Asset Summary – Tuesday, 16 September
GBPUSD is demonstrating potential for further upside as the pound benefits from expectations that the Bank of England will likely hold rates steady, with a slower pace of quantitative tightening. Crucially, the anticipation of UK inflation data near recent highs and upcoming employment and retail sales figures add to the bullish sentiment. Conversely, the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, coupled with market forecasts for additional cuts, may weaken the dollar, further supporting the GBPUSD pair. The contrast in monetary policy outlooks between the BoE and the Fed creates a supportive environment for the pound relative to the dollar.
EURUSD faces a mixed outlook. France’s credit downgrade could exert downward pressure on the euro as it reflects concerns about the Eurozone’s economic stability. However, the expected Federal Reserve rate cut would likely weaken the dollar, potentially offsetting the euro’s weakness. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan’s anticipated inaction is unlikely to significantly impact the pair, while the ECB’s indication that its rate-cutting cycle is likely over could provide some support to the euro. The overall direction of EURUSD will likely depend on the magnitude of the Fed’s rate cut and any surprises from the central bank meetings, particularly regarding future policy guidance.
DOW JONES experienced a slight increase on Monday, contributing to a generally positive market sentiment where other major indexes reached record highs. Although the Dow’s gains were modest compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the positive movement suggests underlying strength, potentially influenced by optimistic trade talk progress between the US and China. Anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates and subsequent commentary by the Fed Chair will likely be a key factor in shaping the Dow’s performance in the near term.
FTSE 100 experienced a decline attributed to significant losses in pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, particularly AstraZeneca’s investment pause and GlaxoSmithKline’s downturn. BT’s stock also dipped following board member appointments. Conversely, Sainsbury’s saw a substantial increase after abandoning Argos sale negotiations. The index’s direction will likely be influenced by upcoming central bank meetings and the release of UK inflation data, with predictions of a high year-on-year rate. These economic events and corporate developments create a mixed outlook for the FTSE 100’s future performance.
GOLD is experiencing upward price pressure, driven primarily by a weakening US dollar. The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to further support gold prices, as lower rates typically make the dollar less attractive and gold more appealing as an investment. The market’s expectation of continued rate cuts into the following year reinforces this positive outlook. Traders will be closely monitoring the Fed’s economic projections and statements for clues about the future trajectory of monetary policy, as well as economic data releases to gauge the strength of the US economy, all of which can influence gold’s value. The ongoing political and legal challenges facing the Federal Reserve could also contribute to market uncertainty, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe haven asset.