Snapshot: Brent crude is trading just below the $80 mark at $79.85, down nearly 9% on the week as physical supply anxiety in the Middle East rapidly deflates. The resumption of Saudi tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz—with 10 million barrels clearing the chokepoint yesterday—has effectively neutralized the risk premium, even as delayed Swiss peace talks cap further aggressive selling. This supply normalization is forcing a swift unwinding of geopolitical length before the NY cash open.
- Technical Levels: The psychological $80.00 level has flipped to near-term resistance, leaving the physical market exposed to a test of the key $78.50 area if outbound Persian Gulf flows show sustained normalization.
- Swiss Talk Headlines: Keep an eye on any sudden updates regarding the rescheduled US-Iran diplomatic timeline; any further postponement will trigger immediate short-covering, amplified by a broader risk-off tone as the VIX sits at 18.44.
Bias into NY: We are bearish below $80.50, targeting $78.50 as returning tanker traffic dominates the tape, while higher US real yields at 2.23% act as a secondary macro headwind.