Snapshot: AUD/USD hovers near $0.7200, pressured by growing expectations the RBA will need to ease policy sooner than previously anticipated. The Wage Price Index print at 11:30 AEST will be crucial; a miss to the downside would cement the dovish narrative. Positioning also suggests crowded longs.
- Watch for a break below $0.7180 support if wage growth disappoints.
- PPI data at 08:30 ET in the US could trigger USD-led volatility, potentially exacerbating Aussie weakness.
Bias into NY: Short AUD/USD. The RBA’s reluctance to commit to a cut path is being challenged by market pricing; weaker wage data would accelerate the move, targeting $0.7150. Rising US 10Y real yields, currently at 1.95%, also present a headwind.