Category: SPX

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 10 June

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  • Error analysing S&P 500

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  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 9 June

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  • Error analysing S&P 500

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  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 8 June

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  • Error analysing S&P 500

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  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 5 June

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  • Error analysing S&P 500

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  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 4 June

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  • Error analysing S&P 500

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  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 3 June

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  • Error analysing S&P 500

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  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 2 June

    Regime: Mixed: VIX steady at 15.32 but yields are pulling back modestly, capping the DXY at 99.05 amid light risk-off sentiment.

    Today’s market themes:

    • ECB watch: Eurozone inflation data reinforces the case for a June rate hike, setting up a potential hawkish surprise.
    • Oil supply: Geopolitical tensions compete with global demand concerns and US-Iran talks, causing volatility.
    • Positioning squeeze: Crowded short JPY and crowded long BTC may be vulnerable given current data.

    The setup: Eurozone CPI data is key today. The market is pricing in a high probability of an ECB rate cut in June, so an upside surprise could trigger a significant EUR rally against both the USD and GBP. Key risk is a weaker-than-expected print, confirming the dovish expectations and leading to EUR weakness. Watch EUR/USD at 1.1650 and US-DE 10Y spread for confirmation.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 11:00 CET EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (forecast 2.4%, prior 2.2%)
    • 10:00 ET USD JOLTS Job Openings (forecast 6.87M, prior 6.87M)
    • 11:30 AEST AUD GDP q/q (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.8%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Fed data watch / yield levels
      • Cross: Euro strength / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 98.80 / Resistance 99.20
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (EU): Inflation data key for ECB path
      • Cross: DXY pullback / US-DE 10Y widening
      • Levels: Support 1.1620 / Resistance 1.1680
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE Bailey speech / Gilt direction
      • Cross: DXY / US-UK 10Y stable
      • Levels: Support 1.3440 / Resistance 1.3500
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk / yield curve control
      • Cross: US 10Y stable / risk-off tone
      • Levels: Support 159.50 / Resistance 160.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CA): WTI under pressure / BoC stance
      • Cross: DXY / US-CA 10Y stable
      • Levels: Support 1.3820 / Resistance 1.3860
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (AU): GDP and commodity prices in focus
      • Cross: DXY / US-AU 10Y spread
      • Levels: Support 0.7150 / Resistance 0.7200
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias / dairy prices
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 0.5900 / Resistance 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CH): SNB stance / Swiss data
      • Cross: DXY / risk-off flows
      • Levels: Support 0.7840 / Resistance 0.7880
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Bullish, EUR/JPY Bullish, GBP/JPY Neutral
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE/BoJ differentials
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Watch relative yield spreads
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields down / CB demand
      • Cross: DXY / risk aversion
      • Levels: Support 4500 / Resistance 4550
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): industrial demand / gold link
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 7500 / Resistance 7700
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): EIA data / OPEC / US-Iran talks
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 90.00 / Resistance 92.00
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand outlook
      • Cross: DXY / global growth outlook
      • Levels: Support 660 / Resistance 670
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): earnings / Fed watch / yields
      • Cross: VIX regime / global risk
      • Levels: Futures support 7580 / cash resistance 7620
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): earnings / real yields
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity / VIX
      • Levels: Support 30300 / Resistance 30600
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): earnings / cyclical tone
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Support 50700 / Resistance 51000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling direction / Gilt yields
      • Cross: Global risk / US tone
      • Levels: Support 23200 / Resistance 23400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields / data watch
      • Cross: US tech / DXY
      • Levels: Support 25100 / Resistance 25300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY level / JGB
      • Cross: US tech / risk sentiment
      • Levels: Support 65500 / Resistance 66700
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): funding rates / ETF flows
      • Cross: DXY / risk sentiment / Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support 68000 / Resistance 70000

    Positioning watch: JPY remains heavily shorted (0th percentile), increasing squeeze risk if the BoJ signals policy normalization. BTC is also a crowded long (94th percentile), leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking on any risk-off move.

    The pain trade: A surprise hawkish signal from the ECB, combined with soft US data, would spark a EUR rally and punish USD longs, while forcing JPY shorts to cover aggressively.

  • S&P 500 Pauses Near Record Highs – Tuesday, 2 June

    Where we are: S&P 500 futures are currently trading at 7600.50, down 0.14% on the session, after a tight overnight range of 7576.50 to 7611.00. This compares to the cash close at 7600.00 yesterday, leaving the index near all-time highs despite some profit-taking in pre-market trading. A retest of the overnight low would challenge recent bullish momentum.

    What’s driving it: A degree of consolidation seems to be prevailing after a strong rally. We are seeing a slight pullback in US yields, with the 10-year at 4.432% and the 2-year at 4.031%, suggesting some easing of rate-hike expectations, even as the Fed remains on hold. The DXY is relatively stable at 99.05, reflecting limited directional impetus at present. The risk tone is slightly cautious due to Middle East tensions, with geopolitical headlines overshadowing some positive earnings news.

    • Speculator positioning remains moderately short the S&P 500, suggesting the possibility of a squeeze if the index continues its upward trajectory.
    • HPE’s surge on an AI-fueled guidance upgrade highlights continued investor appetite for tech stocks with strong growth prospects.
    • The JOLTS job openings data at 10:00 ET may provide some clues on the strength of the labor market, though the forecast is unchanged from the previous reading.

    NY session focus: Traders will be watching the 10:00 ET JOLTS number for any indication of labor market cooling. Key levels to watch are 7575 as immediate support, and 7620 as resistance. The trade that’s working continues to be long tech on the AI narrative; the risk is any further escalation of US-Iran tensions impacting energy supply. The pain trade is a continued grind higher, forcing shorts to cover into record highs.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 1 June

    Regime: Risk-on, supported by easing global inflation expectations as indicated by lower US 10Y yields and firm equities futures.

    Today’s market themes:

    • ISM Day: US ISM Manufacturing PMI key for near-term Fed rate path signals.
    • USD strength: DXY gains traction amid mixed global growth outlook, impacting emerging market stocks.
    • Oil price volatility: Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to underpin oil prices.

    The setup: ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET will be crucial in determining the near-term Fed outlook. A print above 53.3 could fuel further DXY gains and pressure risk assets, while a miss could see yields dip and equity futures rally. Watch US 10Y around 4.45%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 53.3, prior 52.7)
    • 10:00 ET USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (forecast 85.3, prior 84.6)
    • 20:30 ET USD: FOMC Member Powell Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (US): ISM data crucial; Fed rhetoric leaning hawkish.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows supportive; EUR/GBP weakness adds to momentum.
      • Levels: Resistance 99.20, Support 98.80.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs; US-DE 10Y widening pressures.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.1670, Support 1.1630.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength a headwind; US-UK 10Y supportive.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3480, Support 1.3440.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still slow to tighten; intervention risks persist.
      • Cross: US 10Y driving force; DXY strength adds to upward pressure.
      • Levels: Resistance 159.75, Support 159.20.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength dominating; US-CA 10Y favors USD upside.
      • Levels: Resistance 1.3850, Support 1.3790.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; China growth concerns remain.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7190, Support 0.7150.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; risk-off sentiment hurting commodity currencies.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.5990, Support 0.5940.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY strength; safe-haven demand muted.
      • Levels: Resistance 0.7870, Support 0.7820.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed, relative CB stance drives direction.
      • Domestic: ECB vs BoE/BoJ expectations key for cross-pair movements.
      • Cross: Overall DXY strength; risk impacting JPY leg most.
      • Levels: Monitor key levels on a case-by-case basis.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields rising limits upside.
      • Cross: DXY strength a major headwind.
      • Levels: Resistance 4580, Support 4520.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive, but volatile.
      • Cross: DXY strength weighs; risk appetite fluctuates.
      • Levels: Resistance 7660, Support 7420.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical tensions support; supply concerns.
      • Cross: DXY strength can limit some upside.
      • Levels: WTI Resistance 91.50, Support 88.50.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Higher.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China demand concerns still linger despite recent gains.
      • Cross: Dollar strength may temper upside for now.
      • Levels: Resistance 660, Support 640.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (US): Data-dependent Fed outlook influences direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment driving force; watch VIX reaction.
      • Levels: Futures resistance 7630, cash support 7570.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season winding down, focus on macro.
      • Cross: Higher rates sensitivity; VIX affecting valuations.
      • Levels: Resistance 30600, Support 30350.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical sectors showing resilience.
      • Cross: Bond yield direction drives sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 51400, Support 50700.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Lower.
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling weakness supportive, but overall global risk weighs.
      • Cross: Heavily affected by general mood across US/global markets.
      • Levels: Resistance 23450, Support 23300.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Sideways.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech sector; DXY driving some investor sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 25350, Support 25100.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly higher.
      • Domestic (JP): Consolidation around record highs.
      • Cross: US tech; overall risk appetite important for sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance 67300, Support 66200.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Sideways to slightly lower.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flows influence price.
      • Cross: Heavily linked to DXY; sensitive to tech direction.
      • Levels: Resistance 74100, Support 71800.

    Positioning watch: USD is crowded long at 81st percentile, and JPY remains crowded short (0th percentile) presenting squeeze risks on any dovish pivot from the Fed or a BoJ hawkish surprise. Copper and BTC are crowded long as well, both at 94th, suggesting downside risks on weaker data.

    The pain trade: A weaker-than-expected ISM, combined with Powell hinting at openness to rate cuts, would trigger a sharp rally in bonds and equities, squeezing USD longs and JPY shorts simultaneously.