Snapshot: The Aussie has slumped to around 0.7050 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% today, pausing after three consecutive hikes earlier this year. Despite the board retaining a warning that further rate hikes are not off the table, the market has seized on the unanimous hold as a clear signal that the RBA’s tightening cycle has peaked. This domestic pivot is compounded by weak Chinese retail sales, which posted their first contraction in over three years.
- Technical Levels: Key support at 0.7020 is now firmly under threat; a clean break opens the door to the 0.6980 level as Australian yield advantages diminish.
- Session Catalyst: While the domestic RBA catalyst is digested, the afternoon risk rests on the 08:30 NY US data slate, which could squeeze light speculative longs if the print triggers broader dollar buying.
Bias into NY: We are sellers of AUD/USD on any intraday bounce toward 0.7080, targeting a run to 0.7000 as domestic rate support erodes, even with the broader USD index trading softer at 119.51.