Snapshot: Brent crude is trading below $79.00 per barrel, languishing near its lowest levels since March as expectations grow for a Friday US-Iran interim deal. This geopolitical shift threatens to immediately unlock over 100 oil-laden tankers and lift shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Downside pressure is heavily reinforced by the IEA slashing global demand forecasts, completely overshadowing supportive inventory dynamics ahead of the 14:00 ET FOMC decision.
- Key Level: Physical support sits at the March low of $78.20; a clean break exposes $75.00, though the reported 8.3 million-barrel draw in US crude inventories provides a minor technical buffer.
- NY Session Risk: Tanker operators are already preemptively repositioning vessels, meaning any official confirmation of the Friday deal timeline during President Trump’s 09:30 ET speech will trigger rapid algorithmic selling.
Bias into NY: Bearish. We expect Brent to target $77.50 as supply-glut reality overrides local inventory draws, a move that will accelerate if a hawkish FOMC at 14:00 ET keeps the USD broad index firm above 119.50.