Snapshot: AUD/USD trades heavy near 0.7200, pressured by growing expectations of an RBA rate cut as early as May or July. Bullock’s recent statement highlighting “uneven” progress on inflation continues to be digested. No key Australian data scheduled before the NY open.
- Watch 0.7150; break opens a test of the April lows.
- Geopolitical tensions around Saudi Arabia/Iran, as well as Ukraine/Russia, could weigh on risk and pressure the Aussie further.
Bias into NY: Short AUD/USD, targeting a break of 0.7150, as the RBA’s reluctance to commit to a cut path leaves the Aussie vulnerable to dovish repricing; falling US real yields offer only limited support.