Asset Summary – Thursday, 25 September
GBPUSD experienced a slight increase, gaining 0.05% to reach 1.3457 on September 25, 2025. Examining recent performance, the currency pair demonstrates mixed signals. While there has been a marginal decline of 0.15% over the past month, suggesting some short-term weakness, the overall trend for the year remains positive, with a 0.35% increase. This indicates that despite recent dips, the British Pound has generally strengthened against the US Dollar over the past year, potentially pointing to continued, albeit possibly volatile, trading patterns.
EURUSD faces downward pressure as disappointing German economic data, specifically the decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index, weakens the euro. While Eurozone private sector activity shows mixed signals, with services expanding and manufacturing contracting, the overall sentiment remains fragile. Adding to the uncertainty is the anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in October, fueled by cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding inflation and labor market conditions. The market’s focus now shifts to the upcoming US PCE price index, which will likely provide further direction for the pair based on its impact on Fed policy expectations. This creates a complex environment where the euro’s weakness combined with potential dollar strength could lead to further declines in the EURUSD exchange rate.
DOW JONES faces a potentially challenging period as indicated by recent market trends. The index experienced a slight decline, mirroring broader market pullbacks influenced by anxieties surrounding AI stock valuations and profit-taking after reaching record highs. Concerns voiced by the Federal Reserve regarding persistent inflation and elevated equity prices add to the uncertainty. The upcoming jobless claims data will be closely scrutinized for insights into the direction of interest rates, which could significantly impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the Dow’s performance. Intel’s potential deal with Apple, while positive for Intel, does not appear to have provided a significant boost to the overall market sentiment reflected in the Dow.
FTSE 100 experienced upward movement, surpassing the performance of other major European indices, primarily fueled by significant gains in the copper mining sector. The increase in copper prices, triggered by supply concerns in the global market, greatly benefited Antofagasta due to its specialization in copper production, and to a lesser extent boosted other diversified miners. Further support came from gains in the defence sector, possibly linked to geopolitical concerns. Offsetting some of these gains was a decline in JD Sports shares, which reflected potential consumer spending concerns, indicating a mixed performance overall with commodity-related stocks driving the positive trend.
GOLD’s price is navigating a complex environment influenced by conflicting forces. The Federal Reserve’s uncertain monetary policy, underscored by differing opinions among officials regarding future rate cuts, creates volatility. Stronger-than-anticipated housing data suggests economic resilience, potentially diminishing the urgency for rate cuts, which would typically support gold. However, geopolitical instability, fueled by escalating tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, provides a counterbalance, bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal and preventing a significant price decline. Therefore, gold’s trajectory is likely to be dictated by the interplay between economic indicators influencing the Fed’s decisions and the persistence of global geopolitical risks.