Snapshot: Brent crude is trading near $80 per barrel, facing a steep 9% weekly decline as geopolitical risk premium evaporates on signs of resuming tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Physical flows showed nearly 10 million barrels transiting the strait yesterday, including Saudi-owned vessels, which offsets immediate supply friction despite Swiss peace talks being delayed. This supply-side normalization dominates the tape, while a rise in the US 2-year yield to 4.2% adds a secondary macro drag before the New York open.
- The $80.00/bbl psychological level remains the key battleground; a clean break below this pivot opens the door to the pre-conflict structural support band near $78.50.
- Watch the upcoming US 08:30 ET data print, where any hawkish surprise could lift the dollar and push the VIX past 18.44, accelerating the liquidation of remaining crude length.
Bias into NY: We lean bearish, targeting a test of $78.50 as physical Hormuz shipping flows normalize, with any macro risk aversion from the 08:30 ET data serving to accelerate the sell-off.