Asset Summary – Thursday, 12 February
US DOLLAR’s value is showing signs of stability and potential strength. Positive US labor market data, including a significant increase in nonfarm payrolls and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, is bolstering the dollar. This data has reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, which is providing upward pressure on the dollar. The market is now anticipating a later start to rate cuts, with July being the most likely timeframe. Support is also coming from a weakening yen, which had previously been gaining ground. Upcoming inflation data, specifically the January CPI report, will be crucial in determining the dollar’s trajectory.
BRITISH POUND is facing headwinds due to weaker-than-expected UK economic growth, particularly a slowdown in GDP expansion and contractions in industrial output and construction. Adding to the pressure is the Bank of England’s dovish stance, with investors anticipating potential rate cuts. Political uncertainty surrounding the Prime Minister’s leadership is also weighing on the currency. However, a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and an improved risk appetite, could offer some support. Overall, the Pound’s near-term trajectory depends heavily on upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation figures, which will influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
EURO is experiencing mixed signals. Initially, the currency found support from the European Central Bank’s perceived comfort with its recent appreciation and speculation around a key ECB official’s early departure, suggesting potential future policy shifts. However, stronger-than-expected US jobs data has strengthened the US dollar, increasing the likelihood of delayed and potentially fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts, placing downward pressure on the euro. While the pair has shown modest recovery, attention now shifts to upcoming US CPI data, as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential US government shutdown which may have an impact on the US Dollar. This creates a complex environment where the euro’s value is influenced by both European and US economic factors, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming data releases.
JAPANESE YEN is experiencing fluctuations as investors weigh verbal interventions from Japanese authorities and the potential economic impact of Prime Minister Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policies. Recent strength in the Yen, fueled by Takaichi’s election victory and expectations of higher fiscal spending and tax cuts, has led markets to anticipate increased economic growth and a potential normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan through interest rate hikes. Although stronger-than-expected US jobs data initially put pressure on the yen, the anticipation of stimulus measures boosting consumer demand and inflation in Japan is building the case for BOJ rate hikes. The Yen is on track for a strong weekly performance as investors shrug off concerns of high public debt and focus on the positive impact of Takaichi’s stimulus measures. The expectation of near-term rate hikes in Japan, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, is contributing to the Yen’s strength.
CANADIAN DOLLAR is receiving upward pressure from multiple factors, including a robust domestic labor market that has reduced the likelihood of near-term monetary easing by the Bank of Canada. This, coupled with firm commodity prices, particularly oil, strengthens Canada’s trade position and export revenue, further boosting the currency. Additionally, weakness in the US dollar, driven by soft US labor data and reports of reduced Chinese Treasury exposure, alleviates external pressure on the Canadian dollar. However, technical analysis suggests the USD/CAD pair remains in a descending channel, indicating a potentially persistent bearish bias that could temper gains.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR is experiencing upward pressure as recent economic data and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) communications signal a potential for further interest rate hikes. The RBA’s hawkish stance, driven by persistent inflation concerns and rising inflation expectations, contrasts with the monetary policy outlook of the US Federal Reserve, creating a divergence that has already strengthened the AUD/USD exchange rate. While positive US employment data provided some support to the US Dollar, the market is anticipating the US CPI report for a clearer indication of the Federal Reserve’s future actions. Overall, the expectation of continued monetary tightening by the RBA is likely to support the Australian Dollar’s value in the near term.
DOW JONES is poised for potential gains as indicated by rising US equity futures, with contracts on the Dow reaching a record high. While the broader market faces pressures from a hawkish Federal Reserve response to a strong economy, positive momentum in AI infrastructure and strong performances from companies like Micron and Equinix are creating tailwinds. However, weakness in specific sectors, such as software service providers and Cisco, alongside broader anxieties about AI automation, introduces some volatility. The upcoming January CPI data will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and influencing the Fed’s policy decisions, potentially affecting the Dow’s trajectory.
FTSE 100 experienced a mixed trading day, reaching a new record high despite weaker than anticipated UK GDP figures. Financial stocks, particularly Schroders after its acquisition announcement, and positive earnings from RELX drove gains. However, underperformance compared to other European indices was observed, attributed to declines in property stocks mirroring US real estate weakness and a drop in Unilever’s value following cautious sales growth projections. This suggests the index’s performance is being supported by specific sector strength and corporate activity, while broader economic concerns and sector-specific headwinds are creating countervailing pressures.
DAX is exhibiting positive momentum, reaching levels not seen since mid-January as it recovers from a recent dip. Corporate earnings reports are playing a significant role, with Siemens’ strong performance and boosted guidance contributing to investor confidence. Deutsche Börse’s strategic acquisition and robust financial performance further support the index’s upward trend. However, weakness in individual stocks like Mercedes-Benz and Thyssenkrupp, stemming from profit declines and losses respectively, indicates potential headwinds that could moderate overall gains. The market is also sensitive to broader economic data, such as the US jobs report, suggesting continued volatility.
NIKKEI is exhibiting a complex trading landscape, closing slightly lower while the broader market index gained. Overall sentiment remains positive, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus following a recent election and a shift in investment flows from US equities. The performance of individual stocks varied, with technology and industrial names experiencing both significant gains and losses, reflecting a mixed response to upcoming earnings releases and broader market trends. This suggests a market that is sensitive to both macroeconomic factors and company-specific news.
GOLD’s price is experiencing volatility as market participants adjust their expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data is tempering expectations of aggressive rate cuts, leading to some downward pressure on the precious metal. While it has retreated from recent highs, support remains above $5,000 per ounce, potentially due to ongoing central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty. The upcoming US consumer price index report will be crucial in determining the near-term direction, with its outcome likely influencing the Fed’s rate-cut path and, consequently, the demand for the US Dollar, impacting gold’s value.
OIL is experiencing upward price pressure due to ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. While the US President is reportedly seeking a deal with Iran, the market remains wary of military escalation. However, this bullish sentiment is tempered by recent data indicating a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, suggesting ample supply within the country. OPEC’s unchanged demand growth forecasts and non-OPEC supply outlook further contribute to a mixed outlook, and the market is anticipating the upcoming IEA report which may highlight a potential global surplus, potentially limiting further price increases.