Snapshot: AUD/USD is trading at 0.6898, down 0.19% on the day, pressured by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish hold stance. With inflation still above target and the RBA explicitly retaining the option to hike further, any significant CPI downshift is needed before a pivot to cuts. Today’s US macro calendar offers limited direct domestic catalysts for the Aussie.
- The RBA’s unanimous decision to hold rates at 4.35% and their explicit hawkish bias remain the dominant domestic driver, keeping upward pressure on yields and supporting the AUD’s carry appeal against a backdrop of potential further tightening.
- Watch for US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 ET, which could influence the DXY and US yields, indirectly impacting AUD/USD.
Bias into NY: The AUD faces headwinds from a firming USD, but the RBA’s hawkish hold provides a floor. We favour a range-bound to slightly softer bias into the NY session, with any significant USD strength or risk-off sentiment likely to push AUD/USD towards 0.6850.