Snapshot: Brent is pushing higher, driven by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ reluctance to ramp up output materially following the UAE’s exit. News wires report Brent is trading around $110 a barrel, near a four-year high. Focus shifts to whether Gov. Macklem’s 15:30 ET remarks offer fresh insight into BoC policy and its impact on commodity demand.
- Watch for further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz; Trump’s pledge to “free” stranded cargo ships could add fuel to the fire.
- A break above $112.00 would confirm bullish momentum, while a failure to hold $108 could signal a temporary top.
Bias into NY: Bullish, with geopolitical risks and limited OPEC+ supply increases supporting prices. We expect Brent to test $112.00, with real yields remaining elevated capping gains short of $115.