Category: UK

Asset Summary – Friday, 19 September

GBPUSD faces potential downward pressure as the Bank of England maintains a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, despite some dovish dissent within the committee. While the UK economy shows some pockets of strength, the Bank’s commitment to gradualism and only modestly adjusted inflation forecasts limit the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts in the near term. Conversely, the US Federal Reserve has already begun its easing cycle and signaled further cuts to come, although downplaying the onset of rapid easing. This disparity in monetary policy paths between the UK and the US suggests a strengthening US dollar relative to the British pound, which could lead to a depreciation in the GBPUSD exchange rate.

EURUSD faces a mixed outlook. While the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and indication of further easing initially weakened the dollar, Chair Powell’s cautious tone tempered expectations of aggressive future cuts, lending some support to the dollar. In the Eurozone, the ECB’s pause in rate cuts and cautious messaging from policymakers, coupled with slightly lower than estimated inflation, suggests a less dovish stance than the Fed. This divergence in monetary policy could provide some support for the euro against the dollar, although lingering economic risks and cautionary statements from ECB members might limit significant euro appreciation.

DOW JONES is poised for potential gains, building on momentum from the previous session’s record high close. This positive outlook is fueled by the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut and projections for further reductions this year, despite a more conservative outlook for 2026. Positive performances in key S&P sectors like technology, industrials, and communication services are likely to contribute to the Dow’s upward trajectory. Furthermore, individual stock gains within the market, such as Intel’s surge driven by Nvidia’s investment, alongside strong showings from Palantir, Coinbase, and CrowdStrike, may further bolster investor confidence and contribute to the Dow’s overall performance. With no major economic data or earnings reports due on Friday, the market may experience a period of relative calm, allowing the positive sentiment from the prior day to potentially carry over.

FTSE 100 experienced a slight increase as investors digested recent actions by central banks. The Bank of England’s decision to maintain interest rates, coupled with adjustments to its bond sales program, provided a degree of stability. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut, while anticipated, tempered enthusiasm with a cautious outlook on future easing, creating some uncertainty. A strengthening dollar offered support to the large multinational companies listed on the index. However, gains were limited by the negative performance of retailer Next, whose conservative forecast for the second half of the year dampened investor sentiment, despite positive first-half results and increased dividend payouts.

GOLD’s recent performance reflects a market balancing anticipation of future Federal Reserve policy and current economic realities. While a slight increase occurred on Friday, the metal’s inability to fully recover from a prior decline suggests investors are carefully evaluating the Fed’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts. The prospect of sustained inflation potentially tempering the pace of easing, as indicated by policymakers, is likely contributing to some hesitancy. Despite this, the year-to-date gains, driven by expectations of looser monetary policy, geopolitical instability, and robust central bank purchases, demonstrate underlying strength. The significant increase in Swiss gold exports to China further underscores strong demand factors influencing gold’s market value.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 18 September

GBPUSD is poised for potential upside as the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its current interest rate and slow its bond unwinding program. This expectation, coupled with UK inflation data matching forecasts and a stable labor market, suggests the BoE is unlikely to enact rate cuts in the near term. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, although communicated as a preemptive measure, could weigh on the dollar. The contrast between a potentially dovish Fed and a steady BoE could favor the pound, potentially pushing the GBPUSD higher.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook shaped by diverging monetary policy signals. While the Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts in the US, with hints of further easing, the European Central Bank appears to be pausing its rate-cutting cycle, emphasizing caution due to persistent economic risks. This difference in approach, alongside the firming dollar following the Fed’s announcement, suggests potential headwinds for the EURUSD. Moreover, the Euro Area’s slightly lower than expected inflation reading could further weigh on the euro, as it gives the ECB less incentive to raise interest rates, making the dollar comparatively more attractive.

DOW JONES experienced gains on Wednesday, rising 0.57%, and futures suggest continued upward momentum. This positive outlook is tempered by the Federal Reserve’s indication of a potentially slower pace of interest rate cuts than previously anticipated by the market. While a 25 basis point cut was implemented, projections for future cuts have been scaled back, creating uncertainty. The Dow’s performance may also be influenced by sector rotations, as financials, consumer staples, and materials showed strength, while technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors underperformed. Upcoming economic data, particularly inflation and labor market figures, will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced a slight recovery, interrupting a recent decline, primarily driven by positive company-specific news. Strong food sales data boosted Marks & Spencer, while an analyst upgrade and strategic investments fueled gains for Centrica. Better-than-expected profits lifted Barratt Redrow, though caution regarding potential budget impacts was noted. Counteracting these positives, a failed drug trial weighed on AstraZeneca. The broader economic picture remained largely unchanged, with inflation and jobs data aligning with expectations, leaving the Bank of England’s expected monetary policy response stable. Market participants are now focusing on the anticipated actions of the Federal Reserve.

GOLD is currently trading around $3,650 per ounce, maintaining losses after the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision and subsequent strengthening of the US dollar. While the rate cut was anticipated and hints at possible future reductions, the Fed Chair’s cautious stance and emphasis on a meeting-by-meeting evaluation of future rate adjustments create uncertainty, potentially limiting upward momentum for gold. The precious metal’s impressive 39% year-to-date gain, driven by easing expectations, geopolitical instability, and central bank demand, may face headwinds. Furthermore, limited supplies of used gold in India, as investors hoard expecting further price appreciation, suggests continued underlying support, even as the market digests the implications of the Fed’s latest policy announcement.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 17 September

GBPUSD is demonstrating upward momentum as it reaches levels not seen since early July, primarily driven by expectations surrounding upcoming central bank decisions and key UK economic data releases. The anticipation that the Bank of England will maintain current interest rates while potentially moderating its bond-reduction program is supporting the pound. Simultaneously, the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts, potentially multiple times, is weakening the dollar. Upcoming UK inflation and retail sales figures will be closely watched to assess the health of the British economy, and while recent jobs data indicates a cooling labor market, it hasn’t significantly altered market expectations for future BoE policy. This divergence in anticipated monetary policy between the UK and the US is contributing to the pound’s relative strength against the dollar.

EURUSD is experiencing upward pressure, driven by positive economic sentiment within the Eurozone and Germany. This positive sentiment is coupled with a weakening US dollar, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates. The expectation of Fed rate cuts contrasts with the European Central Bank’s cautious approach to inflation and its recent decision to hold interest rates steady. The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Europe, combined with stronger Eurozone economic data, suggests further potential for the euro to appreciate against the dollar.

DOW JONES is positioned for potential movement as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The expected rate cut of 25 basis points could provide a boost, but the market’s reaction will largely depend on the Fed’s future economic outlook. Recent declines in the Dow, along with losses in major tech stocks, suggest some underlying caution. However, positive developments in US-China trade relations and the TikTok situation could provide a counteracting lift to the index. Therefore, the Dow’s direction hinges on balancing these factors and interpreting the Fed’s signals.

FTSE 100 experienced a decrease as corporate news and UK economic data influenced investor sentiment. Negative assessments from analysts impacted specific companies within the index, like EasyJet and Haleon, contributing to the overall decline. Mixed reactions to company-specific announcements, such as Rolls-Royce’s positive business development and Unilever’s CFO appointment, had a limited offsetting effect. While wage growth met expectations, the persistent unemployment rate and slight payroll reduction provided little support, collectively leading to a negative trading day for the index.

GOLD experienced a slight pullback after recently hitting record highs, suggesting some investors are securing profits. However, the underlying trend for gold remains positive, fueled by expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Weaker employment figures support this anticipation, potentially leading to further gains for gold. Despite some positive economic data indicating continued growth, the overall sentiment favors gold due to central bank demand, its status as a safe haven, and a declining US dollar. Future price movements will likely depend on the details of the Fed’s policy announcement, including their projected interest rate path and commentary from the Chair.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 16 September

GBPUSD is demonstrating potential for further upside as the pound benefits from expectations that the Bank of England will likely hold rates steady, with a slower pace of quantitative tightening. Crucially, the anticipation of UK inflation data near recent highs and upcoming employment and retail sales figures add to the bullish sentiment. Conversely, the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, coupled with market forecasts for additional cuts, may weaken the dollar, further supporting the GBPUSD pair. The contrast in monetary policy outlooks between the BoE and the Fed creates a supportive environment for the pound relative to the dollar.

EURUSD faces a mixed outlook. France’s credit downgrade could exert downward pressure on the euro as it reflects concerns about the Eurozone’s economic stability. However, the expected Federal Reserve rate cut would likely weaken the dollar, potentially offsetting the euro’s weakness. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan’s anticipated inaction is unlikely to significantly impact the pair, while the ECB’s indication that its rate-cutting cycle is likely over could provide some support to the euro. The overall direction of EURUSD will likely depend on the magnitude of the Fed’s rate cut and any surprises from the central bank meetings, particularly regarding future policy guidance.

DOW JONES experienced a slight increase on Monday, contributing to a generally positive market sentiment where other major indexes reached record highs. Although the Dow’s gains were modest compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the positive movement suggests underlying strength, potentially influenced by optimistic trade talk progress between the US and China. Anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates and subsequent commentary by the Fed Chair will likely be a key factor in shaping the Dow’s performance in the near term.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline attributed to significant losses in pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, particularly AstraZeneca’s investment pause and GlaxoSmithKline’s downturn. BT’s stock also dipped following board member appointments. Conversely, Sainsbury’s saw a substantial increase after abandoning Argos sale negotiations. The index’s direction will likely be influenced by upcoming central bank meetings and the release of UK inflation data, with predictions of a high year-on-year rate. These economic events and corporate developments create a mixed outlook for the FTSE 100’s future performance.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, driven primarily by a weakening US dollar. The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to further support gold prices, as lower rates typically make the dollar less attractive and gold more appealing as an investment. The market’s expectation of continued rate cuts into the following year reinforces this positive outlook. Traders will be closely monitoring the Fed’s economic projections and statements for clues about the future trajectory of monetary policy, as well as economic data releases to gauge the strength of the US economy, all of which can influence gold’s value. The ongoing political and legal challenges facing the Federal Reserve could also contribute to market uncertainty, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe haven asset.

Asset Summary – Monday, 15 September

GBPUSD faces downward pressure given recent economic data indicating a sluggish start to the third quarter for the UK economy. Stagnant GDP and a surprise drop in industrial production raise concerns about the impact of tax increases and tariffs on economic activity. Further fiscal tightening expected in November adds to the negative sentiment. While the Bank of England is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the immediate term, the possibility of a rate cut at the November meeting, coupled with looming budget announcements, contributes to uncertainty surrounding the pound, potentially weakening it against the US dollar.

EURUSD experienced a slight decline in value on September 15, 2025, closing at 1.1722, which represents a decrease of 0.09% compared to the prior trading day. Examining a broader timeframe reveals a more positive trend, as the currency pair has appreciated by 0.46% over the preceding month. Furthermore, when considering a longer-term perspective, the EURUSD has exhibited substantial gains, increasing by 5.33% throughout the past year, suggesting an overall upward trend despite the recent minor dip.

DOW JONES is positioned to potentially maintain or slightly increase its value, influenced by expectations surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is already largely priced in, suggesting limited immediate impact. However, any surprise move, particularly a larger cut, could trigger a more significant rally. Stephen Miran’s potential appointment to the Fed could also introduce uncertainty. Given the Dow’s recent gains and hitting record highs last week, combined with ongoing AI optimism despite broader economic concerns, the index seems to have a positive but cautious outlook in the short term.

FTSE 100 experienced a slight dip in value, closing at 9283 points with a 0.15% decrease in a recent trading session. However, the broader trend suggests positive performance as the index has shown gains over the past month and significantly increased compared to its value a year prior. Based on contract for difference trading activity which mirrors this benchmark, this overall upward trajectory indicates growing investor confidence and potential for continued appreciation, though short-term fluctuations should be expected.

GOLD’s price is being heavily influenced by anticipation surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The expectation of a potential interest rate cut is supporting higher gold prices, as lower rates typically weaken the dollar and make gold more attractive. Key economic data releases regarding retail sales and industrial production will further shape expectations for future rate cuts and, consequently, gold’s direction. Political uncertainty, stemming from the Trump administration’s actions towards the Federal Reserve and the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, adds another layer of complexity, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.