Category: SPX

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Saturday, 25 April

    Today’s market themes:

    • Iran talks: Shifting expectations for US-Iran negotiations drives swings in oil and risk sentiment.
    • Dollar weakness: Broad USD selling pressure continues, impacting FX crosses and commodity prices.
    • Tech rebound: Nasdaq leading equities higher, fueled by a rotation back into growth and mega-cap stocks.

    The setup: Equities are bid into the NY open on hopes for Iran deal progress, weighing on crude and USD. Look for pullbacks in oil to be bought if Trump’s stance softens, and USD dip-buying at 98.15 DXY. US 10Y at 4.302% offers resistance.

    Watch list (London time):

    • 17:00 USD: President Trump Speaks (Medium)
    • No other scheduled events
    • No Central Bank Speakers

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY: Down – Iran talks pressure, target 98.00.
    • EUR: Up – Weak USD, US-DE 10Y spread +131bp supports.
    • GBP: Up – Sentiment improved, US-UK 10Y spread -61bp.
    • JPY: Down – Risk-on flows overshadow US-JP 10Y +187bp.
    • CAD: Up – Weaker USD and oil price sensitivity at 1.3650.
    • AUD: Up – Risk appetite lifts, eyeing 0.7200.
    • NZD: Up – Dollar weakness main driver, 0.5900 target.
    • CHF: Down – Risk-on offsets safe-haven demand; watch 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY: Mixed – Play risk sentiment and individual drivers.
    • XAU (Gold): Up – Real yields falling, target 4775.
    • XAG (Silver): Up – Following Gold, watch Gold/Silver ratio.
    • WTI / Brent: Down – Iran talk hopes weighing, choppy around $94/$105.
    • Copper: Neutral – Modest China demand concerns; hold 600.
    • SPX: Up – Risk-on, 7250 potential on break of 7200.
    • NDX: Up – Rates ease, mega-caps lead, new highs possible.
    • US30: Neutral – Lagging tech, focus on economic data later in the week.
    • UK100: Down – Underperforming EU peers, still heavy tone.
    • DAX: Neutral – Holding steady, weak tech hampering.
    • Nikkei: Up – Catching up to US tech move, watch 60000.
    • BTC: Neutral – Consolidation near highs, risk-on/off correlation still relevant.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in USD, AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin, and crowded shorts in JPY and NZD — any hawkish comments from the Fed or negative trade news could trigger violent short squeezes in JPY/NZD.

    The pain trade: A complete breakdown of US-Iran talks and renewed Hormuz tensions would spike oil, send the dollar higher, and crush risk assets.

  • S&P 500 Futures Lead Risk Rally into New York – Saturday, 25 April

    Where we are: S&P 500 futures are trading at 7194.75, up 0.72% and challenging the 7200.50 overnight high. The cash index closed Friday at 7165.10 and is trading slightly below that, suggesting futures are leading the charge. The overnight range has been fairly contained, but this latest leg higher suggests a breakout attempt is underway, targeting fresh all-time highs.

    What’s driving it: The primary driver remains optimism around potential US-Iran de-escalation, initially spurred by reported talks mediated by Pakistan. The move is reinforced by strong earnings reports from industrials this week, with 19 of 23 S&P 500 industrial firms beating EPS estimates. Falling US 2Y yields (-5.9bp to 3.785%) further support risk assets, likely fueled by expectations of future Fed easing.

    • “President Trump announced a three-week ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon” – adding to the risk-on sentiment.
    • US 2Y yield breaking below 3.80%, extending the downside move from Friday’s close.
    • Net non-commercial positioning is modestly short at -109,957 contracts, leaving room for further upside on short covering.

    NY session focus: Focus remains on whether the risk bid can sustain into the NY session. Watch the 7200 level on the S&P futures; a clean break could trigger a rapid move higher. The Nasdaq’s outperformance should be monitored, as any weakness there could signal a broader pullback. Keep an eye on Trump’s speech at 17:00 London time for any geopolitical curveballs. The trade that’s working is long S&P 500, short US treasuries. The pain trade is a sudden re-escalation of geopolitical tensions, triggering a flight to safety.