Snapshot: Brent crude is pinned below $80, on track for an 8.5% weekly loss as the Middle East geopolitical risk premium rapidly deflates. Tanker traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz—with 10 million barrels transiting yesterday, including Saudi vessels—more than offsetting the friction of delayed US-Iran diplomatic talks. This return of physical supply is driving the tape, leaving the market highly vulnerable to further downside despite a slightly softer US dollar index at 119.50.
- Hormuz Flow Metric: Monitor Persian Gulf outbound transits; while Friday morning registered a temporary lull, the return of Saudi fleets confirms physical trade routes are clearing.
- Squeeze Risk: Watch the 08:30 ET US macro prints; any hawkish yield surprise that pushes the US 10-year yield beyond 4.50% will accelerate liquidations from stale length.
Bias into NY: We are sellers of intraday rallies up to $80.30, targeting a clean break of $78.50 as physical barrels flood back into a market already skeptical of OPEC’s demand projections.