Category: Euro

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 10 September

GBPUSD experienced upward pressure as the dollar weakened following disappointing US jobs data. This data increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, making the dollar less attractive. Market expectations for substantial Fed easing in 2025 further contributed to dollar depreciation. However, the pound’s gains were tempered by domestic factors, including fiscal uncertainties and concerns surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget. Comments from the Bank of England Governor, suggesting uncertainty about the timing of UK rate cuts, added to the mixed signals for sterling, resulting in a relatively modest weekly decline despite the dollar’s weakness.

EURUSD is demonstrating resilience, maintaining a position near recent highs despite political instability in France. The ousting of the French Prime Minister introduces uncertainty, but the market’s expectation of this event suggests its impact may already be factored in. The upcoming European Central Bank meeting is unlikely to provide immediate upward momentum, as interest rates are projected to remain stable. However, the focus now shifts towards the forthcoming US inflation report, which could significantly influence the pair. Weak US inflation data would bolster expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and potentially pressure the dollar, giving the euro an upward advantage. The market’s increasing anticipation of a substantial Fed rate cut further amplifies this potential for euro appreciation against the dollar.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook. While positive momentum from Tuesday’s gains and potential Fed rate cuts could provide support, uncertainty surrounding upcoming inflation reports might limit upside potential. Strong earnings and cloud outlook from Oracle, especially its AI-related growth, signal broader tech sector strength which can reflect positively on certain Dow components, but it is yet unclear how the general economic uncertainty may affect the index. Investors are likely to remain cautious, awaiting further economic data before making significant moves.

FTSE 100 experienced an upward trajectory, fueled by substantial increases in the mining and energy sectors. The proposed merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources significantly impacted Anglo American’s stock value, pulling up peers in the mining industry as well. Rising crude oil prices, spurred by geopolitical tensions, also contributed to gains in major oil companies listed on the index. Furthermore, stronger-than-anticipated UK retail sales figures provided additional support, reflecting improved consumer spending and reinforcing positive economic sentiment that lifted market confidence.

GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure as expectations of looser US monetary policy and widespread uncertainty bolster its appeal. Weaker-than-previously-reported US employment figures suggest the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to cut interest rates, potentially diminishing the attractiveness of the dollar and making gold more relatively appealing. Furthermore, geopolitical risks arising from the Middle East and calls for trade actions against China and India connected to the Ukraine war also contribute to a risk-off environment, traditionally favorable for gold investment. Upcoming inflation data will be crucial in confirming or challenging the prevailing dovish outlook and influencing the precious metal’s immediate trajectory.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 9 September

GBPUSD experienced upward pressure as the dollar weakened following disappointing US jobs data. This data has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, further diminishing the dollar’s appeal. Market expectations are now leaning towards significant rate cuts in 2025. However, the pound’s gains may be limited by domestic factors, including fiscal uncertainty and anxieties surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget. Furthermore, cautious remarks from the Bank of England Governor regarding the timing of UK rate cuts introduce additional headwinds, potentially tempering further appreciation of the currency pair.

EURUSD is exhibiting upward pressure, driven by a weaker dollar and a generally cautious market mood. Political uncertainty in France, specifically the upcoming confidence vote, could introduce some volatility, but the primary influence appears to be the expectation of the ECB holding steady on interest rates. The ECB’s concerns about trade and potential US tariffs are also relevant. Meanwhile, the focus on the US inflation report, following soft labor data, suggests the market is pricing in a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, possibly an aggressive one. This expectation of lower US interest rates is weighing on the dollar and supporting the euro’s strength.

DOW JONES’s near-term performance hinges significantly on upcoming inflation data. With the producer price index and consumer price index reports due later in the week, traders will be closely watching for signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy. The recent increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, along with gains in the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, indicate underlying market strength. However, corporate-specific news, such as the decline in Fox’s stock price and Dell Technologies’ slip, illustrate factors that could create downward pressure. The market’s anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, possibly a substantial one, could provide a boost, depending on whether inflation data confirms this expectation.

FTSE 100 experienced upward movement driven by positive performance in specific sectors and companies. Homebuilders like Vistry and retailers such as Marks & Spencer contributed to the index’s gains following positive company-specific news. Oil giants Shell and BP also lent support amid rising crude prices. However, the Phoenix Group’s decline, despite strong profits, offset some of these gains. Macroeconomic signals were mixed, with slowing wage growth potentially easing inflationary pressures while political uncertainty in France may have a limited negative impact. Overall, the FTSE 100’s direction seems influenced by a combination of individual company performance and broader economic factors.

GOLD is experiencing a significant upward trend, recently reaching a record high, driven by anticipation of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve later in the year. The market’s belief in these rate cuts, spurred by weaker-than-expected employment data, has fueled investment in the precious metal. Upcoming inflation data releases will be closely watched for further clues about the Fed’s monetary policy. In addition to interest rate speculation, the value of gold is being bolstered by its traditional role as a safe haven investment amidst global economic and political anxieties, including concerns about US tariffs and geopolitical instability. The combination of a weakening US dollar, robust central bank buying activity, accommodative monetary policies, and a climate of global instability has contributed to the metal’s substantial gains this year.

Asset Summary – Monday, 8 September

GBPUSD experienced upward pressure as the dollar weakened following US jobs data that suggested a cooling labor market, increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The market is anticipating significant easing by the Fed in the coming year. However, despite this boost, the pound is facing headwinds. Concerns about fiscal policy and the upcoming Autumn Budget are creating uncertainty in the UK. Furthermore, comments from the Bank of England Governor indicating doubt about the timing of UK rate cuts are adding to the downward pressure. These conflicting factors suggest a potentially volatile period for the currency pair, with the strength from US data potentially offset by domestic economic anxieties in the UK.

EURUSD is experiencing upward pressure as dollar weakness intensifies following disappointing US jobs data, solidifying expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This outlook contrasts with the Eurozone, where the European Central Bank is anticipated to hold rates steady amidst a stable economic environment, with inflation near its target. However, fiscal concerns in Europe, driven by potential increases in defense spending and German infrastructure projects, introduce some uncertainty. The upcoming French confidence vote adds a layer of political risk that could influence the currency pair.

DOW JONES’s short-term direction is uncertain, influenced heavily by upcoming inflation reports. Recent losses, despite initially reaching record highs, reflect investor anxiety following weaker-than-expected jobs data, suggesting potential economic slowdown. The anticipation of these inflation figures is creating volatility, as traders are adjusting their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could lead to further declines, particularly if the market anticipates a more aggressive rate hike, while weaker inflation could provide some support.

FTSE 100 experienced a slight dip, closing at 9208 points, which represents a minimal decrease of 0.09% on September 5, 2025. Looking at recent performance, the index demonstrates an upward trend, having gained 0.48% over the preceding month. Furthermore, when viewed year-over-year, the FTSE 100 exhibits substantial growth, showing an increase of 12.55%, suggesting positive overall market sentiment in the United Kingdom.

GOLD is exhibiting bullish signals, supported by a confluence of factors. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, spurred by weaker-than-anticipated US employment data, is placing downward pressure on the dollar, indirectly boosting gold’s appeal as a safe haven and alternative investment. Moreover, consistent purchasing by central banks, particularly the People’s Bank of China, reinforces demand and upward price momentum. Ongoing global economic and political instability further strengthens the investment case for gold, contributing to its substantial year-to-date gains and suggesting potential for continued appreciation. Investors are now closely watching upcoming US inflation data for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, which will likely influence gold’s near-term trajectory.

Asset Summary – Friday, 5 September

GBPUSD is exhibiting a mixed outlook. Easing concerns in bond markets provide some support, as does anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts spurred by weaker-than-expected US labor data, including a significant miss in the recent ADP employment figures. These factors could potentially weaken the US dollar and benefit the pound. However, the pound faces domestic challenges from fiscal uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget. Furthermore, comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggest a less certain timeline for UK rate cuts, which currently are not fully priced in until April, limiting potential upside for the pound. The interplay between these opposing forces creates a complex trading environment for GBPUSD.

EURUSD’s near-term trajectory appears uncertain. The euro found some stability around the $1.16 level, potentially bolstered by calming bond markets. However, the outlook hinges significantly on the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report. Weaker than expected US employment data, highlighted by a disappointing ADP report and other signs of a cooling labor market, has fueled speculation of a less aggressive Federal Reserve, which could weaken the dollar and consequently lift the EURUSD pair. Conversely, stronger US jobs data could reinforce the dollar’s strength. Adding to the complexity, fiscal concerns in Europe, stemming from potential increases in defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany, alongside political uncertainties like the upcoming French confidence vote, could weigh on the euro and pressure the EURUSD downwards. Therefore, the pair is likely to exhibit volatility as the market assesses these competing forces.

DOW JONES could see continued upward pressure, driven by increased investor confidence stemming from weaker-than-expected labor market data. This data suggests the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates later this month, a move typically seen as positive for stocks. The positive performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite further reinforces a bullish sentiment, and specific corporate successes, like Broadcom’s impressive earnings and AI-related orders, can contribute to broader market optimism potentially lifting the Dow.

FTSE 100 is demonstrating positive momentum, reflected in its rise to a week-high, driven by stabilizing global bond markets and anticipation surrounding potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The positive performance was further boosted by strong corporate news, particularly within the retail sector, which spurred investor interest in related stocks. Gains in financials and real estate also contributed to the index’s overall advancement. However, the index faced headwinds from declines in the travel sector due to concerns about market challenges, along with losses in specific commodity and mining companies. Additionally, a negative analyst report impacted a major aerospace and engineering company, creating further downward pressure.

GOLD is exhibiting bullish momentum, driven by a confluence of factors suggesting further price appreciation. The anticipation of decreasing US interest rates, fueled by weakening labor market indicators, makes holding gold more attractive relative to interest-bearing investments. This expectation is reinforced by market pricing reflecting the potential for multiple rate cuts this year. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical instability, economic uncertainties, and trade risks are bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, providing additional upward pressure on its value. Changes in the composition and leadership of the Federal Open Market Committee, with potential appointments favoring a more dovish monetary policy, further solidify the positive outlook for gold.

Asset Summary – Thursday, 4 September

GBPUSD is experiencing upward pressure due to a weakened US dollar following underwhelming US jobs data, which has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. However, the pound’s gains could be limited by domestic concerns, including fiscal uncertainties surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget and potential tax increases or spending cuts. The Bank of England’s cautious stance on rate cuts, with markets pushing back expectations for the next cut to April, further complicates the outlook for the pound, suggesting a potential tug-of-war between dollar weakness and domestic headwinds.

EURUSD is exhibiting upward pressure. The dollar’s decline, driven by disappointing US jobs data which increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, favors euro strength. While fiscal concerns in Europe and a looming confidence vote in France introduce some uncertainty, the slightly higher-than-expected eurozone inflation reinforces the expectation that the ECB will hold interest rates steady. This anticipated ECB inaction, coupled with potential US rate cuts, contributes to a positive outlook for the euro relative to the dollar.

DOW JONES faces a mixed outlook as investors digest recent market movements and anticipate key economic data releases. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced gains, driven by the tech sector, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight decline. This suggests potential headwinds for the Dow, possibly influenced by sectors beyond technology. The upcoming ADP private payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, and the nonfarm payrolls data will be critical in shaping investor sentiment and, consequently, the Dow’s trajectory. Labor market weakness, as indicated by falling job openings, could weigh on the index if the data confirms this trend.

FTSE 100 experienced a positive trading day, recovering from a previous decline as bond yields rose to levels not seen since 1998. Chancellor Reeves’ upcoming Budget is creating uncertainty in the market due to speculation about potential tax increases, which could impact investor sentiment. Positive domestic data showing strong growth in the services sector provided some support. Gains in precious metals companies, driven by record high gold prices, and copper miners boosted the index, while a downgrade of Pearson impacted its performance negatively, illustrating the influence of individual stock movements on the overall index.

GOLD is currently experiencing a slight pullback after a significant rally, but underlying factors suggest continued positive momentum. While investors are taking a breather ahead of key US labor data releases, the metal’s recent surge is attributed to its safe-haven appeal amid global uncertainties and growing anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Lingering economic anxieties, alongside concerns surrounding tariffs and government debt, further bolster gold’s value. Recent data indicating a weakening US labor market reinforces expectations of monetary easing, potentially driving further gains. With the asset already up considerably this year, the market is awaiting more clarity from upcoming employment reports to gauge the future direction of both the economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy, but the overall outlook remains bullish.

Asset Summary – Wednesday, 3 September

GBPUSD is facing downward pressure as the British pound weakens against the US dollar. Concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook are driving up long-term government bond yields, signaling potential economic strain. The anticipation of tax increases to address the deficit further clouds the outlook. Political uncertainty adds to the negative sentiment, while investors are closely watching the Bank of England for clues about future monetary policy, creating volatility and suggesting potential for further declines in the pound’s value relative to the dollar.

EURUSD faces downward pressure as rising European government bond yields, particularly in France and Germany, signal growing fiscal concerns. The significant increase in German borrowing plans and worries surrounding French debt create unease, overshadowing the slightly above-target eurozone inflation. This situation suggests that while the ECB is likely to maintain current interest rates, the underlying economic fragility could weaken the euro against the dollar. Traders may perceive the increased borrowing and debt concerns as a negative signal for the euro’s long-term stability and attractiveness, potentially leading to a decline in its value relative to the US dollar.

DOW JONES faces potential headwinds despite positive after-hours movement in tech stocks. While Alphabet’s antitrust case resolution sparked gains in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, suggesting possible positive spillover, the Dow previously experienced losses due to broader concerns regarding trade policy, interest rate expectations, and economic data. Rising Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year and 30-year rates, continue to exert downward pressure on equities. Moreover, historical trends indicate September tends to be a challenging month for stock performance, suggesting continued volatility and potential declines for the Dow.

FTSE 100 experienced a significant decline, reaching a low not seen since early August, primarily influenced by domestic financial anxieties. Increased long-term borrowing costs in the UK are creating uncertainty, potentially leading to fiscal adjustments like tax increases or spending cuts, which are negatively impacting investor confidence. Real estate, utilities, banking, and retail sectors faced considerable downward pressure. While most sectors struggled, rising gold and crude oil prices provided support for certain companies, specifically those involved in precious metals and energy, leading to isolated gains amidst the broader market downturn. The overall sentiment remains cautious, with global attention focused on upcoming economic data releases that could further influence market direction.

GOLD is exhibiting upward momentum, driven by multiple factors that suggest continued price support. Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are a primary catalyst, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. Heightened economic and political uncertainty, including trade disputes and concerns over central bank independence, are further bolstering demand as investors seek safe-haven assets. A weakening dollar and anxieties surrounding broader market stability are also contributing to gold’s appeal, reinforcing its role as a hedge against risk. These converging elements point towards a potentially bullish outlook for gold in the near term.

Asset Summary – Tuesday, 2 September

GBPUSD is likely to experience continued upward pressure, driven by a confluence of factors. A weaker dollar, influenced by concerns regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence and ongoing trade disputes, provides a tailwind for the pair. Domestically, in the UK, attention will be focused on the upcoming Autumn Budget and any signals from the Bank of England regarding future monetary policy, potentially impacting the pound’s value depending on the tone and indications of future actions. Investors should monitor these events for potential volatility and directional cues.

EURUSD is exhibiting bullish momentum, driven by dollar weakness and supported by potential easing of trade tensions between the US and Europe. The euro’s recent gains are fueled by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and concerns about its independence, making the upcoming US labor market data particularly important for determining future direction. The European Commission’s proposal to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods further strengthens the euro’s position by potentially leading to reduced US tariffs on European cars. However, political instability in France could introduce some volatility and temper the euro’s upward trajectory.

DOW JONES faces a potentially challenging period as trading resumes after the holiday. Historical trends suggest September is often a weak month for equities, which could pressure the Dow. Furthermore, uncertainty stemming from a recent court ruling against Trump’s tariffs and ongoing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, specifically regarding potential changes in its leadership, may weigh on investor sentiment. While the Dow experienced gains in August, these positive trends could be overshadowed by the confluence of these factors, potentially leading to volatility or a downward correction.

FTSE 100 experienced a mixed trading day, ultimately closing with minimal gains. The upward pressure came primarily from positive performance in defense and precious metals stocks, boosted by factors such as a significant warship export deal for the UK and rising gold and silver prices. Simultaneously, the index faced headwinds from underperforming utility stocks and a continued contraction in the UK’s manufacturing sector, as indicated by PMI data. Investor sentiment appears cautious, pending key economic data releases from the U.S., which could further influence the index’s direction. Healthy credit flows and rising mortgage approvals domestically offered a somewhat offsetting positive signal.

GOLD is experiencing significant upward pressure, driven by a confluence of factors. The anticipation of a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is weakening the US dollar, making gold more attractive. This expectation stems from recent US inflation data. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report will likely further shape expectations about the magnitude of the rate cut. Furthermore, concerns about the Fed’s independence, fueled by the disputed legality of a governor’s dismissal, and uncertainty regarding tariffs, despite a court ruling against their legality, are bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal, collectively pushing prices to record levels.