Category: Analysis

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 8 April

GBPUSD experienced a decline as the British pound weakened significantly against the dollar. The drop was primarily fueled by growing risk aversion in the market due to concerns about the potential for a global recession stemming from US trade policies. China’s retaliatory tariffs exacerbated these fears. Consequently, investors are increasingly anticipating interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with markets now pricing in substantial reductions to the benchmark rate. The increased probability of a near-term rate cut further contributes to the downward pressure on the pound, suggesting continued weakness in the GBPUSD exchange rate.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook amidst escalating trade tensions and anticipated monetary policy adjustments. The dollar’s weakness is supporting the euro, keeping the currency pair near recent highs. However, the potential for a full-blown trade war, particularly with increased tariffs between the U.S. and both China and the EU, creates uncertainty. Macron’s call to suspend U.S. investments and the EU’s potential retaliatory measures further exacerbate the situation. Crucially, markets are increasingly pricing in ECB rate cuts, which could weigh on the euro. The expectation of lower interest rates in the Eurozone, with a high probability of a cut in April and further easing anticipated throughout the year, presents a downward pressure on the euro relative to the dollar, potentially offsetting the current support from dollar weakness.

DOW JONES faces continued pressure amid high market volatility and tariff anxieties. Recent trading saw the Dow decline, reflecting sensitivity to trade uncertainties despite initial optimism fueled by tariff pause rumors, which were later refuted. This suggests the index’s performance is heavily influenced by trade policy developments. While technology stocks showed resilience, boosting the Nasdaq, the Dow’s broader composition makes it more susceptible to negative sentiment surrounding tariffs, and investors are likely to remain cautious until further clarity emerges, particularly with upcoming inflation data potentially shaping monetary policy decisions.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant decline, falling to a yearly low as market sentiment was negatively impacted by escalating trade tensions between the US and other nations, particularly China, stemming from tariff escalations. The broad selloff saw substantial losses across various sectors, with Melrose Industries, RELX, Sage Group and Rentokil Initial being particularly affected. The limited gains from companies such as Fresnillo, Entain, Natwest Group, and Taylor Wimpey were insufficient to offset the widespread downturn, indicating a bearish outlook driven by macroeconomic uncertainties.

GOLD is currently experiencing upward price pressure fueled by anxieties surrounding a potential global economic slowdown triggered by escalating trade disputes. President Trump’s threat of increased tariffs on Chinese goods and the EU’s proposed counter-tariffs against the U.S. are key drivers of this safe-haven demand. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, along with upcoming inflation and producer price data, will be closely scrutinized for clues regarding future monetary policy, which could further influence gold’s trajectory. Despite recent dips, gold has demonstrated substantial gains this year, indicating underlying strength in the market.

Asset Summary – Monday, 7 April

GBPUSD experienced a significant rise, reaching a six-month high of $1.3, primarily driven by a weakened US dollar. This dollar weakness stems from market anxieties surrounding newly announced US tariffs, including a 10% levy on UK imports. Investor concerns about the global economic impact of these tariffs have triggered a flight to safety, benefiting the pound. Furthermore, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), as reflected in market pricing, are adding upward pressure on the GBPUSD, with markets now anticipating 62bps worth of cuts. The UK Prime Minister’s intention to act in Britain’s interest is likely a contributing factor to investor confidence in the pound.

EURUSD faces potential volatility and downward pressure. The weakening dollar initially supported the euro, but escalating trade war tensions introduce significant uncertainty. China’s retaliatory tariffs and potential EU countermeasures against US tariffs weigh on global trade, pushing the ECB towards a likely rate cut. Increased expectations for a lower ECB deposit rate by the end of the year signal a weakening Eurozone economy, which could diminish the euro’s appeal and lead to a decline in the EURUSD exchange rate, despite its current position near recent highs.

DOW JONES is facing significant downward pressure, suggested by the sharp decline in Dow futures. The aggressive tariff policies pursued by the White House, combined with retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the EU, are fueling market uncertainty and prompting a selloff. The substantial losses already incurred by the Dow last week, coupled with the Trump administration’s steadfast stance on tariffs despite market reactions, indicate further potential for instability and decline in the Dow’s value.

FTSE 100 has experienced a decline in value since the start of 2025. Trading activity, as indicated by a contract for difference (CFD) that mirrors the index’s performance, reveals a decrease of 118 points, which translates to a 1.44% reduction in the index’s overall value. This suggests a negative trend in the performance of the leading companies listed on the UK stock market.

GOLD is experiencing downward pressure as investors sell off holdings to cover losses in other markets, reacting to a broader financial market downturn. Heightened trade war anxieties, driven by newly implemented and anticipated tariffs, are fueling recession fears, prompting liquidation of gold positions. Federal Reserve concerns about the inflationary and growth-dampening effects of these tariffs further contribute to the negative sentiment surrounding gold, suggesting a challenging near-term outlook for its price.

Asset Summary – Friday, 4 April

GBPUSD experienced a significant upward movement, reaching a six-month high as the US dollar weakened considerably. This surge was largely driven by market participants reacting to newly announced US tariffs, including a 10% tariff on UK imports, which has fostered risk aversion and a flight to safe-haven assets. The UK’s measured response, emphasizing a focus on British interests, appears to be contributing to the pound’s relative strength. Furthermore, the market’s increased expectation of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England suggests investors anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy to mitigate the economic impact of the tariffs, influencing the dynamics of the currency pair.

EURUSD is experiencing upward pressure driven by a weaker dollar. New US tariffs, particularly those targeting the European Union, are creating economic uncertainty and prompting expectations of retaliatory measures. This situation is leading traders to anticipate a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB), including potential interest rate cuts. The combination of dollar weakness and increased expectations for ECB easing is contributing to the Euro’s rise against the dollar.

DOW JONES faces significant downward pressure following President Trump’s announcement of widespread tariffs, which triggered a substantial selloff in the stock market. The Dow’s sharp decline on Thursday reflects investor anxiety about potential global retaliation, threatening trade and economic expansion. While there are signs that the President may be open to negotiations, the overall market sentiment remains fragile, particularly as tech stocks, which heavily influence the Dow, experienced sharp losses. Investors will closely watch the upcoming jobs report for indications about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, but the immediate outlook suggests continued volatility for the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant downturn, dropping to a level not seen since mid-January as it mirrored a widespread global market decline. Investor confidence took a hit following the announcement of tariffs by the US president on various countries, including the UK, which is expected to impact financial institutions and retailers negatively. Standard Chartered PLC faced considerable losses amid worries about the potential effects of these tariffs on economic expansion, while JD Sports Fashion also saw a sharp decrease. In contrast, utility companies such as Severn Trent and United Utilities demonstrated resilience and recorded gains, suggesting investors are shifting towards more stable sectors during this period of uncertainty.

GOLD is demonstrating a bullish trend, nearing its fifth straight week of gains, having surpassed record highs. This surge is largely fueled by investor anxiety related to newly imposed US tariffs and the retaliatory measures they have provoked. While a temporary dip occurred due to profit-taking and news regarding tariff exclusions, the underlying factors bolstering gold’s value remain strong. These include its appeal as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty, anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by central banks, continued purchasing by those same central banks, and robust investment activity in gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Market participants are now keenly focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, which could offer clues about the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 3 April

GBPUSD faces downward pressure as recent economic data and government forecasts paint a less optimistic picture for the UK economy. Lower-than-expected inflation, though aligned with Bank of England forecasts, suggests a potential delay in interest rate hikes, diminishing the pound’s appeal. Further weighing on the currency are revised growth forecasts indicating a weaker economic outlook for 2025 coupled with increased borrowing for 2025-26 as this indicates continued fiscal strain. The government’s announced policy changes to restore the budget, while aimed at long-term stability, introduce uncertainty and could further dampen investor sentiment toward the pound in the short term.

EURUSD is exhibiting upward pressure due to several factors. Despite tariffs imposed by the U.S., the euro has strengthened against the dollar. This is partly because the tariffs themselves have weakened the dollar, as they intensify global trade conflict and raise concerns about economic expansion. Concurrently, cooling Eurozone inflation data, with headline and core inflation rates decreasing, suggest the European Central Bank might implement significant interest rate cuts. Increased anticipation of these cuts, amounting to a potential 65bps reduction, further fuels the euro’s relative strength against the dollar.

DOW JONES is expected to experience significant downward pressure following the announcement of new tariffs. The anticipation of a global trade war, triggered by increased levies on goods from China, the EU, Vietnam, and Cambodia, has sparked investor concern. This is reflected in the sharp decline of Dow futures and the poor performance of companies heavily reliant on imports or with extensive global supply chains, indicating a likely drop in the index’s value as markets open.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline, closing lower as market participants reacted to potential trade uncertainties stemming from anticipated tariff announcements. The overall negative sentiment, reflected in losses across European markets, weighed on the index. Specific sectors, particularly those represented by Rolls-Royce, Vodafone, GSK, and housebuilders Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, contributed significantly to the downward pressure. Conversely, positive analyst sentiment towards Bunzl and gains in WPP provided some offsetting support. Merger and acquisition activity within the FTSE 250, exemplified by Bakkavor Group’s jump, highlights specific company-level events impacting the broader market landscape.

GOLD’s price has surged to a record peak amidst heightened risk aversion, primarily fueled by President Trump’s newly announced tariff policies impacting major economies. The prospect of widespread tariffs has created economic uncertainty, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Further bolstering its value are expectations of impending interest rate cuts by central banks, consistent purchasing activity by central banks themselves, and robust demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds, particularly in China. Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including disappointing jobs and manufacturing figures, have further intensified speculation about potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve, adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls data will be closely watched for further clues about the Fed’s future actions.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 2 April

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a confluence of factors. Weaker-than-anticipated inflation data for February, coupled with revised economic forecasts presented in the Spring Statement, are weighing on the pound. Specifically, the upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast, a downward revision of the 2025 growth forecast, and increased borrowing projections for 2025-26 are all contributing to a less optimistic outlook for the UK economy. Although the government has announced measures to address the budget deficit, the immediate impact of these announcements appears to be negative for the GBPUSD pair, as traders digest the implications of slower growth and persistent inflationary pressures.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook. The potential for broad US import tariffs is weighing heavily, pushing the euro down as these tariffs could negatively impact global trade and economic growth. Adding to the downside pressure, Eurozone inflation is cooling faster than expected, reinforcing expectations for substantial interest rate cuts by the ECB. This contrasts with the euro’s recent strength in the previous month, which was fueled by dollar weakness and Germany’s fiscal stimulus. The combination of potential US tariffs, lower Eurozone inflation and the expectation of ECB rate cuts are creating significant headwinds for the EURUSD pair despite recent euro gains.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook. Investors are cautiously awaiting the implementation of new tariffs, which could introduce uncertainty. The slight dip in the Dow Jones on Tuesday, in contrast to gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suggests some vulnerability. While comments from the Treasury Secretary aim to provide reassurance, the actual impact of these tariffs remains to be seen. Additionally, concerns about the factory sector contraction and weaker-than-expected job openings could weigh on investor sentiment regarding the Dow’s performance.

FTSE 100 experienced a rebound, gaining approximately 0.6% to close at 8,635, offsetting losses from the prior session. This positive movement occurred against a backdrop of impending US tariffs and scrutiny of economic indicators. Manufacturing activity, as indicated by the UK PMI, remained weak, while house prices stagnated. Individual stocks exhibited varied performance; Rolls-Royce led the gains, while WPP PLC faced downward pressure due to revenue concerns. Overall, the market’s direction appears influenced by a combination of global trade anxieties and company-specific financial prospects.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, propelled by anxieties surrounding potential US tariffs and the broader implications of a global trade conflict. The anticipation of interest rate reductions, coupled with central banks increasing their gold reserves and robust investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds, also contribute to its increasing value. Recent economic data pointing to weakness in the US labor market and manufacturing sector further bolsters gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, with investors closely monitoring upcoming employment figures to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 1 April

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure as a result of recent economic data and the Spring Statement. Lower-than-expected inflation figures for February combined with revised economic forecasts paint a concerning picture for the UK economy. While inflation is easing, the upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast to 3.2% alongside a reduced growth forecast of 1% suggests potential stagflation. The increase in projected borrowing for 2025-26 further exacerbates concerns. Despite government efforts to restore the budget through policy changes, the overall outlook indicates a weaker economic environment, likely contributing to the pound’s decline against the dollar.

EURUSD faces a complex outlook driven by opposing forces. While the euro has found stability around $1.08 and is poised for a strong monthly gain, largely due to a weaker dollar stemming from evolving U.S. trade policies and Germany’s fiscal stimulus, concerns surrounding eurozone inflation could limit its upside. The mixed bag of inflation data, with some countries experiencing declines while others see increases, reinforces expectations for significant ECB rate cuts. These cuts, while potentially stimulating economic growth, would also decrease the euro’s attractiveness relative to other currencies, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a more hawkish stance. Therefore, EURUSD’s future performance hinges on the interplay between global trade dynamics, the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, and the comparative strength of the U.S. economy.

DOW JONES faces potential headwinds as investors react to President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcements, evident in the decline of US stock futures. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced gains on Monday, broader market anxieties concerning economic growth and heightened trade friction, particularly stemming from Trump’s pledge of reciprocal tariffs, create an uncertain environment. The mixed performance among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, with a majority showing declines, further contributes to the downward pressure, suggesting that the Dow’s ability to sustain upward momentum may be challenged in the short term.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline fueled by global market anxieties surrounding potential US tariffs and their broader economic consequences. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs impacted investor sentiment, particularly in sectors like mining, leading to significant share price drops for major players. Financial stocks also faced downward pressure as investors reduced their risk exposure. While defensive sectors provided some stability, overall market performance was negative. Corporate developments, including leadership changes and funding negotiations at key companies, added to the mixed signals. Despite a positive first quarter, the index faced a notable drop in value over the month of March, indicating volatility and caution among investors.

GOLD is exhibiting a bullish trend, driven by anxieties surrounding potential global trade conflicts sparked by impending tariffs. This uncertainty is pushing investors toward gold as a safe haven, contributing to its record-breaking price. Supporting this surge are factors like expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank acquisitions of gold, and robust exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand. Upcoming labor market data releases will be closely scrutinized for further indications of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, potentially influencing future gold valuations.

Asset Summary – Monday, 31 March

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a combination of factors. Weaker-than-anticipated inflation figures for February suggest a potentially less hawkish stance from the Bank of England, which could diminish the pound’s appeal. Furthermore, revised economic forecasts, including a higher inflation projection for 2025 and a reduced growth forecast, paint a less optimistic picture of the UK economy. Although borrowing is expected to decline overall in the coming years, the upward revision for 2025-26 borrowing adds to concerns about the government’s fiscal management. These economic headwinds are likely contributing to the pound’s recent decline against the dollar.

EURUSD is exhibiting a mixed outlook due to countervailing forces. While dollar weakness stemming from trade war escalations provides upward pressure, the looming threat of US tariffs on European automobiles poses a significant downside risk, especially for the German economy, a major exporter to the US. The European Union’s expected retaliatory tariffs could further exacerbate the economic strain, potentially weakening the euro. Additionally, the ECB’s recent interest rate cut and signals of further easing measures by ECB officials also contribute to a potentially weaker euro, suggesting a complex and uncertain trajectory for the currency pair.

DOW JONES faces potential downward pressure as investors react to upcoming tariffs and trade policy announcements from President Trump. The anticipated imposition of a 25% tariff on imported cars and plans for reciprocal trade duties have sparked concerns about potential retaliation from trading partners, which could negatively impact the US economy and therefore impact the index’s value. The recent decline in major stock indexes, including a 0.96% drop in the Dow, reflects this apprehension. Furthermore, Trump’s dismissive attitude towards potential price increases by foreign automakers and reported pressure on advisors to adopt a more aggressive trade stance add to the uncertainty. Investors will likely closely monitor this week’s jobs report and corporate earnings releases from companies like PVH, Restoration Hardware, and Constellation Brands for further signals about the market’s direction.

FTSE 100 has demonstrated substantial growth year-to-date, with a significant increase of 5.34% representing a 437-point gain. This positive movement, observed through CFD trading, suggests a bullish trend in the UK’s leading stock market index since the start of 2025, indicating improved investor sentiment and potentially stronger economic performance within the UK market.

GOLD’s record-breaking price reflects a significant increase in investor demand, spurred by global economic and political uncertainties. Escalating trade tensions initiated by the U.S., coupled with threats of tariffs and military action against Russia and Iran, are heightening concerns about international stability, thus increasing Gold’s appeal as a safe harbor for investment. Furthermore, evolving expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, specifically a potential reduction in the number of anticipated interest rate cuts, are contributing to a more favorable environment for the precious metal as the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset decreases.

Asset Summary – Friday, 28 March

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure due to a combination of factors. Lower-than-expected inflation figures for February suggest a potentially slower pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, reducing the pound’s appeal to investors. Furthermore, revised economic forecasts from the Spring Statement paint a less optimistic picture, with higher expected inflation for 2025 and reduced growth projections. Although the government is working to reduce public sector borrowing, increased borrowing for 2025-26 compared to previous estimates adds to the negative sentiment surrounding the UK economy and its currency.

EURUSD faces a complex and potentially volatile outlook. The euro’s recent gains against the dollar, fueled by general dollar weakness, could be short-lived given the escalating trade tensions. The US’s proposed tariffs on European automobiles, coupled with threats of further tariffs, present a significant downside risk for the Eurozone economy, particularly Germany, a major exporter of vehicles. This economic pressure could ultimately weaken the euro. Furthermore, the ECB’s recent interest rate cut and signals of possible further easing suggest a dovish monetary policy stance, which could also weigh on the currency. While the EU intends to retaliate with tariffs, this tit-for-tat approach is likely to create further economic uncertainty and may not be enough to support the EURUSD in the long run.

DOW JONES faces potential downward pressure as investors react to a confluence of factors. The anticipation of the PCE price index report is creating uncertainty, particularly given the Federal Reserve’s recent inflation forecast adjustments and concerns about the impact of tariffs on monetary policy. Broader market weakness, as evidenced by Thursday’s decline and sector-specific losses in energy, communication services, and technology, suggests a cautious trading environment. The imposition of auto tariffs by President Trump, and the negative reaction of major automakers like General Motors and Ford, further clouds the outlook for the Dow Jones. Lululemon’s disappointing forecast adds to the negative sentiment, indicating potential weakness beyond the automotive sector.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline, influenced by global trade concerns and specific corporate actions. President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs, particularly on auto imports, appear to have weighed on investor sentiment, mirroring a broader regional trend. While Chancellor Reeves acknowledged the sensitivity of US-UK trade discussions, the lack of immediate retaliatory plans from the UK may have provided some stability. Individual stock performance within the index varied, with some companies experiencing losses due to going ex-dividend, while others, like Next, saw significant gains following positive financial results, creating mixed pressures within the FTSE 100.

GOLD is currently experiencing a significant upward trend, fueled by anxieties surrounding international trade relations and the potential for a global economic slowdown. The anticipation of new tariffs imposed by the United States and the subsequent threats of retaliation from other major economies are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, increased purchasing activity by central banks and growing investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are contributing to the rising price. The upcoming release of US economic data, particularly the PCE index, will be closely watched as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s future decisions regarding interest rate adjustments, potentially adding further momentum to gold’s price trajectory. This combination of factors suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the near term.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 27 March

GBPUSD faced downward pressure as a confluence of factors weighed on the British pound. Disappointing inflation data for February, coupled with revisions in the UK’s economic forecasts, contributed to the decline. Specifically, the upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast to 3.2% and the lowered growth forecast to 1% signaled potential challenges for the UK economy. Additionally, the anticipated increase in borrowing for 2025-26, despite overall efforts to reduce public sector net borrowing, created uncertainty. While the government’s fiscal policies aimed at restoring the budget offered some reassurance, the immediate impact of these revisions led to a weakening of the pound against the dollar.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as recent economic data and commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) officials suggest a likely easing of monetary policy. While Eurozone private sector activity is expanding, it’s not meeting expectations, particularly with a slowdown in the dominant services sector. Furthermore, multiple ECB officials, including Cipollone, Stournaras, Lagarde, and de Galhau, have hinted at or explicitly supported the possibility of a rate cut, potentially as early as April. This dovish stance by the ECB, coupled with concerns about weaker economic growth, signals a weakening Euro relative to the US Dollar, as the prospect of lower interest rates typically diminishes a currency’s attractiveness to investors.

DOW JONES faces potential downward pressure as market sentiment weakens following the announcement of new tariffs on foreign-made cars. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs and potential retaliation creates uncertainty, which could lead to increased market volatility and concerns about the broader economic impact. Declines in major automotive stocks, such as General Motors and Ford, will likely negatively influence the Dow’s performance. The overall market downturn, as reflected in the S&P 500’s and Nasdaq’s declines, along with losses in prominent tech companies, further suggests a challenging trading environment for the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced a positive session, closing at 8,690, primarily fueled by a weaker pound that benefited companies with significant overseas revenues. The reduction in UK inflation to 2.8% contributed to this effect. However, the Spring Statement from the Chancellor offered limited encouragement to investors. The revised, lower UK growth forecast from the OBR, now at 1% for 2024, cast a shadow over the market, particularly impacting the housing sector. While defense stocks received a boost from increased spending pledges and Shell benefited from its strategic update, the overall impact of the statement was muted, leaving investors wanting more substantial growth-oriented policies.

GOLD is exhibiting upward price momentum as investors seek refuge from potential economic instability. The looming threat of tariffs on imported automobiles, initiated by the US, is generating anxiety about retaliatory actions and their impact on global trade and economic growth. This uncertainty is bolstering demand for gold as a safe store of value. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts, despite some progress on inflation, further supports gold’s appeal, as lower interest rates typically make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. Traders are keenly focused on the upcoming PCE report, anticipating that the data will offer additional clues about the future direction of monetary policy and, consequently, gold’s price trajectory.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 26 March

GBPUSD experienced a slight decline in value, closing at 1.2936 after a minor decrease of 0.06%. This indicates a marginal weakening of the British Pound against the US Dollar in the most recent trading session. While this decrease is relatively small, traders may interpret it as a signal of potential downward momentum or a lack of significant buying pressure at the current level. It’s important to consider this recent movement in the context of broader market trends and economic indicators to assess the future trajectory of the currency pair. The historical high of 2.86, achieved decades ago, serves as a reminder of the currency’s past strength but has limited bearing on immediate trading decisions, as market conditions have drastically changed since then.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the euro trades near multi-week lows. Eurozone economic data, while showing growth, is not exceeding expectations, particularly with a slowdown in the services sector offsetting manufacturing gains. More significantly, a chorus of ECB officials is signaling a likely interest rate cut, potentially as early as April, fueled by the belief that inflation is decelerating faster than initially projected. While President Lagarde downplays inflation risks from potential trade retaliations, the general dovish sentiment from the ECB suggests further easing of borrowing costs, diminishing the euro’s attractiveness relative to other currencies and consequently weighing on the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES is positioned for stable trading as indicated by steady US stock futures. Although the index experienced a marginal increase in the previous session, the overall positive performance of the S&P 500, driven by gains in key sectors such as communication services, consumer discretionary, and financials, suggests underlying market strength. The mixed signals of declining consumer confidence and potential tariff impacts create some uncertainty; however, positive corporate news, such as GameStop’s investment in Bitcoin, may offer offsetting momentum.

FTSE 100 experienced a moderate increase driven by a mix of factors, including anticipation of potentially reduced US trade tariffs and positive corporate news. Optimism surrounding possible tariff reductions, particularly after President Trump’s remarks, contributed to the upward movement. Strong performance from housebuilders, exemplified by Bellway’s reported profit increase, further supported the index. Shell’s growth targets for liquefied natural gas and enhanced shareholder distribution also provided a boost. However, the gains were tempered by concerns over declining UK retail sales and weakness in retail, drinks, and leisure stocks, suggesting some underlying economic anxieties despite the overall positive trend.

GOLD is exhibiting upward momentum, trading near record highs as investors seek its safe-haven properties amid concerns about potential US tariffs. The implementation of these tariffs, although possibly limited, introduces uncertainty and could bolster gold’s appeal. Simultaneously, traders are closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key US economic data, particularly the PCE index, to gauge the direction of monetary policy, which could influence gold prices. However, recent agreements between the US, Ukraine, and Russia, aimed at de-escalating tensions and potentially easing sanctions on Moscow, may temper some of gold’s safe-haven demand.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 25 March

GBPUSD is experiencing upward pressure due to improving economic indicators in the UK, specifically strong PMI data signaling a recovery. Reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are supporting the pound, as a slower pace of monetary easing makes the GBP more attractive. HSBC’s forecast of a key rate of 3% by Q3 2026 further reinforces this sentiment. In contrast, the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the US adds to the relative attractiveness of the GBP. Traders will be closely watching the upcoming Spring Statement for further clues about the UK’s economic direction, which could introduce volatility.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the latest economic indicators and European Central Bank (ECB) commentary suggest a likely easing of monetary policy. While Eurozone private sector activity is expanding, the growth is not as strong as anticipated, and the ECB appears increasingly inclined to cut interest rates, potentially as early as April. Statements from ECB officials, including Cipollone, Stournaras, Lagarde, and de Galhau, signal a willingness to ease borrowing costs further, despite concerns about weaker economic growth. Lagarde’s downplaying of inflation risks associated with potential US tariffs reinforces the dovish outlook, suggesting that the ECB is unlikely to counter with higher rates, further weighing on the euro’s value against the dollar. The market is thus pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut, limiting the upside potential for the EURUSD pair and potentially leading to further declines.

DOW JONES is positioned for continued stability and potential gains as investor sentiment improves. The previous day’s significant climb in major indices, including a 1.42% increase in the Dow itself, suggests positive momentum. This rally was driven by optimism surrounding a potentially more targeted approach to tariffs from the Trump administration, which could alleviate concerns about recession and weak consumer sentiment that have previously weighed on the market. Should this more flexible tariff policy materialize, the Dow could benefit from reduced economic uncertainty and a renewed appetite for risk among investors.

FTSE 100 experienced a slight decrease, influenced by ongoing attention to US tariff developments and analysis of a mixed UK PMI report. While the UK private sector demonstrated robust output growth driven by the services sector, this was tempered by weaker manufacturing figures. The performance of individual sectors was varied, with healthcare and consumer-focused stocks underperforming, while investment trusts holding substantial US large-cap equities saw gains. An upgrade of the mining sector also contributed to positive movement among related stocks, reflecting a complex interplay of factors impacting the index’s overall direction.

GOLD is exhibiting upward price pressure due to its perceived role as a safe haven, as anxieties surrounding potential tariffs on automobiles and Venezuelan oil drive investors toward less risky assets. This could lead to increased demand and potentially higher prices. However, the upward momentum might be constrained by the Federal Reserve’s potentially cautious approach to interest rate cuts, as a slower pace of rate reductions could reduce gold’s appeal compared to interest-bearing assets. The forthcoming PCE index data will be crucial in determining future price movement, as it will likely influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.

Asset Summary – Monday, 24 March

GBPUSD faces potential downward pressure. The Bank of England’s cautious stance on future rate hikes, coupled with escalating international trade policy uncertainty stemming from US tariffs, creates headwinds for the pound. Concerns about UK economic growth, evident in recent data, and ongoing challenges in restoring confidence further weigh on its prospects. While unemployment remains stable and wage growth is moderating, these factors are insufficient to offset the negative influences. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate cuts could weaken the dollar, providing limited counter-pressure on the currency pair.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) signals a potential willingness to lower borrowing costs further, even in the face of retaliatory tariffs from the US. President Lagarde’s comments regarding the potential impact of US tariffs on Eurozone growth, coupled with de Galhau’s emphasis on the ECB’s capacity for further rate cuts, suggest a dovish stance that contrasts with the US Federal Reserve’s more cautious approach. Although market expectations for ECB rate cuts have been reduced, the possibility of easing monetary policy in the Eurozone, while the Fed holds steady, weakens the euro relative to the dollar. This divergence in monetary policy outlooks, along with concerns about the Eurozone’s economic vulnerability to trade tensions, contributes to the euro’s decline against the dollar.

DOW JONES is poised for potential gains, indicated by the gap higher in US stock futures. Last week’s increase of 1.2% suggests positive momentum, and this trend may continue as investors react to shifting trade policy signals. The market’s focus on President Trump’s tariff deadline and indications of possible flexibility or a narrower scope for the tariffs could positively influence trading. Furthermore, upcoming US PMI figures and earnings reports from KB Home and Enerpac Tool Group will provide additional data points for investors, potentially shaping the Dow’s performance in the near term.

FTSE 100 has experienced a notable upward trend since the start of 2025, with its value, as reflected in CFD trading, rising by 509 points. This represents a 6.23% increase, suggesting positive market sentiment towards the leading UK companies represented in the index. Such growth can be interpreted as a sign of economic optimism or increased investor confidence in the British economy, potentially encouraging further investment and impacting trading strategies focused on this major index.

GOLD is likely to experience continued support and potential upward price movement. Safe-haven demand stemming from economic and geopolitical risks, including impending tariffs, escalating Middle East tensions, and the ongoing Ukraine war, is driving investors toward gold. The expectation of future U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts further strengthens the bullish outlook for gold, as lower rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. The combination of these factors suggests a positive trading environment for gold.

Asset Summary – Friday, 21 March

GBPUSD faces potential headwinds. The Bank of England’s cautious stance on future rate hikes, combined with growing international trade tensions sparked by US tariffs, introduces uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures which might weigh on the pound. Weaker economic data and a lack of confidence in the UK economy add further downward pressure. While unemployment remains stable and wage growth is moderating, these factors may not be enough to offset the negative sentiment. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve’s projected rate cuts offer some support to the pair, potentially limiting downside but presenting a complex trading environment.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) signals a willingness to maintain or even further ease monetary policy despite potential economic headwinds from US tariffs. President Lagarde’s remarks suggest the ECB is more concerned about growth than inflation in the face of trade tensions, diminishing the likelihood of interest rate hikes in response to tariff-induced price increases. The possibility of further ECB rate cuts, highlighted by de Galhau, contrasts with the US Federal Reserve’s projected two rate cuts, making the dollar relatively more attractive. This divergence in monetary policy expectations is driving traders to reduce their bets on euro strength, contributing to the recent decline from its near five-month high.

DOW JONES remained in positive territory for the week, indicating some resilience. While the Federal Reserve’s signals of potential rate cuts later in the year might typically boost market sentiment, the simultaneous downgrade of the economic growth forecast and raising of the inflation outlook could create headwinds, potentially limiting gains. Individual company performance, such as the negative impact of Nike and FedEx results and the positive influence of Micron Technology, also contributes to the mixed outlook for the Dow. The overall effect suggests a cautious, rather than exuberantly positive, trajectory.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline as the Bank of England opted to maintain interest rates, signaling a measured approach to future monetary policy adjustments. This decision, coupled with concerns surrounding the pace of economic recovery, negatively impacted several prominent stocks within the index. Financial institutions and industrial companies, such as HSBC Holdings, Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems, saw significant losses. Meanwhile, certain companies like Pearson and 3i experienced even greater declines. However, the housing sector, exemplified by Vistry Group’s gains, demonstrated some resilience, suggesting a mixed performance across different sectors within the index. Overall, the market’s response reflects investor apprehension towards the current economic outlook and the central bank’s cautious stance.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, trading near record levels and on track for a third consecutive week of gains. This performance is largely attributed to expectations of looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East are further bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal. Potential trade conflicts stemming from upcoming tariff deadlines are also contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding gold.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 20 March

GBPUSD is demonstrating upward momentum, likely to remain elevated as the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain higher interest rates for a longer duration compared to the Federal Reserve. This divergence in monetary policy expectations favors the pound. The market’s anticipation of shallower rate cuts by the BoE relative to the Fed strengthens the pound’s appeal. Despite recent UK economic contraction data, optimism surrounding infrastructure investments offers further support. Furthermore, the UK government’s adaptable stance regarding potential trade challenges from the US, combined with a weakening dollar driven by US economic growth and trade worries, further contributes to a positive outlook for the currency pair.

EURUSD is exhibiting a stable position around the $1.09 mark, close to recent highs. The German fiscal policy shift, involving increased borrowing for defense and infrastructure, introduces potential inflationary pressures that could support the euro. The reduced expectation of ECB rate cuts, with only two anticipated this year and a floor of 2% now priced in, diminishes downward pressure on the euro. Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions, such as the trade war and the Ukraine conflict, may contribute to volatility. Overall, the combination of German fiscal stimulus and revised ECB rate cut expectations presents a scenario that could sustain or even moderately strengthen the euro against the dollar, while global events may cause fluctuations.

DOW JONES is likely to see continued positive momentum, building on Wednesday’s gains, as futures indicated an upward trajectory following the Federal Reserve’s confirmation of plans for two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed’s decision to maintain current rates while anticipating future reductions, coupled with indications of a softening economy and job market, is generally seen as favorable for equities. Despite concerns regarding inflationary pressures stemming from potential trade policies, the Fed’s perceived dovish stance is encouraging investor confidence. Furthermore, upcoming economic data, specifically jobless claims, and earnings releases from major corporations like Nike, FedEx, and Micron Technology, could provide further catalysts for shifts in the Dow’s value.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, evidenced by its six-day winning streak, the longest in almost a year. This upward trend suggests growing investor confidence, although caution remains as major central bank decisions loom. Expectations that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will maintain current interest rates are likely contributing to this stability. Strong performance in oil stocks, led by Shell and BP, alongside gains in other sectors like industrials and retail, further supports this positive outlook. However, the departure of Hargreaves Lansdown from the index indicates a potential shift in the composition of the FTSE 100 and could have minor implications for its overall valuation.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure due to a confluence of factors. Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve makes the non-yielding asset more attractive to investors. Heightened geopolitical instability, specifically escalating conflict in the Middle East, is further bolstering demand for gold as a safe haven. Concerns surrounding global trade friction, including recently implemented and upcoming tariffs, also contribute to the positive sentiment towards gold’s value.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 19 March

GBPUSD is likely to experience continued upward pressure as the differential in expected interest rate cuts between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve favors the pound. The anticipation of sustained higher interest rates in the UK, coupled with a more cautious approach to rate reductions compared to the US, makes the pound a more attractive currency. While a recent contraction in the UK economy presented a setback, optimism surrounding planned infrastructure investments offers a potential buffer. Furthermore, a weaker dollar stemming from concerns regarding US economic growth and trade uncertainty provides additional support to the GBPUSD pair. The UK government’s willingness to negotiate around potential tariffs also contributes to a more stable outlook.

EURUSD finds support from a combination of factors, including Germany’s fiscal policy changes and shifting expectations around ECB monetary policy. The approval of increased government borrowing in Germany, particularly the investment in infrastructure, could stimulate economic growth and thus provide upward pressure on the euro. Reduced expectations for ECB rate cuts this year, suggesting a more hawkish stance, further supports the currency. The market pricing in only two rate cuts, and no longer expecting rates to fall below 2%, diminishes the potential for euro weakness stemming from monetary policy. This, alongside global factors such as developments in the trade war and the situation in Ukraine, contributes to the current trading environment for the pair, keeping it near recent highs.

DOW JONES experienced a decline alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, influenced by a broader market selloff particularly impacting technology stocks. The near-term trajectory hinges significantly on the Federal Reserve’s impending policy decision and forward guidance regarding interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. While rates are anticipated to remain steady, revisions to the Fed’s projections could trigger market volatility. Concerns surrounding global trade and potential US recession continue to exert downward pressure, suggesting that the Dow’s performance will likely be sensitive to these macroeconomic factors and any shifts in investor sentiment following the Fed’s announcement.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, with a five-day winning streak fueled by the strong performance of bank stocks. Anticipation surrounding the Bank of England’s upcoming rate decision is a key driver, with expectations of steady rates in the short term but potential rate cuts later in the year. This outlook, coupled with significant infrastructure spending in Germany, could contribute to continued investor confidence and potentially bolster the FTSE 100’s value.

GOLD is experiencing a significant price rally, driven by a confluence of factors that are likely to sustain upward pressure. The surge to record highs above $3,040 indicates strong investor interest, primarily fueled by its perceived safe-haven status during times of geopolitical instability. Events such as the renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing tensions in Ukraine are prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. Further contributing to this trend is the uncertainty surrounding global trade, exacerbated by US tariffs and the anticipation of retaliatory measures. The upcoming FOMC decision and the potential impact of Trump’s economic policies further add to the market’s apprehension, bolstering gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The year-to-date gain of over 16% underscores the strength of this upward momentum.