Category: EU

Asset Summary – Thursday, 27 March

GBPUSD faced downward pressure as a confluence of factors weighed on the British pound. Disappointing inflation data for February, coupled with revisions in the UK’s economic forecasts, contributed to the decline. Specifically, the upward revision of the 2025 inflation forecast to 3.2% and the lowered growth forecast to 1% signaled potential challenges for the UK economy. Additionally, the anticipated increase in borrowing for 2025-26, despite overall efforts to reduce public sector net borrowing, created uncertainty. While the government’s fiscal policies aimed at restoring the budget offered some reassurance, the immediate impact of these revisions led to a weakening of the pound against the dollar.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as recent economic data and commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) officials suggest a likely easing of monetary policy. While Eurozone private sector activity is expanding, it’s not meeting expectations, particularly with a slowdown in the dominant services sector. Furthermore, multiple ECB officials, including Cipollone, Stournaras, Lagarde, and de Galhau, have hinted at or explicitly supported the possibility of a rate cut, potentially as early as April. This dovish stance by the ECB, coupled with concerns about weaker economic growth, signals a weakening Euro relative to the US Dollar, as the prospect of lower interest rates typically diminishes a currency’s attractiveness to investors.

DOW JONES faces potential downward pressure as market sentiment weakens following the announcement of new tariffs on foreign-made cars. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs and potential retaliation creates uncertainty, which could lead to increased market volatility and concerns about the broader economic impact. Declines in major automotive stocks, such as General Motors and Ford, will likely negatively influence the Dow’s performance. The overall market downturn, as reflected in the S&P 500’s and Nasdaq’s declines, along with losses in prominent tech companies, further suggests a challenging trading environment for the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced a positive session, closing at 8,690, primarily fueled by a weaker pound that benefited companies with significant overseas revenues. The reduction in UK inflation to 2.8% contributed to this effect. However, the Spring Statement from the Chancellor offered limited encouragement to investors. The revised, lower UK growth forecast from the OBR, now at 1% for 2024, cast a shadow over the market, particularly impacting the housing sector. While defense stocks received a boost from increased spending pledges and Shell benefited from its strategic update, the overall impact of the statement was muted, leaving investors wanting more substantial growth-oriented policies.

GOLD is exhibiting upward price momentum as investors seek refuge from potential economic instability. The looming threat of tariffs on imported automobiles, initiated by the US, is generating anxiety about retaliatory actions and their impact on global trade and economic growth. This uncertainty is bolstering demand for gold as a safe store of value. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts, despite some progress on inflation, further supports gold’s appeal, as lower interest rates typically make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. Traders are keenly focused on the upcoming PCE report, anticipating that the data will offer additional clues about the future direction of monetary policy and, consequently, gold’s price trajectory.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 26 March

GBPUSD experienced a slight decline in value, closing at 1.2936 after a minor decrease of 0.06%. This indicates a marginal weakening of the British Pound against the US Dollar in the most recent trading session. While this decrease is relatively small, traders may interpret it as a signal of potential downward momentum or a lack of significant buying pressure at the current level. It’s important to consider this recent movement in the context of broader market trends and economic indicators to assess the future trajectory of the currency pair. The historical high of 2.86, achieved decades ago, serves as a reminder of the currency’s past strength but has limited bearing on immediate trading decisions, as market conditions have drastically changed since then.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the euro trades near multi-week lows. Eurozone economic data, while showing growth, is not exceeding expectations, particularly with a slowdown in the services sector offsetting manufacturing gains. More significantly, a chorus of ECB officials is signaling a likely interest rate cut, potentially as early as April, fueled by the belief that inflation is decelerating faster than initially projected. While President Lagarde downplays inflation risks from potential trade retaliations, the general dovish sentiment from the ECB suggests further easing of borrowing costs, diminishing the euro’s attractiveness relative to other currencies and consequently weighing on the EURUSD exchange rate.

DOW JONES is positioned for stable trading as indicated by steady US stock futures. Although the index experienced a marginal increase in the previous session, the overall positive performance of the S&P 500, driven by gains in key sectors such as communication services, consumer discretionary, and financials, suggests underlying market strength. The mixed signals of declining consumer confidence and potential tariff impacts create some uncertainty; however, positive corporate news, such as GameStop’s investment in Bitcoin, may offer offsetting momentum.

FTSE 100 experienced a moderate increase driven by a mix of factors, including anticipation of potentially reduced US trade tariffs and positive corporate news. Optimism surrounding possible tariff reductions, particularly after President Trump’s remarks, contributed to the upward movement. Strong performance from housebuilders, exemplified by Bellway’s reported profit increase, further supported the index. Shell’s growth targets for liquefied natural gas and enhanced shareholder distribution also provided a boost. However, the gains were tempered by concerns over declining UK retail sales and weakness in retail, drinks, and leisure stocks, suggesting some underlying economic anxieties despite the overall positive trend.

GOLD is exhibiting upward momentum, trading near record highs as investors seek its safe-haven properties amid concerns about potential US tariffs. The implementation of these tariffs, although possibly limited, introduces uncertainty and could bolster gold’s appeal. Simultaneously, traders are closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key US economic data, particularly the PCE index, to gauge the direction of monetary policy, which could influence gold prices. However, recent agreements between the US, Ukraine, and Russia, aimed at de-escalating tensions and potentially easing sanctions on Moscow, may temper some of gold’s safe-haven demand.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 25 March

GBPUSD is experiencing upward pressure due to improving economic indicators in the UK, specifically strong PMI data signaling a recovery. Reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are supporting the pound, as a slower pace of monetary easing makes the GBP more attractive. HSBC’s forecast of a key rate of 3% by Q3 2026 further reinforces this sentiment. In contrast, the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the US adds to the relative attractiveness of the GBP. Traders will be closely watching the upcoming Spring Statement for further clues about the UK’s economic direction, which could introduce volatility.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the latest economic indicators and European Central Bank (ECB) commentary suggest a likely easing of monetary policy. While Eurozone private sector activity is expanding, the growth is not as strong as anticipated, and the ECB appears increasingly inclined to cut interest rates, potentially as early as April. Statements from ECB officials, including Cipollone, Stournaras, Lagarde, and de Galhau, signal a willingness to ease borrowing costs further, despite concerns about weaker economic growth. Lagarde’s downplaying of inflation risks associated with potential US tariffs reinforces the dovish outlook, suggesting that the ECB is unlikely to counter with higher rates, further weighing on the euro’s value against the dollar. The market is thus pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut, limiting the upside potential for the EURUSD pair and potentially leading to further declines.

DOW JONES is positioned for continued stability and potential gains as investor sentiment improves. The previous day’s significant climb in major indices, including a 1.42% increase in the Dow itself, suggests positive momentum. This rally was driven by optimism surrounding a potentially more targeted approach to tariffs from the Trump administration, which could alleviate concerns about recession and weak consumer sentiment that have previously weighed on the market. Should this more flexible tariff policy materialize, the Dow could benefit from reduced economic uncertainty and a renewed appetite for risk among investors.

FTSE 100 experienced a slight decrease, influenced by ongoing attention to US tariff developments and analysis of a mixed UK PMI report. While the UK private sector demonstrated robust output growth driven by the services sector, this was tempered by weaker manufacturing figures. The performance of individual sectors was varied, with healthcare and consumer-focused stocks underperforming, while investment trusts holding substantial US large-cap equities saw gains. An upgrade of the mining sector also contributed to positive movement among related stocks, reflecting a complex interplay of factors impacting the index’s overall direction.

GOLD is exhibiting upward price pressure due to its perceived role as a safe haven, as anxieties surrounding potential tariffs on automobiles and Venezuelan oil drive investors toward less risky assets. This could lead to increased demand and potentially higher prices. However, the upward momentum might be constrained by the Federal Reserve’s potentially cautious approach to interest rate cuts, as a slower pace of rate reductions could reduce gold’s appeal compared to interest-bearing assets. The forthcoming PCE index data will be crucial in determining future price movement, as it will likely influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.

Asset Summary – Monday, 24 March

GBPUSD faces potential downward pressure. The Bank of England’s cautious stance on future rate hikes, coupled with escalating international trade policy uncertainty stemming from US tariffs, creates headwinds for the pound. Concerns about UK economic growth, evident in recent data, and ongoing challenges in restoring confidence further weigh on its prospects. While unemployment remains stable and wage growth is moderating, these factors are insufficient to offset the negative influences. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate cuts could weaken the dollar, providing limited counter-pressure on the currency pair.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) signals a potential willingness to lower borrowing costs further, even in the face of retaliatory tariffs from the US. President Lagarde’s comments regarding the potential impact of US tariffs on Eurozone growth, coupled with de Galhau’s emphasis on the ECB’s capacity for further rate cuts, suggest a dovish stance that contrasts with the US Federal Reserve’s more cautious approach. Although market expectations for ECB rate cuts have been reduced, the possibility of easing monetary policy in the Eurozone, while the Fed holds steady, weakens the euro relative to the dollar. This divergence in monetary policy outlooks, along with concerns about the Eurozone’s economic vulnerability to trade tensions, contributes to the euro’s decline against the dollar.

DOW JONES is poised for potential gains, indicated by the gap higher in US stock futures. Last week’s increase of 1.2% suggests positive momentum, and this trend may continue as investors react to shifting trade policy signals. The market’s focus on President Trump’s tariff deadline and indications of possible flexibility or a narrower scope for the tariffs could positively influence trading. Furthermore, upcoming US PMI figures and earnings reports from KB Home and Enerpac Tool Group will provide additional data points for investors, potentially shaping the Dow’s performance in the near term.

FTSE 100 has experienced a notable upward trend since the start of 2025, with its value, as reflected in CFD trading, rising by 509 points. This represents a 6.23% increase, suggesting positive market sentiment towards the leading UK companies represented in the index. Such growth can be interpreted as a sign of economic optimism or increased investor confidence in the British economy, potentially encouraging further investment and impacting trading strategies focused on this major index.

GOLD is likely to experience continued support and potential upward price movement. Safe-haven demand stemming from economic and geopolitical risks, including impending tariffs, escalating Middle East tensions, and the ongoing Ukraine war, is driving investors toward gold. The expectation of future U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts further strengthens the bullish outlook for gold, as lower rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. The combination of these factors suggests a positive trading environment for gold.

Asset Summary – Friday, 21 March

GBPUSD faces potential headwinds. The Bank of England’s cautious stance on future rate hikes, combined with growing international trade tensions sparked by US tariffs, introduces uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures which might weigh on the pound. Weaker economic data and a lack of confidence in the UK economy add further downward pressure. While unemployment remains stable and wage growth is moderating, these factors may not be enough to offset the negative sentiment. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve’s projected rate cuts offer some support to the pair, potentially limiting downside but presenting a complex trading environment.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) signals a willingness to maintain or even further ease monetary policy despite potential economic headwinds from US tariffs. President Lagarde’s remarks suggest the ECB is more concerned about growth than inflation in the face of trade tensions, diminishing the likelihood of interest rate hikes in response to tariff-induced price increases. The possibility of further ECB rate cuts, highlighted by de Galhau, contrasts with the US Federal Reserve’s projected two rate cuts, making the dollar relatively more attractive. This divergence in monetary policy expectations is driving traders to reduce their bets on euro strength, contributing to the recent decline from its near five-month high.

DOW JONES remained in positive territory for the week, indicating some resilience. While the Federal Reserve’s signals of potential rate cuts later in the year might typically boost market sentiment, the simultaneous downgrade of the economic growth forecast and raising of the inflation outlook could create headwinds, potentially limiting gains. Individual company performance, such as the negative impact of Nike and FedEx results and the positive influence of Micron Technology, also contributes to the mixed outlook for the Dow. The overall effect suggests a cautious, rather than exuberantly positive, trajectory.

FTSE 100 experienced a decline as the Bank of England opted to maintain interest rates, signaling a measured approach to future monetary policy adjustments. This decision, coupled with concerns surrounding the pace of economic recovery, negatively impacted several prominent stocks within the index. Financial institutions and industrial companies, such as HSBC Holdings, Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems, saw significant losses. Meanwhile, certain companies like Pearson and 3i experienced even greater declines. However, the housing sector, exemplified by Vistry Group’s gains, demonstrated some resilience, suggesting a mixed performance across different sectors within the index. Overall, the market’s response reflects investor apprehension towards the current economic outlook and the central bank’s cautious stance.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, trading near record levels and on track for a third consecutive week of gains. This performance is largely attributed to expectations of looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East are further bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal. Potential trade conflicts stemming from upcoming tariff deadlines are also contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding gold.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 20 March

GBPUSD is demonstrating upward momentum, likely to remain elevated as the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain higher interest rates for a longer duration compared to the Federal Reserve. This divergence in monetary policy expectations favors the pound. The market’s anticipation of shallower rate cuts by the BoE relative to the Fed strengthens the pound’s appeal. Despite recent UK economic contraction data, optimism surrounding infrastructure investments offers further support. Furthermore, the UK government’s adaptable stance regarding potential trade challenges from the US, combined with a weakening dollar driven by US economic growth and trade worries, further contributes to a positive outlook for the currency pair.

EURUSD is exhibiting a stable position around the $1.09 mark, close to recent highs. The German fiscal policy shift, involving increased borrowing for defense and infrastructure, introduces potential inflationary pressures that could support the euro. The reduced expectation of ECB rate cuts, with only two anticipated this year and a floor of 2% now priced in, diminishes downward pressure on the euro. Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions, such as the trade war and the Ukraine conflict, may contribute to volatility. Overall, the combination of German fiscal stimulus and revised ECB rate cut expectations presents a scenario that could sustain or even moderately strengthen the euro against the dollar, while global events may cause fluctuations.

DOW JONES is likely to see continued positive momentum, building on Wednesday’s gains, as futures indicated an upward trajectory following the Federal Reserve’s confirmation of plans for two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed’s decision to maintain current rates while anticipating future reductions, coupled with indications of a softening economy and job market, is generally seen as favorable for equities. Despite concerns regarding inflationary pressures stemming from potential trade policies, the Fed’s perceived dovish stance is encouraging investor confidence. Furthermore, upcoming economic data, specifically jobless claims, and earnings releases from major corporations like Nike, FedEx, and Micron Technology, could provide further catalysts for shifts in the Dow’s value.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, evidenced by its six-day winning streak, the longest in almost a year. This upward trend suggests growing investor confidence, although caution remains as major central bank decisions loom. Expectations that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will maintain current interest rates are likely contributing to this stability. Strong performance in oil stocks, led by Shell and BP, alongside gains in other sectors like industrials and retail, further supports this positive outlook. However, the departure of Hargreaves Lansdown from the index indicates a potential shift in the composition of the FTSE 100 and could have minor implications for its overall valuation.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure due to a confluence of factors. Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve makes the non-yielding asset more attractive to investors. Heightened geopolitical instability, specifically escalating conflict in the Middle East, is further bolstering demand for gold as a safe haven. Concerns surrounding global trade friction, including recently implemented and upcoming tariffs, also contribute to the positive sentiment towards gold’s value.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 19 March

GBPUSD is likely to experience continued upward pressure as the differential in expected interest rate cuts between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve favors the pound. The anticipation of sustained higher interest rates in the UK, coupled with a more cautious approach to rate reductions compared to the US, makes the pound a more attractive currency. While a recent contraction in the UK economy presented a setback, optimism surrounding planned infrastructure investments offers a potential buffer. Furthermore, a weaker dollar stemming from concerns regarding US economic growth and trade uncertainty provides additional support to the GBPUSD pair. The UK government’s willingness to negotiate around potential tariffs also contributes to a more stable outlook.

EURUSD finds support from a combination of factors, including Germany’s fiscal policy changes and shifting expectations around ECB monetary policy. The approval of increased government borrowing in Germany, particularly the investment in infrastructure, could stimulate economic growth and thus provide upward pressure on the euro. Reduced expectations for ECB rate cuts this year, suggesting a more hawkish stance, further supports the currency. The market pricing in only two rate cuts, and no longer expecting rates to fall below 2%, diminishes the potential for euro weakness stemming from monetary policy. This, alongside global factors such as developments in the trade war and the situation in Ukraine, contributes to the current trading environment for the pair, keeping it near recent highs.

DOW JONES experienced a decline alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, influenced by a broader market selloff particularly impacting technology stocks. The near-term trajectory hinges significantly on the Federal Reserve’s impending policy decision and forward guidance regarding interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. While rates are anticipated to remain steady, revisions to the Fed’s projections could trigger market volatility. Concerns surrounding global trade and potential US recession continue to exert downward pressure, suggesting that the Dow’s performance will likely be sensitive to these macroeconomic factors and any shifts in investor sentiment following the Fed’s announcement.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, with a five-day winning streak fueled by the strong performance of bank stocks. Anticipation surrounding the Bank of England’s upcoming rate decision is a key driver, with expectations of steady rates in the short term but potential rate cuts later in the year. This outlook, coupled with significant infrastructure spending in Germany, could contribute to continued investor confidence and potentially bolster the FTSE 100’s value.

GOLD is experiencing a significant price rally, driven by a confluence of factors that are likely to sustain upward pressure. The surge to record highs above $3,040 indicates strong investor interest, primarily fueled by its perceived safe-haven status during times of geopolitical instability. Events such as the renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing tensions in Ukraine are prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. Further contributing to this trend is the uncertainty surrounding global trade, exacerbated by US tariffs and the anticipation of retaliatory measures. The upcoming FOMC decision and the potential impact of Trump’s economic policies further add to the market’s apprehension, bolstering gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The year-to-date gain of over 16% underscores the strength of this upward momentum.