure, albeit potentially modest, as US stock futures indicate a positive start following Wall Street’s recent record highs. The technology sector’s strong performance, fueled by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and significant gains in companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, is a key driver. OpenAI’s substantial valuation and partnerships with South Korean chipmakers further boost investor confidence. However, political uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown and the delayed release of key economic data, such as the nonfarm payrolls, could introduce some volatility and temper gains.

FTSE 100 experienced mixed trading signals. A decline in Experian’s value, triggered by concerns about potential earnings reduction due to Fair Isaac’s new program, exerted downward pressure. However, this was partially counteracted by positive momentum from Tesco, driven by increased sales and raised profit forecasts, and 3i Group, boosted by speculation surrounding a potential lucrative sale of Evernex. These countervailing forces contributed to a relatively stable day for the index, preventing a significant drop despite the negative impact from Experian.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, nearing a seventh straight week of gains, fueled by its attractiveness as a safe investment amidst economic uncertainties. The U.S. government shutdown and potential delays in key economic data are contributing to this demand. While recent private sector data suggests a cooling labor market, reinforcing expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts that typically benefit gold, caution from within the Fed regarding rate reductions introduced some downward pressure. Overall, the interplay of safe-haven buying and dovish monetary policy expectations appears to be the dominant influence on gold’s current trading pattern.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 2 October

GBPUSD is exhibiting upward pressure, primarily driven by a weakening US dollar amid concerns surrounding a potential US government shutdown. The Bank of England’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, coupled with market expectations of no rate cuts until 2026, further supports the pound’s value. However, the mixed signals from BoE officials regarding inflation and the appropriate level of interest rates introduce some uncertainty. Investors are also monitoring potential tax policy changes from Chancellor Reeves, as these could impact the UK’s fiscal outlook and ultimately affect the pound. This combination of factors suggests a complex trading environment where dollar weakness and BoE policy are counterbalanced by domestic fiscal concerns and divergent opinions among policymakers.

EURUSD is likely to experience upward pressure. Eurozone inflation data exceeding expectations strengthens the euro, particularly against a backdrop of a weakening US dollar due to disappointing employment figures and a government shutdown. The increased inflation makes it less likely the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in the near term, as suggested by recent statements from ECB officials. This hawkish sentiment regarding interest rates, combined with a weaker dollar, supports a potential rise in the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES saw a slight gain in the previous session and futures trading indicates a continuation of this stability. The market appears resilient, seemingly unaffected by both the government shutdown and weaker-than-expected private payroll data. Positive sentiment around pharmaceutical stocks, spurred by policy developments, might further contribute to upward pressure, although the absence of the September nonfarm payrolls report due to the shutdown introduces an element of uncertainty.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant surge, reaching a new high, primarily fueled by a substantial rally in pharmaceutical stocks. The agreement between Pfizer and the Trump administration regarding drug pricing provided a boost to the sector, sparking optimism for other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, positive performance from JD Sports, influenced by Nike’s better-than-expected sales figures, contributed to the index’s gains. Steady UK house prices, indicating a potential strengthening in the market, further supported the positive sentiment. In the US, economic factors such as a weak ADP report and the ongoing government shutdown are influencing investor expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy.

GOLD is exhibiting resilience near record highs, buoyed by anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions and its traditional role as a safe store of value. A weaker-than-expected report on private-sector employment supports the view that the Federal Reserve might maintain or even accelerate its interest rate cuts, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the delayed nonfarm payrolls report and the ongoing government shutdown are driving investors toward gold as a hedge against potential economic instability. A Supreme Court ruling potentially diminishing the perception of political influence on the Fed could provide some offset to the factors currently supporting higher gold prices.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 1 October

GBPUSD is currently demonstrating positive momentum, having appreciated to a rate of 1.3460. This reflects a daily gain of 0.13%, indicating a slight upward trend in the short term. Looking at a broader perspective, the Pound has exhibited strengthening over the past month and year, with gains of 0.59% and 1.49% respectively. This suggests a potentially bullish outlook for the currency pair, as the British Pound seems to be holding its value and gaining ground against the US Dollar over both the short and long term.

EURUSD is poised to potentially increase in value. Rising inflation figures across major Eurozone economies are bolstering the euro as they suggest the European Central Bank (ECB) is less likely to cut interest rates in the near term. Stronger inflation in Germany, France, and Spain, coupled with consistent inflation in Italy, is expected to drive Eurozone inflation to a five-month high. This inflationary pressure, while partly attributed to factors the ECB may disregard, could still prompt them to hold steady on current interest rates. Simultaneously, a weakening dollar, spurred by anxieties regarding a potential US government shutdown, further supports the euro’s upward trajectory against the dollar.

DOW JONES is facing potential headwinds as US stock futures indicate a slight dip, influenced by anxieties surrounding a possible government shutdown. The political impasse in Congress introduces uncertainty, potentially delaying important economic data releases like the nonfarm payrolls report, which could impact Federal Reserve policy decisions. While the Dow, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, demonstrated positive performance in September and the third quarter, the looming shutdown and its consequences could dampen investor enthusiasm. Positive corporate news, such as Nike’s strong earnings, might offer some support, but the overall sentiment suggests a cautious approach for the Dow in the short term.

FTSE 100 is displaying positive momentum, evidenced by recent gains fueled by a strong performance in mining stocks. This upward trend coincides with encouraging Q2 GDP figures and upward revisions to annual growth, signaling a potentially strengthening UK economy. However, rising shop price inflation and potential cost pressures from upcoming packaging taxes present challenges. Divergent performance among major constituents, with gains in HSBC, AstraZeneca, Unilever and Relx contrasting with declines in Shell and BP due to fluctuating crude prices, suggests a market navigating mixed signals. The potential for higher OPEC+ output and geopolitical developments could further influence trading activity.

GOLD is experiencing upward pressure, propelled by the increased appeal of safe-haven assets amidst fears of a potential US government shutdown. The failure of the Senate to approve funding extensions, coupled with anticipated workforce reductions, is fueling uncertainty. The duration of any shutdown is a key concern, as delays in economic data releases like the nonfarm payrolls report could complicate the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Simultaneously, signs of a cooling US labor market, such as slightly increased job openings but slower hiring, are reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, further bolstering the price of gold as investors seek alternative stores of value. Traders are currently anticipating a high likelihood of rate reductions, contributing to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 30 September

GBPUSD experienced a boost after Chancellor Reeves’ speech, yet the market’s reaction remains cautious until the Budget provides specific policy details. The pound’s rise to $1.343 suggests initial optimism regarding Labour’s commitment to fiscal responsibility and regional investment. However, broader economic concerns, including a projected slowdown in growth and persistent inflation significantly above the Bank of England’s target, could limit further gains. Furthermore, the external pressure of a potential U.S. government shutdown adds volatility, weighing down the dollar and potentially creating temporary upward pressure on the GBPUSD, even though the overall economic outlook for the UK may constrain its strength.

EURUSD faces a complex and uncertain outlook. While the anticipation of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts could weaken the dollar and potentially bolster the euro, strong US economic data may temper these expectations. In Europe, the potential end of the ECB’s easing policy could strengthen the euro, however, mixed economic signals and a deepening manufacturing slump may limit this effect. The introduction of new trade tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their impact on both the European and US economies adds further volatility, potentially leading to unpredictable movements in the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES is currently exhibiting a slightly positive trend, with futures indicating little change following a strong start to the week. The index experienced a gain of 0.15% on Monday and is on track to finish September with a 1.7% increase. While concerns regarding AI-related investments and potential economic challenges have created some pressure, optimism remains regarding the long-term earnings potential of the tech sector, which appears to be contributing positively to the Dow’s performance. The looming possibility of a government shutdown adds a layer of uncertainty that could potentially impact the index in the short term.

FTSE 100 experienced an overall positive trading day despite initial downward pressure, ultimately closing with gains. The performance was largely driven by strong showings from mining companies, boosted by rising copper prices, and pharmaceutical giants. Leadership changes and promising drug development pipelines at GSK, coupled with AstraZeneca’s strategic US listing plans, contributed to investor confidence in the pharma sector. Conversely, energy stocks faced headwinds due to declining oil prices, and several other prominent companies experienced declines. The reaffirmation of fiscal policy and infrastructure commitments by the Chancellor provided a backdrop of economic stability.

GOLD is experiencing a surge in value, driven by multiple factors that are increasing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. The looming possibility of a US government shutdown, stemming from failed funding negotiations, is creating uncertainty and prompting investors to seek stability in gold. This situation is compounded by the impending implementation of new US tariffs, which further fuels market anxieties. Additionally, expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, supported by recent economic data, are diminishing the attractiveness of interest-bearing investments and boosting demand for gold. These converging factors are contributing to significant gains in gold prices, making it a potentially lucrative asset for traders in the current climate.

Asset Summary – Monday, 29 September

GBPUSD faces downward pressure due to a combination of factors. The Bank of England’s uncertain policy stance, with differing views on interest rate cuts among policymakers, creates volatility. Persistently high UK inflation adds to the economic headwinds. Furthermore, political proposals involving significant borrowing and potential nationalization contribute to market unease, specifically impacting gilt yields. The pound’s weakness is exacerbated by a strengthening US dollar, driven by positive US economic data that reduces expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This confluence of domestic and international factors suggests a challenging outlook for the currency pair.

EURUSD faces a complex and uncertain outlook. The euro’s recent dip below $1.17 reflects the tug-of-war between diverging monetary policies and evolving trade dynamics. While the expectation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could weigh on the dollar, the US economy’s apparent strength might counter this pressure. Conversely, the anticipated end of the European Central Bank’s easing cycle may offer some support to the euro, although the mixed economic signals from Europe, particularly the manufacturing sector’s struggles, create headwinds. Furthermore, escalating trade tensions, including potential tariffs on both pharmaceutical products and steel imports, introduce a significant element of volatility and could impact the relative attractiveness of both currencies. These crosscurrents suggest a period of choppy trading for the pair as markets attempt to price in these competing factors.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook as it begins the week with flat futures after a slight decline in the previous week. While the broader market experienced a cooling of the AI rally and concerns regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations due to robust economic data, the Dow has demonstrated resilience. Investors are awaiting crucial employment data later in the week which could sway sentiment. Despite recent headwinds, the Dow is currently positioned to conclude September with a gain.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, having reached 9285 points on September 26, 2025, marking a 0.77% increase from the prior trading day. Recent performance indicates steady growth, with a 0.32% rise over the last month. Furthermore, the index exhibits substantial gains year-over-year, showing an 11.59% appreciation compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, reflecting overall positive market sentiment within the UK’s leading companies.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, reaching record highs due to several interconnected factors. A weakening US dollar makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve further supports gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Economic data releases, particularly inflation figures, are reinforcing expectations of these rate cuts. However, uncertainty remains, with investors closely watching upcoming economic indicators to gauge the overall health of the US economy. The possibility of a US government shutdown and newly announced tariffs are adding to economic anxieties, potentially driving investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.