Snapshot: Brent crude has steadied near $80.00 per barrel, nursing an 8.5% weekly loss as the geopolitical risk premium evaporates. Physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz are showing signs of structural normalization after Saudi tankers resumed transits, though today’s pause in outbound Persian Gulf shipments and delayed US-Iran talks in Switzerland keep intraday price action highly volatile.
- Hormuz Flow Pivot: The $80.00 support level is the critical line in the sand; a daily close below this handle confirms the full unwind of the war premium, especially as nearly 10 million barrels of crude transiting the strait on Thursday begin hitting the water.
- Switzerland Headline Risk: Any sudden diplomatic breakthrough regarding the delayed US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland represents the primary downside trigger for the NY session, where a fast return of Iranian barrels will clash with OPEC’s already-questioned demand projections.
Bias into NY: We are structurally bearish below $81.20 and look to sell intraday bounces targeting $78.50, as physical supply normalization in the Middle East easily overrides the minor tailwind of a softer US broad dollar index at 119.50.