Category: Nikkei

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 15 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by rising oil prices and inflation worries spooking bond markets, pushing US 2Y yields to 3.98%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Oil supply scare: Strait of Hormuz tensions driving WTI above $104, fueling inflation concerns.
    • Global bond selloff: Rising oil and inflation fears triggering broad-based bond yield increases.
    • USD strength: Dollar continues to rally on Fed hike expectations, nearing best week since March.

    The setup: Oil supply disruptions are the dominant driver, pushing inflation expectations higher and triggering a global bond selloff. The trade is to fade equity rallies, especially in growth names, as real yields rise. Risk is a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, sending oil and yields lower.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET US PPI (Prior: +0.2%)
    • 10:00 ET US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prior: 77.2)
    • 15:00 CET ECB’s Lagarde speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed bets, resilient US data, rising US yields.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, flight to safety, EUR/USD weakness.
      • Levels: Support 98.50, Resistance 99.50
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Dovish ECB, persistent inflation challenges, peripheral stress.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 1.1600, Resistance 1.1700
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE hawkishness priced in, potential for dovish repricing, Gilt underperformance.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-UK 10Y yield spread, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 1.3350, Resistance 1.3450
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish, intervention threat looms, JGBs constrained.
      • Cross: Rising US 10Y yield, strong DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 157.50, Resistance 158.50
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC’s cautious stance, CPI remains elevated, sensitive to oil price swings.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, widening US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.3650, Resistance 1.3750
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA reluctance to tighten aggressively, iron ore price concerns.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, China slowdown fears, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 0.7150, Resistance 0.7250
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias firmly entrenched, Dairy prices remain weak.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 0.5800, Resistance 0.5900
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB likely to maintain dovish stance, moderate Swiss yields.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion driving safe-haven flows out of CHF.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7900
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Bearish, EUR/JPY: Bearish, GBP/JPY: Neutral
      • Domestic: BoE remains relatively more hawkish than ECB/BoJ, yield divergence supports GBP.
      • Cross: DXY strength, risk aversion, cross-of-crosses flows impacting correlations.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: R: 0.8550 S: 0.8500; EUR/JPY: R: 171.00 S: 170.50; GBP/JPY: R: 193.00 S: 192.50
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields, lower breakevens weighing on gold.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment limited support.
      • Levels: Support $4,575, Resistance $4,600
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Weak industrial demand, Gold-Silver ratio trending higher.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion exacerbating downside.
      • Levels: Support $4,450, Resistance $4,500
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Strait of Hormuz tensions, potential supply disruptions, inventories tight.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY providing some offset to risk-off flows.
      • Levels: WTI: S: $102, R: $105; Brent: S: $106, R: $109
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns, LME stocks elevated, supply outlook improving.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk-off sentiment weighing on industrial metals.
      • Levels: Support $9,800, Resistance $10,000
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Rising real yields, concerns about future earnings growth.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off sentiment weighing on equities.
      • Levels: Futures: Support 5220, Resistance 5280
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Real yield sensitivity, mega-cap valuations stretched, AI hype fading.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, elevated VIX indicating heightened volatility.
      • Levels: Support 19500, Resistance 19700
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Concerns about future earnings growth, pressure on cyclical sectors.
      • Cross: Rising bond yields impacting valuations.
      • Levels: Support 39500, Resistance 40000
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): Stronger Sterling weighing, Gilt yields rising, commodity sector under pressure.
      • Cross: Global risk aversion, US tone dragging on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 8350, Resistance 8400
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (DE): Rising Bund yields, weak IFO/ZEW survey data, EU growth concerns.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, DXY strength, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 24100, Resistance 24300
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (JP): Stronger JPY weighing, BoJ under pressure to act, JGB yield curve flattening.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Support 38500, Resistance 39000
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Elevated funding rates, ETF flows slowing, on-chain metrics mixed.
      • Cross: Strong DXY, risk aversion, Nasdaq correlation weighing on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support $61,000, Resistance $63,000

    Positioning watch: AUD and Bitcoin are crowded longs (>95th percentile) vulnerable to disappointment if risk aversion intensifies or data disappoints, creating squeeze risk. JPY is a crowded short (<15th percentile) and could rally hard if the BoJ surprises or intervention occurs.

    The pain trade: A de-escalation in Middle East tensions, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in risk assets, would hurt crowded short positions in bonds and crowded long positions in the dollar.

  • Nikkei 225 Under Pressure Despite Firm Corporate Goods Prices – Friday, 15 May

    Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 is under pressure, tracking overnight weakness, despite slightly stronger-than-expected Japanese Corporate Goods Price Index data (Apr). The index closed down nearly 2% yesterday and continues to feel pressure today from domestic forces.

    • Watch for continued weakness if the Nikkei breaks below 61,000.
    • Risk of continued pressure from stronger-than-expected PPI potentially forcing the BoJ to act sooner rather than later.

    Bias into NY: Short Nikkei 225, targeting a move towards 60,500 as continued pressure from domestic inflation data outweighs any positive sentiment from stable US 2Y yields.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 14 May

    Regime: Mixed; VIX at 17.99 with US yields rising slightly and the DXY consolidating gains around 118.15 indicates a tentative risk-neutral stance.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Trump-Xi meeting impact: assessing US-China trade and oil relationship, especially regarding Iran sanctions.
    • US Retail Sales: markets are awaiting direction with Retail Sales release.
    • Crowded trades: the market is set up for a potential short squeeze, with several currencies and asset classes showing heavily skewed positioning.

    The setup: Traders are positioned for USD strength and are short GBP, JPY, and NZD. US retail sales data will be key to either confirming this bias or triggering a squeeze. Watch US 10Y yields; sustained move above 4.5% could exacerbate USD strength.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 07:00 London GBP: GDP m/m (forecast -0.1%, prior 0.5%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Core Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.7%, prior 1.9%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.5%, prior 1.7%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Data dependent on Retail Sales, Fed policy on inflation.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment / global growth outlook drive flows
      • Levels: Support 117.80 / Resistance 118.30
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (EU): ECB rhetoric, EU data release sensitive to global narrative.
      • Cross: DXY strength, US-DE 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support 1.1680 / Resistance 1.1740
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): GDP print spurring rate cut bets, Gilt yield declines.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-UK 10Y widening
      • Levels: Support 1.2450 / Resistance 1.2520
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ’s hawkish tone not enough to combat carry demand.
      • Cross: US 10Y strength / risk-on / intervention watch
      • Levels: Support 157.50 / Resistance 158.00
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy path, oil price fluctuations are the driver.
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-CA 10Y differential.
      • Levels: Support 1.3680 / Resistance 1.3740
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (AU): RBA policy path / key commodity prices affecting sentiment.
      • Cross: DXY correlation, China growth, US-AU 10Y
      • Levels: Support 0.7170 / Resistance 0.7230
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish stance is the driver.
      • Cross: DXY direction, Risk / US-NZ 10Y
      • Levels: Support 0.5900 / Resistance 0.5950
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB’s easing policy stance.
      • Cross: DXY strength, safe-haven demand fluctuation.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800 / Resistance 0.7850
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP Neutral, EUR/JPY Neutral, GBP/JPY Bearish
      • Domestic: Rate spreads/relative central bank stance
      • Cross: Risk, cross-of-crosses
      • Levels: Watch relative breaks; range trades
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields are the driver.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 4670 / Resistance 4700
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Gold-Silver ratio influences direction.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk correlation.
      • Levels: Support 30.40 / Resistance 30.70
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply/demand influences, WTI-Brent Spread affects trend.
      • Cross: DXY influence, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 100.50 / Resistance 102.50
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth outlook is the main driver.
      • Cross: Global growth sentiment.
      • Levels: Support 5.00 / Resistance 5.10
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Earnings, Fed policy influences market direction.
      • Cross: Risk regime, Global Tone, yields correlation.
      • Levels: Futures level Support 5330 / Resistance 5350.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap earnings are a major factor.
      • Cross: Rates / Volatility (VIX).
      • Levels: Support 18,750 / Resistance 18,850
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Industrial / Financial earnings support this.
      • Cross: Bond yield / overall market tone affecting direction.
      • Levels: Support 50,000 / Resistance 50,250
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Domestic-centric influences such as Sterling performance.
      • Cross: Market Sentiment / US tone impacting direction.
      • Levels: Support 8,400 / Resistance 8,450
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (DE): Domestic sentiment and yields.
      • Cross: US tech impacts, DXY correlation.
      • Levels: Support 24,350 / Resistance 24,450
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY impacts, BOJ policy stance.
      • Cross: US tech influence, global risk factors.
      • Levels: Support 38,800 / Resistance 39,200
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow / on-chain metrics drive direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment & Nasdaq performance impact.
      • Levels: Support 61,500 / Resistance 62,500

    Positioning watch: AUD/USD, Copper, and Bitcoin are crowded longs, creating squeeze risk if data disappoints; GBP, JPY, and NZD are crowded shorts, vulnerable to upside surprises. CFTC shows dollar index positioning very stretched.

    The pain trade: A dovish tilt from the Fed combined with strong UK data and a resolution of Iran tensions would trigger a massive short squeeze in GBP, JPY, NZD, Gold, and rates.

  • Nikkei 225 Faces Profit-Taking After Recent Rally – Thursday, 14 May

    Snapshot: Nikkei 225 is correcting after a strong run, closing down 0.98% in Tokyo. BoJ board member Masu’s speech offered no fresh hawkish signals, contributing to profit-taking. Attention now turns to US data due at 08:30 ET.

    • A break below 62,500 could trigger further downside.
    • Watch for reactions to US yields, particularly the 10Y real yield continuing its upward trend, which poses a headwind.

    Bias into NY: Cautious near-term. Without a fresh bullish catalyst from the BoJ or positive surprise from US macro prints, we expect continued consolidation around 62,500, with a potential test of 62,000 if risk sentiment sours.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 13 May

    Regime: Mixed — VIX holding near 18.40 amid rising US real yields, capping risk appetite.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Fed nomination vote and PPI data set to dictate the pace of the climb, pressuring gold and growth stocks.
    • Iran War Impact: Ongoing supply disruptions and inventory depletion boosting oil prices, triggering inventory concerns.
    • Crowded FX positions: Extreme positioning in AUD, NZD, JPY and GBP presents squeeze risks on data surprises.

    The setup: Rising real yields are the dominant force. Focus is on US PPI and the Fed nomination vote today to further define the Fed’s path. Watch for a continued bid in US yields to pressure equities and gold, with DXY bid into the European open. Key is whether 10Y TIPS break 2.00%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Core PPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.1%)
    • 08:30 ET USD: PPI m/m (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.5%)
    • 14:30 ET USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote (forecast Pass, prior —)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (US): Strong US data supports hawkish Fed, boosting USD.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows and rising US yields underpin the dollar.
      • Levels: Support 117.80, Resistance 118.50.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (EU): Eurozone growth concerns and relatively dovish ECB weigh on EUR.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and widening US-DE yield spread pressure EUR/USD.
      • Levels: Support 1.0760, Resistance 1.0820.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (UK): BoE easing expectations, pressured by persistent inflation, weigh on the Pound.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and widening US-UK yield spread pressure Cable.
      • Levels: Support 1.2460, Resistance 1.2520.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ still dovish relative to Fed; intervention risk lingers.
      • Cross: Higher US yields drive USD/JPY higher despite intervention risks.
      • Levels: Support 157.75, Resistance 158.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CA): WTI price volatility offsets CAD strength from BoC rate cuts.
      • Cross: USD strength and widening US-CA yield spreads favor upside.
      • Levels: Support 1.3650, Resistance 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (AU): RBA easing expectations and weak CPI growth weigh on AUD.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off sentiment hurt the Aussie.
      • Levels: Support 0.7175, Resistance 0.7225.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovishness and concerns about domestic demand hurt the Kiwi.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off sentiment weigh on NZD/USD.
      • Levels: Support 0.5900, Resistance 0.5950.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (CH): SNB intervention unlikely; Swiss yields remain low.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows less supportive with strong USD driving gains.
      • Levels: Support 0.7800, Resistance 0.7850.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish
      • Domestic: Relative CB stance — BoE slightly more hawkish than ECB. BoJ lags both.
      • Cross: DXY strength benefiting JPY crosses, risk tone dictates flows.
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8510-0.8560, EUR/JPY: 169.00-170.00, GBP/JPY: 192.80-193.80
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields are a significant headwind.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off environment further pressure Gold.
      • Levels: Support $4,675, Resistance $4,725.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand is soft, Gold/Silver ratio rising.
      • Cross: Stronger USD and risk-off environment weigh on Silver.
      • Levels: Support $29.00, Resistance $29.50.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): IEA reports record draw in global oil inventories due to Iran War.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment generally supportive, but DXY strength a cap.
      • Levels: WTI Support $101.00, Resistance $103.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns resurface, LME stocks remain high.
      • Cross: Global growth worries and DXY strength pressure Copper.
      • Levels: Support $5.00, Resistance $5.10.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Higher yields weigh on valuations, focus on earnings.
      • Cross: VIX spikes indicate potential for further downside risk.
      • Levels: Futures support 5200, resistance 5250 (cash: key levels to use).
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech vulnerable to higher real yields.
      • Cross: High rate sensitivity amplifies downside in risk-off environment.
      • Levels: Support 19,500, Resistance 19,700.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical sector earnings sensitive to rising yields.
      • Cross: Bond yield reaction to data key driver of Dow performance.
      • Levels: Support 39,000, Resistance 39,500.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength offsetting positive global risk sentiment.
      • Cross: Global risk appetite supports, but US tone a key determinant.
      • Levels: Support 8350, Resistance 8400.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; focus on EU sentiment indicators.
      • Cross: US tech performance influences DAX, DXY strength is a cap.
      • Levels: Support 24,000, Resistance 24,100.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness supports, BoJ policy stance is key.
      • Cross: US tech performance and risk-on sentiment drive Nikkei.
      • Levels: Support 63,000, Resistance 63,500.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates remain elevated, ETF flows slowing.
      • Cross: DXY strength and risk-off sentiment hurt Bitcoin. Nasdaq correlation matters.
      • Levels: Support $62,000, Resistance $63,000.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (above 80th percentile), vulnerable to a squeeze on any downside surprises. Crowded shorts in GBP, JPY and NZD present an upside risk.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish tilt from the Fed on the nomination vote or a much weaker-than-expected PPI print would trigger a short squeeze in crowded USD shorts and boost risk assets, especially the crowded AUD/USD longs.

  • Nikkei Remains Buoyant Despite Wall Street Tech Selloff – Wednesday, 13 May

    Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.84% at 63,272, shrugging off Wall Street weakness overnight. Sustained demand for AI-linked stocks and strong corporate earnings continue to support the index. Nidec’s sharp fall is notable amid a generally positive corporate outlook.

    • Watch for follow-through from Olympus’s strong earnings and buyback announcement; a break above 63,500 would signal further upside.
    • Risk lies in a deeper tech correction in the US, potentially dragging down Japanese tech names despite the positive domestic backdrop.

    Bias into NY: Bullish. The Nikkei’s resilience in the face of US inflation data and tech weakness suggests underlying strength, and the improving corporate outlook should support further gains. A retest of recent highs near 63,800 looks likely.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 12 May

    Regime: Risk-off, driven by stronger-than-expected US CPI data and escalating Middle East tensions, pushing the VIX higher and US 10Y yields up 5bp to 4.43%.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Real-rate repricing: Hotter CPI print fuels hawkish Fed bets, pressuring risk assets.
    • Geopolitical risk: Iran war uncertainty keeps oil elevated, supporting inflation concerns.
    • Crowded shorts: Potential for squeeze in JPY, GBP, and NZD if risk sentiment improves.

    The setup: The stronger-than-expected US CPI print has triggered a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, sending US yields higher and the dollar stronger. This is pressuring risk assets, particularly tech and emerging markets. The trade is to fade rallies in risk assets, but watch for potential short squeezes in crowded short currencies if geopolitical risks abate or US data disappoints. US 10Y at 4.43%, DXY at 98.25.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Core CPI m/m (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%)
    • 11:59 ET USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote (forecast Pass, prior —)
    • 11:30 AEST AUD: Wage Price Index q/q (forecast 0.8%, prior 0.8%)

    Bias by asset:

    STRICT SILO RULE: For every non-USD asset, the Domestic line MUST contain only domestic content (home central bank / domestic data / domestic yield / domestic political-fiscal driver). USD, DXY, Fed, US yields, and risk regime go in the Cross line — never in Domestic. If no fresh domestic catalyst exists, write “No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response” in Domestic. For commodities, Domestic = real-yields / supply / inventories / flows. For BTC, Domestic = funding / ETF flow / on-chain.

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Hawkish Fed repricing on CPI beat. Rising US yields support.
      • Cross: Risk-off flows, safe-haven demand, EM weakness.
      • Levels: Resistance at 98.50, support at 98.00.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-DE 10Y yield spread, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.0800, support at 1.0750.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Rising UK borrowing costs pressure.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, widening US-UK 10Y yield spread, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3550, support at 1.3500.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ remains dovish. Intervention risk looming.
      • Cross: Higher US 10Y yields, strong DXY, risk-off bids into USD.
      • Levels: Resistance at 158.00, support at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-CA 10Y yield spread widening.
      • Levels: Resistance at 1.3750, support at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (AU): Awaiting Wage Price Index data.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-AU 10Y yield spread widening, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7220, support at 0.7175.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ easing bias remains in place.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, US-NZ 10Y yield spread widening, risk-off flows.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.5960, support at 0.5920.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, waning safe-haven appeal of CHF.
      • Levels: Resistance at 0.7820, support at 0.7780.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bearish, GBP/JPY: Bearish.
      • Domestic: Relative central bank policy divergence remains key driver.
      • Cross: DXY strength supports JPY and GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor individual cross support/resistance.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields pressure gold.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off flows less supportive with rates rising.
      • Levels: Resistance at $4,720, support at $4,680.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh catalyst — sensitive to overall risk tone.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk-off sentiment, industrial demand concerns.
      • Levels: Monitor gold for direction, lower volatility.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Supply disruption fears, escalating geopolitical tensions.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY provides some support, but risk-off a headwind.
      • Levels: Watch for Iran ceasefire news.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China growth concerns weigh.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, global growth proxy suffers from risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Monitor China data.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Higher yields, earnings rotation away from growth.
      • Cross: Elevated VIX, global risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures at 5185. Support at 5170, resistance at 5200.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Sensitive to real yields, mega-cap earnings under pressure.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, VIX elevation.
      • Levels: Monitor tech stocks for price action.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (US): Financials and industrials facing mixed earnings.
      • Cross: Bond-yield reaction muted.
      • Levels: Trading near flatline, awaiting catalyst.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (UK): Weaker Sterling, higher Gilt yields.
      • Cross: Global risk, US tone negative.
      • Levels: Trading lower in Europe.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (DE): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US tech weakness, stronger DXY, risk aversion.
      • Levels: Trading lower on lack of drivers.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness capped by intervention risk.
      • Cross: US tech selling pressure, risk off.
      • Levels: High close, vulnerable to correction.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Funding rates easing, ETF flows slowing.
      • Cross: Stronger DXY, risk aversion, Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Finding soft support after overnight retreat.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, USD, Copper, and Bitcoin, creating potential downside risk if data disappoints or risk sentiment shifts. Crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and NZD present squeeze potential if risk appetite recovers.

    The pain trade: A surprise dovish signal from the Fed Chair Nomination Vote, coupled with weaker-than-expected US data later in the week, would trigger a sharp short squeeze in JPY, GBP, and NZD, while simultaneously hammering the USD.

  • Nikkei 225 Faces Inflation Headwinds – Tuesday, 12 May

    Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 closed at 62,743, boosted by tech strength and AI optimism. However, rising oil prices are stoking inflation concerns, as reflected in the BoJ’s latest meeting minutes.

    • Watch for further signals from the BoJ regarding additional rate hikes at upcoming meetings, particularly given upside risks to energy prices.
    • Heightened geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the US-Iran situation, could weigh on sentiment.

    Bias into NY: Cautiously bullish, but expect the Nikkei’s upside to be capped near recent highs, around 62,800, as traders digest the BoJ’s hawkish lean and monitor potential spillover from US yield moves and risk sentiment. US 10-year yields are currently at 4.38%, and watching the 10Y Breakeven at 2.47% for signals.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 11 May

    Regime: Risk-off, with oil spiking on escalating Middle East tensions and Trump rejecting Iran’s peace offer, VIX at 17.08 and 10Y yields slightly higher.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions driving oil and safe-haven flows.
    • Rate Divergence: CB policy driving FX crosses, particularly EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY.
    • Commodity Strength: Silver and Copper continue to show strong performance.

    The setup: Geopolitical tensions are escalating quickly, pushing oil higher and boosting safe-haven demand. The market is pricing in a higher risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Watch for further headlines as the situation develops; a break above $105 in Brent could trigger a larger risk-off move. US 10Y yield is at 4.393%.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 09:30 CST CNY: CPI y/y (forecast 0.9%, prior 1.0%)
    • 09:30 CST CNY: PPI y/y (forecast 1.7%, prior 0.5%)

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (US): Fed watching data; US yields steady
      • Cross: Geopolitical risk-off; Euro weakness capping upside
      • Levels: Support: 97.80, Resistance: 98.03
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (EU): ECB divergence widening vs BoE and Fed
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-DE 10Y spread widening / Risk-off
      • Levels: Support: 1.1749, Resistance: 1.1782
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (UK): BoE hawkish hold / higher Gilt yields supporting
      • Cross: DXY / US-UK 10Y spread / Risk-off offsets domestic strength
      • Levels: Support: 1.3570, Resistance: 1.3616
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ dovish / JGB yields capped / Intervention watch
      • Cross: Higher US 10Y yield / DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 156.76, Resistance: 157.18
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (CA): BoC dovish / WTI strength offset by CAD weakness
      • Cross: DXY / US-CA 10Y spread
      • Levels: Support: 1.3661, Resistance: 1.3695
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (AU): RBA neutral / China data sensitivity
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-AU 10Y / China growth uncertainty
      • Levels: Support: 0.7220, Resistance: 0.7249
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ dovish / dairy prices lackluster
      • Cross: DXY strength / US-NZ 10Y / risk-off sentiment
      • Levels: Support: 0.5939, Resistance: 0.5957
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (CH): SNB dovish / Swiss yields low
      • Cross: DXY strength / safe-haven unwinding
      • Levels: Support: 0.7774, Resistance: 0.7795
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Down; EUR/JPY: Up; GBP/JPY: Up
      • Domestic: EUR/GBP: BoE vs ECB; EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY: rate divergence
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime / cross-of-crosses dynamics
      • Levels: EUR/GBP: 0.8647/0.8668; EUR/JPY: 184.39/185.02; GBP/JPY: 212.73/213.87
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising real yields / ETF outflows
      • Cross: DXY strength / risk-off demand limited
      • Levels: Support: 4655.6, Resistance: 4714.2
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand / Gold strength
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 7953.000, Resistance: 8418.000
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Geopolitical risk / potential supply disruption
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: WTI: Support: 96.64, Resistance: 100.35; Brent: Support: 102.90, Resistance: 105.97
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China stimulus / LME stock levels
      • Cross: DXY / global growth proxy
      • Levels: Support: 625.4000, Resistance: 641.4300
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): higher yields / earnings plateau
      • Cross: VIX rising / global risk aversion
      • Levels: Futures support: 7391.00, Resistance: 7420.25, Cash support: 7398.90
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Real yields / AI bubble potential
      • Cross: Rates sensitive / Rising VIX
      • Levels: Futures support: 29227.50, Resistance: 29399.25
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Cyclical rotation out / yields impact
      • Cross: bond-yield reaction
      • Levels: Futures support: 49471, Resistance: 49706
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (UK): Sterling strength / Gilt yields rising
      • Cross: global risk aversion / US tone
      • Levels: Support: 22742, Resistance: 22850
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (DE): Lower Bund yields / weaker outlook
      • Cross: US tech weakness / DXY / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 24204, Resistance: 24362
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Strong JPY / JGB yields rising slightly
      • Cross: US tech weakness / risk regime
      • Levels: Support: 62393, Resistance: 63385
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Crowded longs / Funding rates high
      • Cross: DXY / risk regime / Nasdaq correlation
      • Levels: Support: 62393, Resistance: 63385

    Positioning watch: AUD/USD and Bitcoin are crowded longs (96th and 83rd percentile, respectively), making them vulnerable to a squeeze lower on any disappointment or USD strength. GBP and JPY are crowded shorts, a positive surprise could trigger a squeeze higher.

    The pain trade: A surprise de-escalation in Middle East tensions combined with a dovish signal from the Fed would trigger a massive short squeeze in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, while simultaneously crushing oil prices and unwinding crowded long positions in AUD and BTC.

  • Nikkei 225 Momentum Fades After Recent Surge – Monday, 11 May

    Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 is currently trading at 62418, down 1.24% on the day, retreating from record highs. The primary domestic driver appears to be profit-taking after the recent surge, compounded by surging oil prices stoking inflation concerns.

    • Watch JGB 10Y yield at 2.51%, any further rise may add pressure.
    • Risk of further decline if US equity futures reverse their course.

    Bias into NY: Cautiously bearish. With profit-taking underway and inflation concerns looming, the Nikkei 225 could test lower levels. A break below 62393 would signal further weakness.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 8 May

    Regime: Risk-on, as equity futures surge on hopes of softer US payrolls and bond yields drift lower (US 10Y at 4.357%).

    Today’s market themes:

    • US Payrolls showdown: markets bracing for a potential dovish surprise amid a crowded USD long positioning.
    • Iran tensions: Oil prices remain volatile amid geopolitical instability and supply concerns.
    • Central Bank Divergence: Focus on Lagarde and Bailey speeches while watching BoJ comments regarding JPY.

    The setup: The market is pricing in a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, fueling a rally in risk assets. The crowded USD long position leaves room for a significant squeeze if the data disappoints. Watch US 10Y yield response to payrolls and the DXY level around 97.77.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast 65K, prior 178K)
    • 08:30 ET CAD: Employment Change (forecast 12.9K, prior 14.1K)
    • 13:20 London GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (US): Fed policy outlook dependent on US data, especially labor market.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment dependent on USD strength, FX cross flows.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.20.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (EU): ECB’s rhetoric, core inflation and German Bund yields.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-DE 10Y spread favoring EUR, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (UK): BoE policy guidance, Gilt yields, services CPI.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-UK 10Y spread, risk on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): BoJ policy, JGB yield curve control, intervention threat.
      • Cross: US 10Y yields, DXY direction, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (CA): BoC policy, Employment change data and WTI correlation.
      • Cross: DXY direction, US-CA 10Y yield spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3600, resistance at 1.3700.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-AU 10Y spread, China growth outlook.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7250.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, US-NZ 10Y spread, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.5975.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Bearish.
      • Domestic (CH): SNB stance and Swiss yield curve.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven demand.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7750, resistance at 0.7810.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP: Neutral, EUR/JPY: Bullish, GBP/JPY: Bullish.
      • Domestic: Relative CB policy, relative yield spreads drive direction.
      • Cross: DXY, risk regime, cross-of-crosses dynamics.
      • Levels: Watch key technical levels, sensitive to GBP and JPY crosses.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Real yields trending lower, rising breakevens, central bank demand.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk-off sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4750.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand expectations, gold-silver ratio.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 8100, resistance at 8200.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Mixed.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Iran tensions, EIA inventory data, OPEC output levels.
      • Cross: DXY, risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Watch inventory reports, supply disruptions.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Positive China growth outlook, LME stocks, supply issues.
      • Cross: DXY, global growth.
      • Levels: Support at 625, resistance at 635.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Earnings season, Fed policy outlook, US yield reaction.
      • Cross: VIX suppression, global sentiment.
      • Levels: Futures resistance at 7420, cash support 7330.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings, real yields and AI investments.
      • Cross: Rates sensitivity, low VIX environment.
      • Levels: Support at 28800, resistance at 29000.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Bullish.
      • Domestic (US): Industrial earnings, cyclical sentiment.
      • Cross: Bond yields response.
      • Levels: Support at 49500, resistance at 50000.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, and US macro performance.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 22950.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (DE): German Bund yields and broader Eurozone sentiment.
      • Cross: US Tech, DXY, risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 24400, resistance at 24550.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (JP): JPY strength sensitivity, JGB yields, BoJ policy.
      • Cross: US tech, global risk appetite.
      • Levels: Support at 62500, resistance at 62800.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral.
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF inflows, on-chain activity, funding rate.
      • Cross: DXY direction, risk sentiment, and Nasdaq correlation.
      • Levels: Support at $79,000, resistance at $80,500.

    Positioning watch: USD, AUD and BTC are crowded longs, S&P, Nasdaq, GBP, JPY and NZD are crowded shorts. A strong payrolls number will amplify the USD short squeeze while a weak number risks a violent short squeeze in GBP, JPY and Nasdaq.

    The pain trade: A strong US jobs report would trigger a massive USD rally, crush risk assets, and inflict maximum pain on the crowded short positions in GBP, JPY and tech stocks.

  • Nikkei 225 Remains Firm Despite Geopolitical Jitters – Friday, 8 May

    Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 is trading at 62714, up 95 points (+0.15%) in today’s session, driven by firm domestic yields. JGB 2Y yields remain stable at 1.369%, while the 10Y is slightly lower, supporting risk appetite in the face of renewed geopolitical concerns stemming from the Middle East.

    • Watch JGB 10Y yield; a break above 2.50% could trigger profit-taking.
    • Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pose a downside risk, potentially offsetting domestic tailwinds.

    Bias into NY: We expect the Nikkei 225 to remain supported above 62500, given stable domestic yields and positive sentiment from US futures; however, any escalation in geopolitical tensions could quickly reverse gains.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 7 May

    Regime: Mixed, with VIX holding steady at 17.38 and US yields slightly lower, suggesting a cautious risk-on sentiment tempered by geopolitical tensions.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Mideast Peace Potential: Easing oil supply concerns dominate, pressuring crude and boosting risk assets.
    • Dollar Weakness: DXY continues its descent, supporting EUR, GBP, AUD, and gold.
    • Earnings Rotation: Focus shifts to industrial and financial earnings in the US after tech-led rally.

    The setup: Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a Middle East peace deal, driving WTI down nearly 6% to $90.21. This is providing a tailwind for risk assets, especially equities. However, crowded positioning in USD and Aussie could trigger a squeeze on any hawkish surprises. Watch US Unemployment Claims at 08:30 ET.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:30 ET USD: Unemployment Claims (forecast 205K, prior 189K)
    • 10:00 ET USD: Factory Orders (prior 0.8%)
    • 14:00 BST GBP: BoE’s Breeden speaks on Inflation

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): Fed likely to remain cautious; watch claims data.
      • Cross: Risk-on sentiment weighing; EUR and GBP strength.
      • Levels: Resistance at 97.90, support at 97.65.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment, US-DE 10Y widening.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1740, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, boosted by positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3590, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: US 10Y stable, risk-on environment, intervention risk high.
      • Levels: Support at 156.00, resistance at 156.50.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CA): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: WTI weakness, DXY direction, US-CA 10Y spread.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3620, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, China growth optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7230, resistance at 0.7270.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5950, resistance at 0.5990.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe-haven outflows into risk-on.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7800.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): EUR/GBP neutral, EUR/JPY up, GBP/JPY up
      • Domestic: Relative hawkishness of BoE priced in; BoJ dovish.
      • Cross: Risk-on favoring JPY crosses; DXY impact on EUR/GBP.
      • Levels: Monitor ranges, relative yield direction key.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Rising as breakevens rise; CB demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, safe haven demand diminishing.
      • Levels: Support at 4700, resistance at 4765.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Industrial demand supportive.
      • Cross: DXY weakness, positive risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 8000, resistance at 8250.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Peace deal/higher supply.
      • Cross: DXY strength would add to move lower; risk aversion would add to move lower.
      • Levels: Support at 90.00, resistance at 96.00.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): China rebound expectations/LME-stock
      • Cross: Global growth proxy; Dollar strength a headwind
      • Levels: Support at 615, resistance at 625
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Earnings momentum; rates stabilize.
      • Cross: Positive global tone, VIX suppression.
      • Levels: Futures support at 7380, resistance at 7410, cash support 7300.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap tech earnings supportive/ AI narrative.
      • Cross: Lower rates sensitivity, high beta.
      • Levels: Resistance at 28800, support 28600.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Rebound in industrial earnings; cyclical shift.
      • Cross: Responding positively to bond-yield relief.
      • Levels: Resistance near 50200, support at 49900.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Global risk, benefiting from oil decline.
      • Levels: Support at 22800, resistance at 23000.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (DE): Bund yields stable; weak economic data.
      • Cross: Watching US tech strength; risk-on sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 24850, resistance at 25000.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness driving earnings.
      • Cross: Catching up with US tech performance; risk-on buying.
      • Levels: Support at 62000, resistance at 63000.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow-dependent, funding elevated.
      • Cross: risk-regime, positive overall, high correlation to tech.
      • Levels: Support at 80500, resistance at 81700.

    Positioning watch: CFTC data shows crowded longs in AUD, Copper, and Bitcoin (>90th percentile) and crowded shorts in JPY, GBP, and Nasdaq (

    The pain trade: A hawkish surprise from the US Unemployment Claims, triggering a USD rally and sending risk assets lower, would hurt the most positions.

  • Nikkei 225 Surges to Record High – Thursday, 7 May

    Snapshot: The Nikkei 225 is up 4.30% to 62834, fueled by strong performance in tech stocks following Japan’s return from the Golden Week holidays. SoftBank’s surge on OpenAI and Arm investor gains is the primary driver.

    • The Nikkei is trading near the intraday high of 63091, and a sustained break above could trigger further upside.
    • Watch for profit-taking in the NY session after the massive overnight move, particularly if US yields firm.

    Bias into NY: Bullish, as the catch-up rally in Japanese equities is supported by broader risk appetite, with S&P 500 futures up 0.30%. A break above the intraday high of 63091 would confirm the move.

  • NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 6 May

    Regime: Risk-on, fuelled by falling US yields and hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East; VIX is elevated but failing to hold gains.

    Today’s market themes:

    • Geopolitical relief rally: Equities and gold gain on reports of a potential US-Iran deal, sending oil sharply lower.
    • Dovish ECB spillovers: European yields are sharply lower after ECB commentary and stable wage data, supporting European equities.
    • Crowded short squeeze: Risk assets supported by potential short squeeze with CFTC data showing traders are heavily short JPY and Nasdaq.

    The setup: Oil’s sharp decline is the key driver today, prompting a rotation into risk assets, and supporting gold. The trade is to fade the rally in gold as real yields remain positive. Key risk is a breakdown in the US-Iran deal, which would send oil prices sharply higher again and reverse the risk-on tone.

    Watch list (native time per event):

    • 08:15 ET USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (118K vs 62K)
    • 10:00 ET CAD: Ivey PMI (49.9 vs 49.7)
    • 16:15 ET CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

    Bias by asset:

    • DXY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (US): US data will be crucial in determining the next direction.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment and falling US yields are weighing.
      • Levels: Support at 97.50, resistance at 98.00.
    • EUR/USD:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (EU): Lower Bund yields are supporting as ECB turns dovish.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY and positive risk sentiment are supportive.
      • Levels: Support at 1.1700, resistance at 1.1800.
    • GBP/USD (Cable):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and risk appetite are key drivers.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3550, resistance at 1.3650.
    • USD/JPY:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (JP): Intervention risk remains, limiting JPY weakness.
      • Cross: Falling US 10Y yields and a weaker DXY are pressuring.
      • Levels: Support at 155.00, resistance at 157.00.
    • USD/CAD (Loonie):
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (CA): BoC speakers watch to see if rate cuts are coming.
      • Cross: USD weakness offset by lower WTI, US-CA 10Y stable.
      • Levels: Support at 1.3580, resistance at 1.3650.
    • AUD/USD (Aussie):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (AU): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Copper price rise and DXY weakness, China growth hopes aiding.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7200, resistance at 0.7280.
    • NZD/USD (Kiwi):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (NZ): RBNZ speakers in focus, impact on kiwi to be assessed.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and risk-on, limited by US yield impact.
      • Levels: Support at 0.5900, resistance at 0.6000.
    • USD/CHF (Swissy):
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (CH): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: DXY weakness and haven demand waning.
      • Levels: Support at 0.7770, resistance at 0.7830.
    • EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY:
      • Direction (per cross): Mixed
      • Domestic: Relative CB divergence is a driver today.
      • Cross: EUR/GBP ranges. JPY shorts are exposed.
      • Levels: Monitor key levels from overnight session.
    • XAU (Gold):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Hopes for de-escalation are driving.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY, fading risk-off, positive momentum.
      • Levels: Support at 4650, resistance at 4700.
    • XAG (Silver):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Follows Gold’s trend, industrial demand boost.
      • Levels: Support at 7600, resistance at 7800.
    • WTI / Brent:
      • Direction: Down
      • Domestic (asset-specific): Deal chatter is main driver.
      • Cross: Weaker DXY isn’t sufficient to lift with Iran headlines.
      • Levels: Support at 90, resistance at 100.
    • Copper:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Aided by optimism.
      • Levels: Support at 610, resistance at 620.
    • SPX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Boosted sentiment supports outlook.
      • Cross: VIX regime shift, global risk-on fueling.
      • Levels: Futures 7300, cash support at 7250, resistance at 7350.
    • NDX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Mega-cap resilience and lower rates helpful.
      • Cross: Rate sensitivity supporting.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • US30 (Dow):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (US): Broader market lift aids cyclicals.
      • Cross: Lower yields benefit outlook.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • UK100 (FTSE):
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (UK): No fresh domestic catalyst — sensitive to US response.
      • Cross: Riding the positive global wave, GBP drag offset.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • DAX:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (DE): Lower Bund yields, EU tone aiding DAX.
      • Cross: Taking cues from US tech.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • Nikkei:
      • Direction: Neutral
      • Domestic (JP): JPY weakness and earnings are important.
      • Cross: Risk tone and US tech performance play a key role.
      • Levels: Monitor intraday resistance and support levels.
    • BTC:
      • Direction: Up
      • Domestic (asset-specific): ETF flow stable, and funding rate stable.
      • Cross: Risk sentiment.
      • Levels: Support at 81000, resistance at 83000.

    Positioning watch: JPY is the most crowded short (0th percentile) and Aussie is most crowded long (96th percentile), per CFTC. A dovish surprise from the Fed or a hawkish BoJ shift could trigger a significant squeeze in JPY.

    The pain trade: A surprisingly strong ADP print would reignite inflation concerns and send yields higher, triggering a sharp reversal of today’s risk-on move and hurting gold longs.